On Moving Forward to Defeat Trump Without Biden

I haven’t a crystal ball, and I can no longer reasonably predict the outcome of the 2024 election. I felt there was very good precedent and fundamentals to say that Biden/Harris would win despite the recent media bandwagon about Biden’s age, and the apparent assassination attempt on Trump. But we are in wholly uncharted waters and I no longer no what to think. Nobody really knows what happens now that Biden has withdrawn from the campaign, and anyone who tells you they do based on history or polling is talking out of their ass.

Given that, I do have a few thoughts to share.

We know for a fact that the Democrats have never won a Presidential election following a contested Convention. Based on that alone I will tell you that, in my opinion, if Vice President Harris – now Biden’s endorsement for our party’s nominee – is not chosen on the first ballot at the expected August 7 virtual roll-call to avoid Ohio’s ballot access pit trap, we will lose the Presidency.

My advice and counsel to every delegate is that you were legally pledged to Biden, and with Biden withdrawing his name, you are honor-bound to follow his endorsement. Vote Harris if you want ANY chance to keep the White House this year.

As far as I am aware, there is no reason that the current 4,000+ delegates could not buck the fucking pundits, the attention-seeking and self-aggrandizing political media, and the many elected ninnies who have betrayed our successful incumbent President Biden and just renominate Biden despite his statement of withdrawal. That – in my view – would be the best for the Party and our chances of keeping the White House. Unfortunately, I doubt very much that will happen.

The next best thing would be a follow our President’s endorsement and elect VP Harris on the first ballot with whomever she selects as her VP. In fact, I believe that this is the only outcome that gives us a prayer of holding the White House and preventing an utterly disastrous second Trump Presidency.

I don’t think a Vice Presidential nominee makes a heck of a lot of difference to a Presidential election. Never has. Probably never will. Historically, the effect of a VP has been marginal to negligible. But in an extraordinarily divided and very close race that comes down a few thousand votes in a few swing states as our recent contests have, I admit it could be a factor that decides some voters at the margin and thus the election.

There will be wild speculation about Harris’ VP pick should she be our nominee (which, I reiterate, I believe to be the only hope Democrats have of holding the White House).

There are endless permutations and reasons out there supporting various candidates. I believe only two factors could possibly be decisive: the sex of the nominee, and the state that person represents.

I believe that our strongest possible ticket will be a historic all-female ticket. I believe that with the most important issue facing our polity being the reproductive, civil, and human rights of our female citizens, an all-woman ticket is our strongest counter message to the all-male, all-authoritarian, all-anti-woman ticket offered by the GOP. Therefore, I think Harris should choose another woman as VP.

With the only real contest for President occurring in just a half-dozen or so contested states, choosing a candidate that could move the needle in one or more of those states could prove efficacious. Arizona, Nevada, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Georgia are generally agreed to be the most critical and likely states that could go either way this year. Harris would be wise to choose a VP who could be decisive in ensuring her victory in one of these states.

That is a wide field of possible candidates, I won’t bother to name all the possible contenders who have sufficient national profiles from those states to make credible VP choices, but a few key ones include those states’ Governors and U.S. Senators, and recent candidates for those offices. You can narrow that list further by my first criteria of gender, and a second filter of a high degree of approval and vote margin in their home state as demonstrated by recent electoral results – not just polling. Applying those filters leaves only one possible candidate: Governor Gretchen Whitmer of Michigan (who won re-election by almost a 10-point margin last year). She is the obvious best choice to actually deliver a swing state.

There were other possible contenders, but are eliminated for various reasons. U.S. Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto is eliminated by her VERY close re-election margin in 2023. US Senator Tammy Baldwin of Wisconsin is eliminated because this is her re-election year in a closely divided Senate, so she is badly needed where she is – otherwise, she would be a contender. Governor Katie Hobbs is eliminated by her narrow victory and relative inexperience in office. Stacey Abrams is eliminated by her consistent narrow losses in statewide Georgia races.

Arizona Senator Mark Kelly and Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro are candidates that would be anyone’s short list, but are not considered here because of their gender. I just don’t think a male VP is our strongest choice. I could be wrong, of course, and Harris and her advisors might evaluate the race differently, in which case they are both strong contenders. Governor Shapiro would be the superior candidate based on his larger margin of victory (almost 15 points, but against a VERY flawed opponent candidate, compared to Kelly’s sub-5% margin but against a slightly less flawed opponent).

To the extent that I make any prediction or recommendation, I think the strongest choice for VP is Governor Whitmer.

There is, of course, one more candidate that would be compelling and reassuring to many, but whom I would caution against: Hillary Rodham Clinton. This would be the ‘elder statesman’ as VP strategy which worked for Obama/Biden and Bush/Cheney. Faced with a relatively young Presidential nominee who is perceived as being light on executive experience (which in Harris’ case is a false impression BTW), this approach has clearly worked in the past.

Allow me to elucidate why this would be unwise, in my view. Clinton has a ton of baggage that the GOP could exploit to pull focus from Harris, she doesn’t deliver a swing state, and she does not enjoy a demonstrated electoral advantage being far too long out of electoral politics. She did carry the popular vote nationally in 2016, but that is now almost a decade ago, which is forever in electoral time. Her negatives are extremely high, with most of the electorate’s views on her being well-fixed, and those views cannot be moved within the time available before voting begins in the 2024 election. Her inability to decisively influence a swing state is obvious: she doesn’t, and hasn’t, represented any current swing state.

Clinton would be a comforting choice to many, but her negatives far outweigh any positive contribution to the ticket. Her name might give some comfort to old-guard Dem voters, but she doesn’t actually deliver as much executive experience as Whitmer (Clinton has never been a Governor) or, indeed, as does Harris herself (who has been VP for four years in a very successful Presidential Administration), she simply doesn’t deliver as much electoral potential upside as does Whitmer, and Clinton brings tons of old baggage better left behind to the ticket that would require far too much effort and money to budge.

Clinton would, in my view, fail to deliver any important votes and would drag down the ticket. She would be a disastrous choice, but one that could prove seductive to many Democrats. Avoid at all costs, in my view!

I am deeply and bitterly disappointed that Biden has withdrawn from the race: I believe he would have almost certainly prevailed, despite current polling and age concerns (this is exactly what VPs and the 25th Amendment are for, after all), especially against the both uniquely and deeply flawed nominees of the Trump/Vance ticket. In fact, it is the widely held opinion of many in the GOP and MAGA movement that Biden’s exit is overwhelmingly positive for Trump, despite any claims to the contrary. Fascists and authoritarians worldwide are celebrating Biden’s withdrawal as a decisive victory for unfreedom and in weakening America, our democracy, and our alliances. I believe that future internet historians will find that the media bandwagon that drove out Biden was helped immensely by foreign information ops through social media. But assuming Biden is no longer an option, this is my thought: Harris/Whitmer is now the Democratic Party’s most likely path to victory.


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6 thoughts on “On Moving Forward to Defeat Trump Without Biden”

  1. I like Governor Andy Beshear of Kentucky. Like Harris, he has also served as Attorney General in his state.

    JD Vance is a Peter Thiel puppet. Beshear comes from the same part of our country, but he actually represents working people.

  2. Oh yeah, since Roe is a huge issue this time around, a woman at the top of the ticket is fantastic.

    And Harris won’t need to be in bed by 8pm or take a lot of “rest days”, as Biden has said he needs.

    Don’t @ me for that, it was Joe himself who said that.

    The MSM has been all in for the convicted rapist/felon and have been giving him nonstop coverage even after he lost.

    Maybe a black woman running for President of the United States of America would shake things up and take away some of that free airtime.

    I mean, a woman, running against a convicted rapist….damn, that’s heavy.

  3. I think the VP needs to be a white dude.

    I’d rather have an all female ticket, don’t care about race because caring about race is what stupid people do, but there are a lot of people who still think women are too emotional, and people tend to like people who look like them.

    Which is f’n hilarious after nine years of convicted rapist and felon Donald J. Trump’s many many tantrums. LOL.

    But really, whoever can get Harris over the line with those 80,000 or so voters who actually matter to the Electoral College BS thing is the best choice.

    Hey, fun fact, convicted rapist and felon Donald J Trump donated to Harris campaigns in the past, twice. Ha!

    Let’s dig in and get this done! Saving democracy with the bonus of convicted rapist and felon losing to a black woman…OMG, I’m so proud to be an American right now.

    • I think it is a mistake to favor outcomes that you think OTHER people would want or approve: support what YOU want!

      • I completely disagree. You absolutely must look at what other people want. In the most simple mathematical terms, you are one vote and “OTHER people” are millions more. It is political malpractice to do anything else.

      • Good point, and I am not a dem strategist anyway.

        Out of all the names I’ve heard, I’d pick Whitmer.

        Us dudes haven’t solved all the world’s problems and it’s not like we haven’t had enough time.

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