A tide of inevitability is rolling in.

Joe Biden is expressing certitude that he will prevail, with good and ample reasons.


Here in Arizona, his margin is holding and is statistically almost certain to hold up through the 350K of so remaining early ballots. But it is unlikely to actually matter in the end. Even without Arizona, Biden will soon have the Electoral votes to prevail. It would be psychologically satisfying for Biden and Kelly to both win Arizona, but it is not necessary.

Pennsylvania is an inexorably rising total of Biden ballots as the urban area early ballots are counted. At the rate at which Biden is winning these votes, he is certain to exceed Trump’s total; the only question is by how much? This alone would put Biden over the top regardless of Arizona or Nevada.

Biden enjoys a widening and unassailable lead in Nevada with 90% of the remaining uncounted early ballots are from the heavily Democratic Las Vegas area. Experts see no path to a Trump resurgence there, but the AP remains extra cautious in calling it for Biden due to Fox News’ somewhat early call on Arizona.

In Georgia, Biden’s deficit is closing with mainly Atlanta area ballots left to process. The margin remains razor-thin and could end up with either candidate on top.

Trump’s only remaining path to victory is to retain his leads in Pennsylvania and Georgia and take back either Arizona and Nevada. Joe Biden just needs to keep Arizona and an official call on Nevada, or for Pennsylvania or Georgia to fall into his win column to put him over the top.

Trump will whine and tweet and threaten and file frivolous lawsuits, but his goose in cooked and he knows it.

It’s all over but the crying — and the official announcement of any one of these states by the AP.

Sleep tight tonight. There will be a call on one of these states soon —  most likely tomorrow when Nevada and Pennsylvania have updates scheduled. Once that happens, Biden will claim victory. He may wait until BOTH Nevada and Pennsylvania have been called out of an abundance of caution to be absolutely certain of his claim to victory.

We’ve almost awakened from our long national nightmare. Shooing the orange monster out from under the White House bed will be a project for the morning.

Just keep counting… and Biden will prevail.