Late Hard Primary Break Toward Trumpists Spells Doom for the AZGOP in the General

OH Predictive Insights released a poll conducted on July 27th of over 500 likely GOP voters in AZ with a MOE of 4.37%, with over half having not yet voted. The results are very bad news for the establishment in the AZGOP, and great news for Democrats in the coming General election: AZGOP voters are breaking hard toward Trumpist candidates. This means that the most extreme, indefensible, and least principled and experienced candidates seem to be what the AZGOP wants to present general election voters with in November.

Bad for Arizona, certainly, but perhaps the best Democrats could have hoped for in order to sweep the top of Arizona’s ticket in November.

In the Senate Nomination:

 

Blake Masters has pulled decisively ahead, but given the 22% still undecided and the MOE, this is still an undecided race at this point: Masters, Lamon, and Brnovich could each still pull out a victory, though Brnovich would need a legitimate miracle.

For the Governor Nomination:

It’s beginning to look like the Trumpiest of Trumpers and blatant election denier Kari “#FakeLake” Lake is pulling away from establishment candidate Karrin “Of-course-her-name-is-Karen” Taylor Robson. Though still potentially neck and neck if you add all the undecideds and MOE in Karrin’s column, the odds of favorite at the point is Lake. Salmon has dropped out and endorsed Karrin, so you can probably add his voters to Karrin’s side, as well. Scott “What-is-this-a-baby-shower?” Neely, and Paola “Wouldn’t-poll-observers-from-both-sides-be-great-innovation?” Tullani-Zen remain non-factors.

For the Attorney General Nomination:

Grifting liar Abe “Really-Donald-I’ve-got-a-million-in-the-bank-believe-me” Hamadeh has opened a comfortable lead over the field. If you haven’t heard, Hamadeh tricked Trump into believing he had over a million in the bank with a $1M loan that he paid back immediately after Trump’s endorsement came down from Mar-a-Lago. I gotta hand it to Abe – he grifted the grifter-in-chief in a slick and dirty fashion.

Rodney “Say-anything” Glassman’s 16% share just shows how low-information AZGOP voters can be – they seem not to recognize that Glassman was a Democrat on the Tucson City Council and ran for U.S. Senate as a Democrat, as well. Glassman will say whatever people want to hear to grab power. He has zero principles, yet he’s coming in second merely on the strength of his parroting of Trump’s blatant election lies. Gould, Grove, Shedd, and Cooper seem dead in the water, but with 35% of respondents still undecided anything could happen tomorrow, but the most likely outcome is Hamadeh -by far the weakest candidate in the GOP field in terms of experience and financing – getting the nod. Goody!

For the Secretary of State Nomination:

Trump-backed Jan6 insurrectionist Mark “All-hat, no-integrity” Finchem seems to be sewing up the nomination against the Governor Ducey-endorsed Beau Lane, Michelle “sex-pest” Ugenti-Rita, and Shawnna “No-Presidential-votes-for-you” Bolick. But with a whopping 41% undecided inidcate the results on primary day could be very surprising. Finchem is now getting national and even international press examination due his election lies, attempts to “take back” Arizona’s electoral votes, involvement in Jan6, and general brown-nosing of the losing Trump camp. He will get weaker and weaker as we approach the General election as a result of greater focus on his character, involvement in the insurrection, and lies – so, by all means, AZGOP, nominate THAT guy!

For the State Treasurer Nomination:

The power of incumbency seems to be leading Kimberly “failed-Gubernatorial-candidate” Yee to re-nomination in this race, but it is an extremely low-information affair, with almost half of voters undecided. The question is whether Weninger’s vague message of “No Woke Investments” can overcome the advantage of incumbency. Lerrieri seems unlikely to break out. My money is on the re-nomination of Yee.

SPI Nomination:

This poll is absolutely no help in sorting out who the AZGOP might nominate to challenge Democratic incumbent Kathy Hoffman. Horne and Sapir seem to both be doing essentially the same messaging with similar results, and almost half of voters saying they haven’t decided at this point (or, more likely, haven’t a clue what the SPI even is…); the result is that it’s anyone’s guess who might win the nomination. Horne would seem to have a name recognition advantage due to his prior turns as SPI and AG, if nothing else, but Sapir seems to be surging heavily, and Udall has a deeply appealing name in Arizona (thanks to Democrats…), so it’s really anyone’s guess. If I were a sporting man, I would bet on Horne if I got better than even odds.

The big takeaway is that this poll is very bad news for the AZGOP’s ability to extricate itself from the grip of the felon-in-chief and set itself back on the road of actually being a major political party instead of a fascist cult of personality around a narcissistic sociopath. Presuming that this poll is predictive of anything, it predicts 4 years of wandering, raving-mad in the desert muttering about how the 2020 election was stolen (and now maybe 2022?) for the AZGOP as Democrats step up and run Arizona in the interest of the people of Arizona.