The latest Zogby Interactive polling is showing Democrat Jim Pederson within the margins of error of Jon Kyl in the Arizona Senate contest. These numbers come before people are even paying much attention to this race, and before the widely-expected air war between these two well-funded candidates, in a race that may well decide control of the Senate.
Jim Pederson is polling at 42.1%, his numbers reflecting a slow but steady gain since polling began on this race. Jon Kyl is polling at 47.1%, well below the 50% mark generally considered an indicator of vulnerability in an incumbent, and reflecting a steady loss over time. The margin of error for this poll is quite high, 3.8%, giving a confidence interval which is larger (7.6%) than the difference between the candidates (5%). This poll means that Pederson has now pulled into a statistical dead heat with the incumbent Kyl, fully 6 months before the election.
This portends only one thing for the GOP: doom.