Katie Hobbs is maintaining her lead for Secretary of State (Updated)


In the one race still too close to call, Democrat Katie Hobbs is still maintaining a lead of 5,916 votes over political neophyte and Trumpster Steve Gaynor for Secretary of State.

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We are still a few days away from all outstanding ballots being tabulated. Here is the latest from the AZ Data Guru.

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Here is Jim Nintzel of the Tucson Weekly’s take on this race:

The tightest race was between Democrat Katie Hobbs and Republican Steve Gaynor for Arizona Secretary of State. Hobbs, a state lawmaker, had a slim lead of roughly 5,600 votes as of Tuesday morning, but the vast majority of remaining votes were in Maricopa County, where Hobbs was leading Gaynor by about 12,000 votes. If that trend holds, Hobbs could pull off the upset over Gaynor, a political newcomer who loaned his campaign $2.3 million of his own money (and raised just $212,000) in his bid for public office. Hobbs, by contrast, raised just $925,000 for her campaign as of mid-October and spent less than half of Gaynor’s total.

If Hobbs wins, it’s important for Democrats for two reasons: First, the Secretary of State oversees elections and Hobbs will likely be friendlier to voting rights than would Gaynor. Secondly, the Secretary of State is next in line to become governor, which means it’s gonna be a lot harder for Gov. Doug Ducey to resign to seek, oh, a U.S. Senate seat, for example.

Exactly! This is a serious constraint on Ducey’s future plans, because Arizona Republicans will never abide him allowing Democrat Katie Hobbs to succeed to the governorship, and then appointing her Democratic successor to Secretary of State. They would turn on him like a pack of rabid wild dogs. It would appear that Ducey’s hands are now tied for the next four years.

UPDATE: After Thursday’s update, Katie Hobbs has more than doubled her lead to 13,171 votes.

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  1. Well Ducey’s hands would be tied (although that sure didn’t seem to trouble Janet Napolitano, leaving us to the tender mercies of Jan Brewer) but to paraphrase Rorschach from ‘The Watchmen’: “He’s not locked in here with us, we’re locked in with HIM”. If he wants to go on to higher office, he’s going to double down on his GOP credentials, which means “going full Wingnut”.

  2. What a change since General Election night, with Democrats winning statewide offices: Congresswoman/US Senator-elect Krysten Sinema (replacing Republican Jeff Flake), Kathy Hoffman (replacing Republican Diane Douglas) as Superintendent of Public Instruction, former Commissioner Sandra Kennedy getting back on the AZ Corporation Commission. And now State Senator Katie Hobbs hopefully replacing Republican Michele Reagan as Sec. of State. Arizona is turning purple, also with 5 of 9 Congressmembers being Democrats (CD 1, 2, 3, 7 and 9).

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