Prediction: AZ09: Sinema Wins In a Walk


The NRCC has Kyrsten Sinema high on its list of targets for this fall. And they’re already spending big on attack ads.

That may be the best thing that ever happened to her.

Wait? What? Getting attacked is a good thing?

Yes, in this case. I’ve heard the radio version of the NRCC’s attack ads. Apparently, the NRCC has decided that the Affordable Care Act is so terrible in the minds of AZ09 voters that no explanation is necessary. So, the entire ad is devoted to connecting Kyrsten to the ACA, which the NRCC accomplishes by portraying her as having outsized influence. Seems to me that when you say that about a freshman rep, you’ve just done her a whopping favor. The impression the ad leaves is that “Sinema gets things done.”

So, based on the delusional belief that the hot button for persuadable voters in the district is their staunch opposition to the ACA,   the NRCC is spending millions vouching for Sinema’s effectiveness. Geniuses.

It reminds me of the ads the DCCC played in my race, which were beyond cringeworthy. But my assessment of the DCCC’s crappy ads was that they were ineffective and nothing more. The NRCC’s ads attacking Sinema, by contrast, are flat-out counter-productive. They’re helping her.

Unless the NRCC’s strategy is to lull Kyrsten into a false sense of security, she has little to be concerned about there. And if the NRCC is where her opponent ultimately finds advice, which is highly likely, she has little to worry about on that front either.