Crossposted from DemocraticDiva.com
I had to interrupt my holiday blogging hiatus to bring you the “Journalist Year in Review” segment from Channel 8 Horizon.
Arizona Republic columnist Laurie Roberts, AZ Capitol Media Service’s Howie Fischer, and KJZZ host Steve Goldstein were asked for their prognostications for 2016, with the winning scores being tallied at the end of next year. The first questions were about the Presidency: who would win their respective party nominations and then the general elections. The three panelists differed on who would win the GOP nod, with Roberts picking Rubio, Fischer Cruz, and Goldstein going with Jeb Bush. All three believe the GOP nominee will prevail narrowly in the electoral college, though Roberts suggested that a third party run by Trump could derail that.
Only white people living in a very rarefied Phoenix establishment bubble could express the kind of confidence this panel did in a GOP victory in 2016. Fischer thinks Cruz(!) will win because Democrats won’t show up to vote for “damaged goods” Hillary Clinton (despite her being about the most popular politician there is among Dem voters). Goldstein thinks Jeb will win Florida and Ohio. Laurie Roberts seemed to be expressing her own wishful thinking when she predicted that Marco Rubio would be swept to 287 electoral votes through his “electability” and because terrorism will be the number one concern of voters throughout 2016.
To be clear, I’m not suggesting the eventual Democratic nominee (who I think will be Hillary but not a single primary vote has been cast yet) is going to have an easy time of it. I’m just saying it takes an incredible level of denial of the demographic changes that have taken place in America to think the GOP will even eke out a win for the weak reasons the Horizon panel offered. The GOP could win, but not without employing a whole bunch of voter suppression and other dirty tricks.
Remember that George W. Bush – the amiable guy you wanted to have a beer with – didn’t even win the popular vote in 2000, in a much more demographically favorable electorate for Republicans and after Al Gore had been reduced to a stiff, boring, beige liberal caricature by the MSM.