Pederson Within MoE of Kyl

The latest Zogby Interactive polling is showing Democrat Jim Pederson within the margins of error of Jon Kyl in the Arizona Senate contest. These numbers come before people are even paying much attention to this race, and before the widely-expected air war between these two well-funded candidates, in a race that may well decide control of the Senate.

Jim Pederson is polling at 42.1%, his numbers reflecting a slow but steady gain since polling began on this race. Jon Kyl is polling at 47.1%, well below the 50% mark generally considered an indicator of vulnerability in an incumbent, and reflecting a steady loss over time. The margin of error for this poll is quite high, 3.8%, giving a confidence interval which is larger (7.6%) than the difference between the candidates (5%). This poll means that Pederson has now pulled into a statistical dead heat with the incumbent Kyl, fully 6 months before the election.

This portends only one thing for the GOP: doom.

0 responses to “Pederson Within MoE of Kyl

  1. Francine Shacter

    “Why would anyone support him?” Because he’s a democrat?

  2. Pederson looks like another Ben Nelson or Mary Landrieu. Why would anybody support him?

  3. Psst. It’s Zogby Interactive. it’s about as accurate as those web polls on CNN. Maybe less.

    I’d like to see Kyl go down, but this poll has a laughable track record.

  4. Kralmajales

    The problem that Kyl has is Bush. He is almost indistinguishable from him when you look at his votes. I think that, as hard as it is to beat an incumbent, he is in real trouble.

    The fascinating thing is that I heard him on NPR talking about tough enforcement on the border, but also guest-worker program of sorts. Is this the beginning of the triangulating for Kyl? Don’t let him reinvent himself folks!!!!

  5. You’re absolutely right about Kyl being in trouble, even though it’s early in the election year. Kyl has had an approval problem for quite some time. Positive constituent approval ratings complied by StatsUSA have consistently placed Kyl near the bottom of the entire Senate.

    What’s more, if he gets himself too closely aligned with the paleoconservatives on the immigration issue any appeal he has to the political “center” will erode quickly.

    Pederson needs to get his campaign moving because this is a race that can be won!

  6. I hope the poll reflects the general trend of voters in Arizona,if so it looks very good for us this year. We can pick up McCains seat in the next election also as he runs for President. Carl Hayden was a Democratic Institution in The Senate from Arizona , before Goldwater, it would be nice to see Arizona reflecting another side of its History.