Matters of State Strategies Vice President Matt Grodsky Discusses Democratic Prospects for 2026

The stars are aligning for Democrats…

…If they do the work and avoid complacency.

Those are the sentiments of Matt Grodsky, Vice President of Matters of State Strategies, political consultant, and former Arizona Democratic Party Communications Director, who spoke with Blog for Arizona to discuss Democrats’ electoral prospects heading into the 2026 campaign.

The questions about the 2026 Arizona Democratic Campaign and Mr. Grodsky’s responses are below.

In your opinion, to what extent do you think the recent November election results and the special election on December 2 translate to favorable electoral results for Arizona next year?

“I think it bodes well for us. The results from November and the stuff we saw this week, even though that was technically a Democratic loss. The fact that it was single digits in a place where Democrats weren’t supposed to have a chance. The GOP started overly investing in the 11th hour. I think those are really good tea leaves. The biggest mistake we can make is to take things for granted. We have to just keep our eyes on the prize and keep pushing. We also can’t allow our victories to blind us to issues we still need to fix—disciplined messaging, appeal, registration. So, we have to stay focused on that as well.”

Going into 2026, what are at least three actions Democrats in your mind need to take to achieve victory up and down the ballot?

“Voter Registration, coalition building, and universal values communications. What I mean by that is speaking in a way that brings people into the tent. It’s coupled with that voter registration problem. There aren’t enough of us to get the victories we need in a lot of our down-ballot races, as well as at the top of the ticket. So, we need to bring people into the tent and speak to them about values, not buzzwords. We need to ‘be good to each other.’ I think we hear about infighting and circular firing squads all the time. We’re getting to the point in the season now where we are turning that corner into the election year, and it is time to band together. We must have a unified voice. We’re not going to solve every intra-party dispute in 11 months. So let’s focus on winning the ball game.”

Affordability appears to be a major issue heading into 2026. Leaders like Andy Beshear and Ruben Gallego have said and written that Democrats should offer an optimistic message that focuses on people’s aspirations. You have Rachel Bitecofer and James Carville, who feel that Democrats should channel people’s rage and push an economic populist message. What do you think about that, and what do you think are the three issues Arizona Democrats should run on in 2026?

“I don’t think those two ideas are at odds with each other. I think you can be economically aspirational and channel people’s rage. For example, I’m pissed that the cost of groceries seems to go up every week, and my wife and I have two kids, and it’s just ridiculous, right? But I’d like leaders who build an economic future for us where I don’t have to be stressed about sending my girls to college, and I can afford all these things that we used to take for granted. So that’s both aspirational and using rage as a crux to fuel people– ‘The GOP said they’d bring down costs. They didn’t. It’s worse. You’re struggling. We see it, and we will make it better.’

“One of the three things I think you’ve got to focus on is affordability. I tell Democrats, don’t take the foot off the gas on the Epstein stuff. That’s clearly a wedge issue among the MAGA voting population. Then, I think you kind of come back to this concept of moral character. That’s not going to resonate so well with Die Hard MAGA’s, but there’s that persuadable, I’d say, between 9 and 12 percent moderate Republicans in the state. I think you can still get a majority of Independents who don’t recognize themselves in the current Republican Administration, both at the local and national level, so I think if you appeal to them at that front, you’ll make headway.”

To what extent have Arizona Democrats improved in their voter registration efforts since we last spoke in 2024, and what strategies do you think they still need to incorporate in 2026 to help them to victory?

“I’ll cut to the heart of the issue. We have not closed the gap. We’ve put better players on the field to help us close the gap, and what I mean by that is some of the internal drama that was going on with the state party has now been resolved. We have Charlene Fernandez as the chair. She’s completely focused on this particular issue. She’s made that very clear. I can speak to what the Maricopa County Democratic Party is doing. They are trying some very innovative approaches to start registering people at a faster clip than what we’ve done in the past. I don’t think it’s realistic that we’re going to close the voter registration gap statewide by this time next year. But you can make dents and inroads like what we did between 2017 and 2020, but that’s why you have to do two things at once. You’ve got to register people while messaging in a way that brings people in without sacrificing your values.” 

To what extent have Arizona Democrats improved in social media outreach and messaging since we last spoke in 2024, and what strategies do they still need to incorporate in 2026 to help them to victory/ There are some Democrats who seem to be well-versed on social media, like Representative Yassamin Ansari, and there are others who seem a little bit behind the pace. What would you say?

“I think it can’t hurt for us to be more present on social media across the board, especially with new mediums. One of the big lessons from 2024 is that we weren’t speaking in a lot of ecosystems where young, low-efficacy voters were hanging out. Ansari is obviously a phenomenal example of how best to leverage that stuff, but I do think it sometimes depends on what kind of race you’re running and what your demographic is. For example, Ansari’s district makes a lot of sense. She’s obviously a national figure. She’s operating at the federal level. For candidates like the ones I’m helping right now who are running in places like Legislative District 27, it’s an older demographic. Facebook is probably where they’re hanging out more. So it just depends on where your voter personas are. 

Where have they made improvements? I think their improvements are that they recognized where improvements need to be made, and I’m hedging there only because we essentially lost about eight to nine months with some of the turmoil that the party experienced, so I’m not sure it’s an easy apples-to-apples comparison.”

In your opinion, are the Congressional races in CD-1 and CD-6 the Democrats’ best chance in this coming cycle? I’ve heard some rumblings that Crane might be vulnerable as well, so do you want to touch on that?

“I’d like to think they’re all vulnerable. I’d like to think that the map is working in our favor. We’ve obviously got some variables. We have to consider the No Labels reorganization into the Independent Party, which could cause some problems. I think we need to be laser-focused on CD’s Six and One. If we get a pickup with Eli Crane, that’s awesome. We know there’s going to be money there. It’s all going to depend on the nominee we put up in CD One to see who can defeat Gina Swoboda or whatever candidate they put up on their end. That’s why I’m working on a PAC that’s solely devoted to defining the Republican opposition and not getting behind any one candidate in the Democratic primary at this stage. In CD Six, JoAnna Mendoza is really well-positioned. She’s put together an impressive team. Juan Ciscomani is definitely vulnerable.”

Do you think the Statewide Candidates (Governor Hobbs, Secretary Fontes, Attorney General Mayes, Dr Ruiz for Superintendent, Mansour for Treasurer) are well-positioned for their runs heading to 2026?

“I think they are. I’m really impressed with Ruiz and Mansour. This is the best opportunity for those guys to be successful. For Ruiz’s position, we saw Kathy Hoffman be successful back in 2018. So, it can be done when you’ve got the right momentum. The candidates have to bring people in and appeal to a large swath of voters. For groups operating independent of the campaign, the goal should be to better tie down ballot Republicans to what’s happening at the national level, and I’m not saying make every single thing about Trump because I don’t think that’s always effective. But too often, I think people associate what’s happening in Washington with the top of the ticket, and then they go back home to their respective parties down ballot because they don’t think the two are associated, and we have to do a better job of saying all these guys are connected on the same ideology. They’re enabling the same things, and that’s why you need to defeat them. 

And it’s nice to see people who have kind of been lethargic for the last year to come alive again, but you need to harness that energy and arm them with the right message so they can amplify.”

Are the Democrats positioned finally to take both the State House and the Senate, or one of the other?

“I’m encouraged by the new leadership of the ADLCC. I’m hopeful about these targeted races. I’m hoping the map expands a bit as we get closer to election season.”

“The trick is: Can you get people to associate their down-ballot Republicans with the bad policies that are happening at the national level without making it too much about Trump? That’s the needle you got to thread and the way you do that in a lot of these swing districts is again, you got to go and get that nine to twelve percent GOP crossover and win the Independents, and you do that through universal messaging that’s not sacrificing Democratic values, but it’s framing them in a different way that’s more digestible to folks that aren’t as familiar with what we represent.”

Should the Democratic messaging from Hobbs and the State Legislative Democrats be solely about affordability and ESA reform?

“I think so. I think the ESA one is tricky in terms of how we’ve messaged it. There are quite a few, I’ll say persuadable Republicans, that are sensitive to the cost to tax taxpayers, but they’re also a little agnostic when it comes to the state losing money. So, when we frame it as the state’s going to be bankrupt by this, that doesn’t necessarily resonate. We have to say, look, this is essentially cheating. This is corruption. You guys are using money to do things that are not helping your kids. It’s deception. And it’s taking something away from YOU and YOUR family. Make it about that, and then couple it with the lack of oversight that there is, and I think you’ll get more people engaged, but I would agree. I think ESA, affordability, and broadly coming back to that moral argument about the corrupt nature of today’s Republican party and how that doesn’t jive with Arizona values.”

Is there anything not covered in the previous eight questions that you would like the readers to know about the Arizona Democratic electoral prospects heading into 2026?

“I’d say if you have it within your soul and your schedule, go volunteer with a campaign or your LD–do it. Become a PC and get involved with the party operation.”