Is a Democratic Upset in the AZ State Senate Brewing?

As I write a new batch of votes in Maricopa and Pima Counties were counted, and we are pending another batch, probably around 6pm. So take all of this with the degree of uncertainty I intend to covey, which is considerable.

But I’ve noticed something that just might prove crucial to control of the AZ State Senate, giving Governor Hobbs more leverage over the state legislature. We might have an unexpected majority in the Senate coming in, or at least a power sharing 15-15 split.

There are four interesting districts in the AZ State Senate to watch in the coming hours and days: LD 2 (Casteen), LD 13 (Hans), and even LD 17 (Nickerson) and LD 27 (Barraza).

The two VERY competitive races are LD 2 and LD 13: victory in both would bring Dems into a power sharing arrangement at 15 to 15 in the State Senate.

These two races were expected to be competitive and they are, but importantly right now, they both have less than 80K votes counted thus far. Most similar contested races are trending above 100K votes cast. Combine this fact with both these districts being entirely within Maricopa, and the fact that almost 270K ballots remain to be tabulated in Maricopa alone, and those Election Day mail-in ballot drops have been trending Democratic in both Maricopa and Pima this cycle, and we very well could capture both these Senate seats.

Less likely, but certainly within the realm of possibility are LDs 17 and 27. Capturing either of them could give Democrats a majority in the State Senate.

Starting in LD 17, about 90% of which is in Pima County, Mike Nickerson is almost as close to even with MAGA candidate Justine Wadsack as are Canteen and Hans in their races. With about 70K Election Day mail-in drops pending tabulation in Pima (which is trending heavily Democratic), and only about 15K in Pinal (the opposite…), it is certainly possible – I might go so far as to say likely – that Nickerson could blow past Wadsack and capture this R+8 district for Democrats, which could put us over the top for the majority in the State Senate.

Finally, in a development even I did not expect, we might have a competitive race that rids Arizona of the execrable and insurrectionist coup-plotting, election-denying, corrupt ex-cop, fake elector, frauditor, and fascist thug, Anthony Kern in LD 27, his R+9 district.

This contest is certainly less likely to result in the win for the Ds than the other three I’ve mentioned, but given that there are only about 65K counted ballots in this race thus far, and this district is entirely within Maricopa County with its 270K outstanding ballots to tabulate, an upset in this race is possible, though not likely.

If she’s able to pull out a win, Ms. Barraza will have done a fine service to Arizona in expelling the odious, and likely future criminal convict, Mr. Kern from public office. Thanks to her from me, and all of us here at BlogForArizona, for taking on the task of giving LD 27 voters a choice to evict Mr. Kern from our public life. Bravo!