Posted by AzBlueMeanie:
At the Arizona Democratic Party state committee meeting this past Saturday, there was some sage advice offered by one politico about the U.S. Senate race: Rodney Glassman does not need to spend his money on bumper stickers; stop by J.D. Hayworth's campaign office for bumper stickers and let him spend his money.
The point made is that the road to Democratic victory in the U.S. Senate race in November runs through a J.D. Hayworth primary victory in August. It's beginning to look like a real possibility.
The independent Public Policy Polling is out with a new poll today with some fascinating poll numbers that destroy the conventional McMedia narrative in Arizona. http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_AZ_428.pdf (full croostabs):
[McCain's] constituents now view Obama’s job performance more favorably than they do that of their longtime senator. 45% of Arizona voters like the job Obama is doing, to 51% who disapprove. While that may seem bad, only 34% approve of how McCain is handling his job to 55% who do not. Republicans only barely approve, 48-39, with independents down at 28-58.
Worse for McCain, his abandonment of the traditional “maverick” label of which he was once proud now has him viewed by 55% as being “a partisan voice for national Republicans,” versus the 28% who see him as “an independent voice for Arizona.” A 35% plurality view him as too conservative; that mark is 45% with moderates.
Being pressed from the right by former Congressman J.D. Hayworth, particularly on immigration, McCain has sided with the new state law cracking down on illegal aliens. This new stance, at odds with his past push for bipartisan immigration reform, has yet to register with voters, a 39% plurality of whom view him as too lenient on immigration. 54% of his party holds that view.
McCain is lucky that his opponents in the Senate race are no more popular than he is. Hayworth is viewed positively by only 23% of voters, with 50% expressing an unfavorable view of him. Democrat Rodney Glassman, a relatively new Tucson City Councilman, is unknown to 78% of voters; those who have an opinion are negative, 7-15.
McCain leads Glassman 49-33 in a test matchup, but Glassman tops Hayworth 42-39.
“McCain is stuck between a rock and a hard place,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “On the one hand, he is seen as soft on immigration. On the other, he is seen as too partisan and too conservative.”
PPP surveyed 813 Arizona voters from April 23rd to 25th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-3.4%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.
Jim Nintzel at the Tucson Weekly has the press release version of the poll. New Poll: McCain's Approval Rating Collapsing:
Public Policy Polling has released a new survey in the Arizona Senate race. The numbers are not good for Sen. John McCain:
John McCain has had a Charlie Crist like drop in his approval numbers over the last six months, seeing double digit declines in his popularity with Democrats, Republicans, and independents alike. As a result a majority of Arizona voters now disapprove of his job performance.
55% of voters disapprove of McCain to just 34% who give him good marks. When PPP polled Arizona in September he was at a positive 48/42 approval spread, so he's dropped 27 points on the margin since that time. McCain's biggest fall in popularity has come with Republicans as he's been more aggressively challenged from the right by J.D. Hayworth. Where 65% gave him good marks last fall now just 48% do, a 17 point decline. He's also gone down 13 points with independents (from 41% to 28%) and 11 points with Democrats (from 32% to 21%.)
McCain has tried to shed his 'maverick' image in order to survive the Republican primary and the numbers indicate that's working, but at the cost of diminished support from Democrats and independents. Just 28% of voters feel that McCain is an 'independent voice for Arizona' while 55% are more inclined to describe him as a 'partisan voice for national Republicans.'
Despite all that McCain still looks like a solid favorite against likely Democratic opponent Rodney Glassman, leading him 49-33. That does represent a significant tightening since September when McCain led 55-25, but doesn't put him in a particularly dire situation. The reason for the disconnect between McCain's approval rating and his support for reelection is that while only 48% of Republicans express approval of his job performance, 78% will still vote for him in a general election.
Democrats' only real shot at winning the seat then is if Hayworth can win the primary, and we find Glassman leading Hayworth 42-39 in such a scenario. Hayworth is extremely unpopular with only 23% of voters holding a favorable opinion of him to 50% with an unfavorable one. Democrats (6/68 favorability) predictably see him in a dim light but he doesn't do a whole lot better with independents (22/49). Republicans are evenly divided with 37% viewing him favorably and 37% unfavorably.
These numbers have very little to do with Glassman at this point, as 78% of voters have no opinion of him.
Democrats have a very good chance here if Hayworth manages to find a way to win the primary…what are the odds of that happening? We'll have those numbers tomorrow.
What this tells me is that voters are already willing to give a relative unknown, Rodney Glassman, the nod over a known quantity they dislike, J.D. Hayworth. It's only Republicans who have any affinity for Hayworth. And since 78% of those polled in this poll have no opinion of Glassman, he has plenty of room to grow. Glassman needs a major media buy to introduce himself to voters with a forward-looking positive message while Senator McNasty and J.D. Hayworth sink into the mud of what is going to be a really ugly GOP primary. (I anticipate the next round of internet ads from these two within 24 hours after this poll). The Tea Party purge of Republicans that has threatened Gov. Charlie Crist (FL) and Sen. Bob Bennett (UT) needs to catch up to John McCain in the Arizona GOP primary.
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“Califirnia”? Is that some kind of existential state? Perhaps you should read the Arizona Republic more often. http://www.azcentral.com/news/election/azelections/articles/2010/06/09/20100609arizona-debt-increases.html
“[L]awmakers borrowed to patch over the holes in the budget. Earlier this year, the state did a sale-leaseback of government buildings, including legislative offices and the Executive Tower where the governor works, to net $735 million in quick cash. With interest, repayment is estimated at $1 billion. Last week, they raised $450 million by issuing bonds against the proceeds of future state Lottery games. That will cost $680 million when interest is added.
This week’s sale includes the Arizona Supreme Court building, which the state just finished buying back from an earlier lease-purchase agreement.
As lawmakers OK’d borrowing to pay for day-to-day expenses, rather than long-term projects, alarm bells started sounding this spring in some corners of the Legislature. But House Appropriations Chairman John Kavanagh, R-Fountain Hills, spoke for many of his colleagues when he said, “The B-word is better than the T-word,” meaning it was better to borrow than to raise taxes.
* * *
In all, lawmakers have borrowed $3.8 billion against the state’s general fund. It will be paid back in installments over the next 20 to 30 years.
In addition to the general-fund debt, the state has an additional $6.3 billion in debt in the form of bonds to pay for highway, university and prison construction. Those projects are repaid out of dedicated lines of money through fees.
But that doesn’t count the $952 million in delayed school payments, which some lawmakers consider debt but others view as closer to a skipped credit-card payment.”
Arizona’s Constitution imposes a $350,000 debt limit for the state of Arizona. This is outdated and inadequate, but it is what it is. The legislature and the courts routinely look the other way as this constitutional provision is violated by the legislature. So much for “law and order.”
Borrowing and debt to finance tax cuts to the wealthy and corporations is the Republican way, both at the federal and state level. What do the kids call it, “generational theft”? If you are truly serious about debt you would want to end the faith based supply-side “trickle down” Republican economics that has ruined the national and state economies, but you don’t strike me as a serious person.
Jan Brewer 85% approval rate. You are the nutball fringe. You could always move to califirnia where the policies of you party are putting the state 10’s of billions of dollars on debt every year. Unfunded state pensions and the cost of illegal immigration will bankrupt the state soon.