New Poll: Gov. Hobbs Leads MAGA Challenger Biggs by 15 Points

Democratic Governor Katie Hobbs has opened a sizable lead over Republican nominee Andy Biggs in the race for Arizona Governor, according to the latest statewide survey from HighGround Public Affairs. 

Hobbs now holds a 15-point advantage (49.5% to 34.3%) bolstered by strong numbers among female voters (56.7% Hobbs/28.8% Biggs) and independent voters (54.5% Hobbs/19.3% Biggs).

Biggs, a MAGA zealot, is endorsed by Trump, who represents the failed Iran war, cuts to Medicaid and menacing ICE raids and murders. He actively conspired to prevent Arizona’s votes from being counted in the 2021 election, and later pleaded for a pardon when his actions were discovered.

As Governor since 2023, Hobbs has slashed red tape to make housing more affordable, canceled $2 billion in medical debt for one million Arizonans, delivered more than $100 million in border security funding to local law enforcement agencies, canceled leases of a Saudi Arabian corporation pumping and shipping away Arizona’s groundwater, invested in public education, and repealed Arizona’s 1864 abortion ban.

Dim GOP support for Biggs

“The lackluster turnout for the GOP in the July 21 primary is carrying over to the general election with a sizable 14% of Republican respondents remaining undecided in the Governor’s race and another nearly 12% choosing Hobbs,” HighGround reported.  As a result, Biggs is currently earning only 70% of the Republican vote, contributing to his current gap in support. 

“The Republican electorate has yet to solidify around Biggs for the General,” said Paul Bentz, Senior Vice President of Research and Strategy at HighGround Inc. “Now, Biggs is being forced to fight a two-front battle – trying to solidify his Republican base while also trying to earn crossover support from independents.  These two things run the risk of being at odds with each other.”

On the other hand, Hobbs is currently earning 93% among Democratic voters as well as over 54% of independent and unaffiliated voters.  She is currently leading across all age demographics, with sizable leads among younger voters and a narrow margin among 65 and older voters (45.7% Hobbs/43.1% Biggs).

“The early spending from Hobbs and her supporters has taken its toll on framing her opponent.  These numbers indicate that she’s clearly winning the airtime battle,” explained Bentz. “Early voting is still 6 weeks away, and things tend to tighten up as the time to vote draws closer.  However, it will be a tall task to find a way to not only bolster waning Republican enthusiasm while also communicating with independent and unaffiliated voters about things they care about.”

Chuck Coughlin, President & CEO of HighGround Inc., concluded, “The apparent lack of Republican enthusiasm coupled with independent voters’ anger over affordability, immigration reform policies, and the war in Iran may be creating a toxic environment for Republicans seeking to hold onto authority. It feels a lot like 2010 in reverse.”

Early voting begins on October 5.