Kelly? Really? OK, Prepare to Get Pasted.

By Michael Bryan

I sometimes indulge in a little prognostication. Last week I told some friends that I believed Kelly would win the nomination for the CD8 special.

Check.

Now, I will reveal the rest of my prediction: Kelly will lose the CD8 special by an embarrassing margin.

And then he will lose the CD2 nomination to McSally or Sitton. I have been guessing it will be Sitton because of his name recognition, demonstrable fund-raising potential, and GOP establishment support, but McSally really showed us something with her second-place finish. She could take the nomination. Her mean-girl moves on Kelly's weaknesses really moved the numbers in election-day voting.

The demoralizing effect of getting totally hammered in the special election because, well, their candidate is an idiot, will snap GOP voters out of their TEA-induced haze. Enough GOP voters will realize that gee-wiz "ain't-I-so-totally-full-of-TEA" sound-bites aren't going to win the CD2 seat, and they will turn to someone of substance for the CD2 battle. That someone will be Sitton or McSally.

Antenori's distant third-place finish would cause anyone rational to withdraw now due to lack of support – I don't know if Frank is in the rational category any more. He might stick around and hope to pick up Kelly's TEA base when he crashes and burns in the CD8 special, but with his dismal fund-raising and poor finish, I think Frank is done. He should just return to fucking over southern Arizona in the state Senate. Nobody is going to open their checkbook to him now for more quixotic tilting at the Congressional windmill.

I can't begin to express how happy it would make me if the GOP electorate would make the same stupid choice twice by nominating Kelly or Antenori in the CD2 race, but I just don't see it happening: not even GOP voters are that reality-challenged.

When Sitton or McSally are nominated for the CD race, then we have a genuine horse-race on our hands. I expect a very close race – 1-2% margin.

Of course, GOP voters could always surprise me with their CD2 nomination, and I do so hope they do… Please, please, please, vote Kelly after he gets his ass handed to him by Barber!