To some historians or students of history, it can be easy to find some parallels in the situation Joe Biden is in going into 2024 that his predecessor Harry Truman found himself in during the 1948 Presidential Campaign.
Consider the following observations.
- Harry Truman had an ambitious progressive agenda and legislative record including integrating the armed forces, the formation of N.A.T.O./ the post-World War Two international order, and calling for (but not getting) universal health care and aid to education. Likewise, Joe Biden has had an impressive legislative track record with the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law, The CHIPS Act, The Inflation Reduction Act, Gun Safety, protecting veterans health, and the American Rescue Plan that helped vaccinate the country during the Coronavirus and keep the nation’s economy functioning.
- Harry Truman also had to deal with a Do-Nothing House of Representatives, especially on domestic matters, and ran against them in 1948. Joe Biden should do the same with the dysfunctional and fringe MAGA Republican House in 2024.
- In 1948, Soviet Russia was causing havoc with the Berlin Blockade and Truman strongly responded with the Berlin Airlift. Biden is doing the same with the current Russian expansionist designs into Ukraine.
- In 1948, there was a Middle East War when Arab Nations invaded the new state of Israel, and President Truman, despite advice to the contrary from his own Secretary of State, George Marshall, recognized the new Jewish nation. Today, there is another conflict between Israel, Gaza, Southern Lebanon, and the West Bank which the current President, despite having to deal with extremists (terrorist HAMAS and black-shirt settlers) on both sides, has so far largely successfully navigated.
- In 1948, President Truman had to deal with political challenges on his left (Progressive and former FDR Vice President Henry Wallace) and right (Dixicrat Strom Thurmond who felt the party was going too far on Civil Rights.) Today, President Biden may face some pressure from the left (Jill ‘How is Putin today’ Stein is back, Cornell Wilde, and Robert ‘No vaccinations for me today’ Kennedy Jr.) and potentially on the right through No Labels (especially if now retiring Senator Joe Manchin decides to run.)
- In 1948, the polls showed Mr. Truman not prevailing in the Presidential race. In fact, pollsters were so sure that his Republican opponent, Thomas Dewey was going to win that they decided to save money and stopped polling with weeks to go. Today, some polls show the current President behind in some battleground states.
The lesson from all of this is to know your history and like the Biden/Harris Campaign said on a press call last week:
Do not follow the polls. Follow the voters and how they vote.
If that suggestion has the same accuracy in 2024 as it did in 2020, 2022, and 2023, President Biden, despite the pollsters and pundits, will follow the historic path of Harry Truman and win reelection next year.
Fortunately for the President, he has a great record of accomplishment and positions to campaign on.
On the other side, the Republicans have a current front runner in Donald ‘I killed Roe v Wade’ Trump, with his two impeachments, two popular vote losses, two David Duke endorsements, being found liable for sexual assault and business fraud, and four indictments including for his role on the domestic terrorist attack at the Nation’s Capital on January 6, 2021.
If Republicans keep this up and nominate Trump again and the current House leadership keeps acting in a fringe dysfunctional manner, this election may be like 1964, 1972, and 1984 where the incumbent Presidents all won great landslide victories.
Stay Tuned.
To say that after bankrolling a genocide and proposing “ humanitarian pauses” so the lambs can be fattened before the slaughter is a conflict “succesfully navigated” really strains credibility. The US stands for nothing at this time— none of our supposed values are on display whatsoever. If we really want to honestly look at history, we didnt give a damn about the jews in the holocaust and waited interminably to get involved or accept the refugees ( heaven forbid) and now have moved on horribly to pay for yet another genocide where the previous victims are now the victimizers. The populations of the world are seeing that for what it is even if the politicians don’t. Its not about anti- semitism, its about the rogue actions of an untouchable murderous client state that damages the humanity of all of us.
Excuse me. Were the Israelis the ones that attacked Gaza on October 7? Are the Israelis the ones using hospitals, schools, and apartments as bases of operations and the residents as human shields? By the way, how many times has the Israelis given warnings to Gaza residents to evacuate southward? Did Hamas give any such warnings on October 7? How many times has Hamas operatives prevented evacuation? How many Palestinian refugees without foreign passports has neighboring Arab states like Egypt and Jordan opened their borders to on a temporary basis? In a word, zero. While it is tragic that innocent Palestinians have been killed (as well as innocent Israelis) and this current Israelis government is guilty of many things including enabling black shirted extremists on the West Bank and deserves to get kicked out once the war is over, what has the Hamas, Palestinian Authority, and Hezbollah leadership given its people in the territories it has influence over once Israelis occupation has ended. Has it given it Democracy, religious freedom, and economic opportunity when it hasn’t been launching rockets or terrorist strikes against Israel. I don’t think so. I am sick to death of historical illiterates that misuse words like genocide and have no ideas of the complexities of the situation.
For a little history extra credit, Israel helped fund Hamas years ago as a little dirty trick in region.
The back and forth is never-ending in the Middle East, but over 4200 children dead in Gaza is’t “tragic” it’s a war crime.
Dead children are not a “complexity”, dead children on both sides are why this crap never ends.
There have been calls in the Middle East for Israel to be wiped from the earth, and oh, looky-here, there have been and are currently members of the Israeli government who have called for wiping out all Arabs.
Israel ‘s Jerusalem Affairs and Heritage Minister Amichai Eliyahu just this week says nuking Gaza is an option.
That’s not justice, or self defense, that’s blood lust, and I am sick to death of people minimizing atrocities, on both sides.
More than enough hate to go around, you know, as long as we’re scolding people for word choices.
Yes, I agree, like I said in my first comment that the extremists Israelis government needs to go. I wish people would read my comments carefully and not cherry pick what suits them. With regards to war crimes, would Hamas get charged to for their October 7 attack and either hiding behind or preventing those 4200 children from leaving. You tell me.
Yes! The people who committed atrocities on 10/7 should be tracked down, tried, and imprisoned!
The same should go for the people who just murdered thousands if innocent children.
And FFS, of all the countries in the world who should understand an over-reaction, ill planned without a plan for a pullout, it should be the USA. Biden has mentioned this.
Americans have oceans east and west and friendly countries north and south, we do not understand war.
So people in overseas conflicts become numbers in the press instead of humans with families and lives and that pisses me off.
I don’t see good guys on either side, but you’re a good guy for allowing dissenting views here.
Thanks for that, David.
I hope calmer heads prevail, the bad guys on both sides meet justice, but more than anything I hope the bloodshed stops.
BTW David, you seem to be saying that it’s okay to kill the hostages, and I doubt that was your intention.
I did not say it was okay to kill anyone. Where did I write anything like that?
“Would Hamas get charged to for their October 7 attack and either hiding behind or preventing those 4200 children from leaving.”
Hamas may have prevented people from leaving but hamas did not kill those children.
10/7 is on hamas to be sure, how Israel reacts is on Israel.
That’s why I said I knew it wasn’t your intention.
This is an ugly time and I appreciate you letting us comment.