UPDATED 11/2: Mike’s Prediction for 2024 Presidential Election

UPDATE 11/2/24: With early vote distribution and the latest polling coming in I am leaning a bit more optimistic about the strength of Harris’ victory. I would now reduce the probability of my most likely scenario (Harris gets 270-276 EC votes) to 60% and next most likely (Harris by 277 to 320 EC votes) up to 35% likelihood. Young voters, women, and crossover traditional conservatives who cannot stomach another vote for Trump are coming on strong and making a stronger showing for Harris more likely. At the end of the day, the biggest tale of the tape in this election looks to be traditionally Republican women. The MAGAs seem to have accidentally created the perfect conditions for the election of our first woman to the Presidency! FYI, just got the news this evening that legendarily accurate Iowa pollster J. Ann Selzer has Harris UP by 3% in freakin’ IOWA! You will note that Iowa doesn’t come into play in my prediction unless we are experiencing a major blowout. This movement is the result of major mo’ among women, especially older white independent women breaking hard for Harris by almost 30%. Evidence of serious late movement and momentum toward Harris continues to build. END UPDATE.

One week out, I’m ready to make predictions as to the electoral outcome of 2024’s presidential race. Unfortunately, in my most likely scenarios, the result is close enough for legal and political maneuvers to affect the eventual disposition of the electoral votes of key states that could possibly affect who is actually seated as our 47th President.

My prediction is that Harris will certainly win, the real question is whether her electoral college vote total will be sufficient to be secure against MAGA rat fuckery in the post-election period. I utterly discount a fair and free election in which Trump wins the electoral college; if that happens it would only result from post-election shenanigans.

Note that in NONE of these scenarios will Trump even come close to Harris in the popular vote – I expect at least a 7 million vote spread for Harris nationally – but, unfortunately, the popular vote doesn’t matter one whit. I would not be at all that surprised by a popular vote spread for Harris up to 10 million nationally.

Unlike many, and in defiance of their ‘swing state’ status, I do not think that the electoral votes of PA, MI, or NV are even remotely in danger of going to the GOP. That would require a very substantial realignment in trends and demographic behavior in those states in favor of the GOP of which I’ve seen no signs at all. I believe that Harris will easily carry these states. There will be some shpilkes early in election night due to reporting patterns and late tabulation results from the major population centers in these states that make it seem Trump is doing well right after poll closure, but it is merely an artifact of tabulation rates and means nothing for the final result. Expect an early claim of victory by Trump based solely on these reporting rate artifacts in these key states.

I am not going into the weeds of my analysis, which would be very tedious and more than most care to know, but based on historical election data analysis, polling, and demographic changes since 2016 and 2020 Presidential elections, midterm and special election results between 2018 and 2024, and the closing messaging and participation rates we’ve seen thus far, I think the most likely result is that below. This result is based on the most conservative of assumptions and extrapolation of current trends and polling.

Most Likely Result (~70% probability):

Harris wins the electoral college vote by narrowly achieving 270+ votes. The Congressional math is difficult for Democrats with these assumptions with a only 25% chance of taking the House back and a negligible (less than 10%) chance to hold the Senate. This result would severely limit the scope and ambition of Harris’ first two years as she would likely lack a governing majority in at least one chamber of Congress, and possibly both.

Unfortunately, this scenario will also result in an electoral college result that is close enough that possible legal and political interventions trying to change the distribution of electoral college votes in even one state could disrupt the eventual disposition of those electoral votes. In short, MAGA will massively bring to bear full-on legal bullshittery, political bullying and intimidation, public lying and disinformation campaigns, and – very likely – terroristic threats and violence in an attempt to change the result in some states.

Note carefully Wisconsin and New Hampshire. I think WI is likely to become THE post-election battleground for that state’s 10 electoral votes. A few reasons: Wisconsin is likely to be the state that puts Harris over 270; Wisconsin is likely to be one of the closest vote counts among the swing states for Harris; the Wisconsin state legislature is GOP-controlled. We have a few strong assets with which to combat any attempt to subvert the electoral vote distribution by MAGA, however: WI Governor Evers is a Democrat and is experienced in close combat within a divided government; and, while non-partisan officially, the WI Supreme Court is known to have a 4 to 3 partisan advantage to the Democrats. Similar circumstances in NH, but that sate only holds 4 EC votes, so would likely not determine the outcome as WI could.

Of course, in this scenario, ANY state that went for Harris could become a target of MAGA post-election fuckery as all that is needed is one or two states to flip their electoral votes for Trump to prevail. I would expect to see some efforts to overturn the result in several ‘blue’ states despite a low probability of success by MAGA.

Next Most Likely Result (~25% Probability):

It is certainly possible that Harris could carry a few more swing states: the three most likely to go for Harris are Arizona, North Carolina, Georgia, or some combination of those states (likely Harris victory in descending order are Arizona, Georgia, then North Carolina), resulting in a much more comfortable electoral college tally for Harris. The assumptions underlying this scenario also make it a toss-up for Democrats to take back the House (~50/50) and to possibly hold the Senate (~25/75). For instance, we are very likely to prevail in at least two additional Congressional districts in Arizona under this scenario.

I’m being just a bit more optimistic regarding turnout, and crossover votes in this scenario- specifically regarding young and first-time voters’, independents’, and traditional Republicans’ voting behavior- resulting in more states coming within reach for Harris. This scenario is not wildly optimistic – only moderately so – but would represent a very strong repudiation of MAGA and Trump – perhaps enough to ease their death grip on the GOP.

This result is no less likely to produce post-election legal and political chaos and fuckery by the MAGAs, unfortunately. Harris would be encroaching further into states whose governments are controlled – at least in part – by the GOP, giving yet more opportunities for MAGA to alter the outcome with legal and political gambits. But their chance of success dramatically lowers at actually affecting the outcome when EC votes are tallied on January 6th 2025, simply because they would have to succeed in more states with their post-election fuckery. Therefore, this scenario is a far safer victory condition for Harris. Cross your fingers!

Possible, But Very Unlikely, Result (~5% probability):

There are a few faint whiffs of a potential blowout wherein political conditions on the ground in a few key states could result in a very surprising result on election day, including the surprisingly competitive US Senate race in TX, and an abortion ballot measure in FL. Note that I think this result is VERY unlikely, but not totally divorced from reality.

In this scenario, developments and trends in those two key large states (TX and FL) that have been polling consistently within a margin of less than 10 points for Trump make it possible for Harris to pull out a spectacular surprise win. This scenario would require a substatial shift of voting behavior during this election, especially among registered Republicans and Republican-leaning independents in more conservative states, both of which I consider quite unlikely to occur, but given Trump’s spectacularly alarming and offensive behavior in these closing weeks, when many American voters are just starting to tune in to the closing messaging of the parties, the odds of such an anomaly may continue rising. If we see a continuation of current media narrative trends, a doubling down by Trump and his campaign on being as divisive, extreme, and offensive as possible, and possibly some spectacular and alarming gaffe by Trump in the coming week, the odds of such a result may rise substantially. If Trump displays some clear and obvious trait or behavior that makes his already quite apparent cognitive decline undeniable, or he has a sudden health crisis, the odds also go up for this result.

This result would indicate that Democrats will also certainly keep the Senate and even improve their margin in that chamber, and will definitely take the House decisively and have a national popular vote margin for Harris of at least 10-12 million votes. This would be a landslide realignment election that would utterly destroy MAGA’s hold on the GOP going forward. A few additional states might also come into reach for Harris under this best-case scenario, such as Iowa and Alaska. Wowza!

That’s all folks! Best of luck and keep the pedal to the metal here in Arizona. Our work over the next week could make the difference between the most likely first scenario and the reasonably likely second scenario. Victory here in AZ is definitely achievable, but it really is a game of inches. Every vote matters! Every Democratic vote at the top of the ticket increases the odds of positive results down the ballot in the US Senate, US House swing districts like those currently held by Schweikert, Crane, and #CiscoMAGA, and our Corporation Commission and Arizona House and Senate! We can make a real difference in the coming week by each doing our little part.

If you aren’t sure how you can help, try Indivisible’s Neighbor to Neighbor relational canvassing program, or another of their self-organizing programs, or jump into the coordinated campaign by attending an Arizona in-person or virtual event through Mobilize. These are easy and quick ways to add your pebble to the mountain!