It appears that GOP tribalism coupled with a statewide GOP voter registration edge of over a 100,000 registrants is still all it takes to win statewide races in Arizona.
Well, that and massive amounts of “dark money” from out of state anonymous sources.
Republicans appear to have won all the statewide offices, but the Superintendent of Public Instruction race remains too close to call.
Democrats appear to have picked up some seats in the Arizona House. Several races remain too close to call, and there are reportedly over 500,000 ballots yet to be be verified and counted.
Democrats may have narrowed the GOP margin in the legislature, which could force the GOP leadership to negotiate and compromise with the Democratic leadership to pass legislation, instead of simply ignoring Democrats and the constituents they represent. This is a good thing.
Current estimated voter turnout is 46.67%. When more than half of registered voters cannot take the time to fill out a ballot — not including the large number of eligible voting age persons not registered to vote — the health of our democracy is in serious jeopardy. You have to do better Arizona!
(These are the overnight numbers).
Governor
Doug Ducey (R) 57.8%
David Garcia (D) 40.2%
Secretary of State
Steve Gaynor (R) 51.3%
Katie Hobbs (D) 48.7%
Attorney General
Mark Brnovich (R) 53.4%
January Contreras (D) 46.6%
Treasurer
Kimberlee Yee (R) 55.6%
Mark Manoil (D) 44.4%
Superintendent of Public Instruction
Frank Riggs (R) 837,396
Kathy Hoffman (D) 830,676
–Too close to call
Mine Inspector
Joe Hart (R) 53.3%
Bill Pearce (D) 46.7%
Corporation Commission (2 seats)
Justin Olson (R) 25.96%
Rodney Glassman (R) 25.88%
Sandara Kennedy (D) 24.98%
Kiana Sears (D) 23.18%
Arizona Legislature
District 1
Karen Fann (R) Senate 70.1 %
Joan Craycraft (D) Senate 29.9 %
Noel Campbell (R) House 35.29%
David Stringer (R) House 33.74%
Jan Manolis (D) House 16.15%
Ed Gogek (D) House 14.83%
District 2
Andrea Dalessandro (D) Senate 57.8 %
Shelley Kais (R) Senate 42.2 %
Rosanna Gabaldón (D) House 28.42%
Daniel Hernandez, Jr. (D) House 28.29%
Christopher Ackerley (R) House 21.81%
Anthony Sizer (R) House 21.48%
District 3
Sally Ann Gonzales (D) Senate 100 %
Alma Hernandez (D) House 45.85%
Andres Cano (D) House 42.06%
Beryl Baker (GRN) House 12.09%
District 4
Lisa Otondo (D) Senate 100 %
Charlene Fernandez (D) House 48.67%
Geraldine Peten (D) House 35.56%
Sara Mae Williams (GRN) 15.77%
District 5
Sonny Borrelli (R) Senate 75.5 %
J’aime Morgaine (D) Senate 24.5 %
Regina Cobb (R) House 44.84%
Leo Biasciucci (R) House 37.56%
Mary McCord Robinson (D) House 17.60%
District 6
Sylvia Allen (R) Senate 52 %
Wade Carlisle (D) Senate 48 %
Walt Blackman (R) House 26.89%
Bob Thorpe (R) House 26.39%
Felicia French (D) House 25.06%
Robert “Bobby” Tyler (D) House 21.66%
District 7
Jamescita Peshlakai (D) Senate 67.2%
John Mealer (R) Senate 32.8%
Myron Tsosie (D) House 41.37%
Arlando Teller (D) House 31.81%
Doyel Shamley (R) House 26.82%
District 8
Frank Pratt (R) Senate 58 %
Sharon Girard (D) Senate 42 %
David Cook (R) House 30.16%
Thomas Shope (R) House 29.87%
Carmen Casillas (D) House 20.68%
Linda Gross (D) House 19.29%
District 9
Victoria Steele (D) Senate 61.6 %
Randy Fleenor (R) Senate 38.4 %
Randall Friese (D) House 36.53%
Pamela Powers Hannley (D) House 35.79%
Ana Henderson (R) House 27.68%
District 10
David Bradley (D) Senate 57.1 %
Marilyn Wiles (R) Senate 42.9 %
Kirsten Engel (D) House 35.05%
Domingo DeGrazia (D) House 30.42%
Todd Clodfelter (R) House 28.74%
Joshua Reilly (GRN) House 5.79%
District 11
Vince Leach (R) Senate 55.7 %
Ralph Atchue (D) Senate 43.4 %
Mohammad Arif (GRN) Senate 0.98%
Mark Finchem (R) House 28.72%
Bret Roberts (R) House 28.64%
Hollace Lyon (D) House 21.68%
Marcela Quiroz (D) House 20.95%
District 12
Eddie Farnsworth (R) Senate 58.7 %
Elizabeth Brown (D) Senate 41.3 %
Warren Peterson (R) House 30.62%
Travis Grantham (R) House 30.40%
Lynsey Robinson (D) House 20.03%
Joseph Bisaccia (D) House 18.95%
District 13
Sine Kerr (R) Senate 63.8 %
Michelle Harris (D) Senate 36.2 %
Timothy Dunn (R) House 40.01%
Joanne Osborne (R) House 37.05%
Vasle “Thomas” Tzitzura (D) House 22.94%
District 14
David Gowan (R) Senate 61.2 %
Jaime Alvarez (D) Senate 38.8 %
Gail Griffin (R) House 33.03%
Becky Nutt (R) House 32.52%
Shelley Renne-Leon (D) House 17.62%
Robert “Bob” Karp (D) House 16.83%
District 15
Heather Carter (R) Senate 60.8 %
Kristin Dybvig-Pawelko (D) Senate 39.2 %
Nancy Barto (R) House 29.42%
John Allen (R) House 28.44%
Jennifer Samuels (D) House 21.41%
Julie Gunnigle (D) House 20.73%
District 16
David Farnsworth (R) Senate 62.7 %
Ben Carmitchel (D) Senate 37.3 %
Kelly Townsend (R) House 36.19%
John Fillmore (R) House 35.54%
Sharon Stinard (D) House 22.17%
Richard Grayson (GRN) 8.10%
District 17
J.D. Mesnard (R) Senate 52.5 %
Steven Weichert (D) Senate 47.5 %
Jeff Weninger (R) House 34.75%
Jennifer Pawlik (D) House 32.86%
Nora Ellen (R) House 32.39%
District 18
Sean Bowie (D) Senate 55.36%
Frank Schmuck (R) Senate 44.64%
Denise “Mitzi” Epstein (D) House 27.65%
Jennifer Jermaine (D) House 26.39%
Jill Norgaard (R) House 24.11%
Greg Patterson (R) House 21.86%
District 19
Lupe Chavira Conteras (D) Senate 100 %
Jose Diego Espinoza (D) House 53.19%
Lorenzo Sierra (D) House 46.81%
District 20
Paul Boyer (R) Senate 49.95%
Douglas Ervin (D) Senate 43.30%
Doug Quelland (IND) Senate 6.74%
Anthony Kern (R) House 27.00%
Shawnna Bolick (R) House 26.51%
Elaine Chandler (D) House 23.62%
Christopher Gilfillan (D) House 22.87%
District 21
Richard “Rick” Gray (R) Senate 53.33%
Kathy Knecht (IND) Senate 46.67%
Kevin Payne (R) House 29.41%
Tony Rivero (R) House 27.75%
Gilbert Romero (D) House 21.51%
Bradley Hughes (D) House 21.32%
District 22
David Livingston (R) Senate 65.01%
Wendy Garcia (D) Senate 35.99%
Benjamin Toma (R) House 31.82%
Frank Carroll (R) House 31.64%
Teri Sarmiento (D) House 18.52%
Valerie Harris (D) House 18.03%
District 23
Michelle Ugenti-Rita (R) Senate 58.13%
Daria Lohman (D) Senate 37.51%
Christopher “Chris’ Leone (IND) Senate 4.36%
John Kavanagh (R) House 37.05%
Jay Lawrence (R) House 33.67%
Eric Kurland (D) House 29.28%
District 24
Lela Alston (D) Senate 70.19%
Vickie Alger (R) Senate 29.81%
Jennifer Longdon (D) House 40.25%
Amish Shaw (D) House 39.20%
David Alger (R) House 20.55%
District 25
Tyler Pace (R) Senate 61.61%
Kathy Mohr-Almeida (D) Senate 38.39%
Michelle Udall (R) House 39.77%
Russell “Rusty” Bowers (R) House 35.93%
Johnny Martin (D) House 24.30%
District 26
Juan Mendez (D) Senate 63.74%
Rebecca Speakman (R) Senate 36.26%
Athena Salman (D) House 38.94%
Isela Blanc (D) House 37.06%
Raymond Speakman (R) House 24.01%
District 27
Rebecca Rios (D) Senate 100 %
Diego Rodriguez (D) House 52.43%
Reginald Bolding (D) House 47.57%
District 28
Kate Brophie McGee (R) Senate 51.13%
Christine Marsh (D) Senate 48.87%
Kelli Butler (D) House 27.33%
Aaron Lieberman (D) House 24.68%
Maria Syms (R) House 24.18%
Kathy Pappas Petsas (R) House 23.82%
District 29
Martin Quezada (D) Senate 100 %
César Chávez (D) House 54.99%
Richard Andrade (D) House 45.01%
District 30
Otonio “Tony” Navarette (D) Senate 100 %
Raquel Teran (D) House 37.69%
Robert Meza, Jr. (D) House 36.56%
Gary Spears (R) House 25.75%
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LD 9 State Senator Steve Farley reporting on FB that Senate split is 17-13 in favor of Rs, but House is closer at 31-29 with Rs on top. He says to watch LD 17 and 28 in State Senate as the races are close (with both Rs leading at the present). Final tally of all ballots not due till next Wednesday.
Political Thunderdome in LD 11. There is no better evidence than this of the stark partisan divides that now define our age: Of the approximately 60,000 Republican votes cast in Arizona’s LD 11, only 156 decided to split their ticket and vote for one Republican and not the other. That’s literally 0.2% party crossover. It’s not much better on the dem side with only 2.5% party crossover in the house race that calls on voters to choose their top two candidates out of a field of 4 – 2 R’s and 2 D’s. This is not only shockingly low crossover aka bipartisan aka moderate voting behavior in this race, it has resulted despite a vast difference in all of the candidates running this cycle.
To begin with, Mark Finchem (R) has been the incumbent for some time, is skilled in debate and public speaking, and matches his district’s culture fairly well. He is, however, an outsider (originally from Michigan) who has held down a mismatch of jobs without much success, outside his recent stint in politics.
Another outsider, Holly Lyon (D), has served our country from the time she graduated college, first as a teacher and then as an Air Force officer turned Colonel. She commanded two tours of duty before sitting on the budget and strategic planning committee for the Air Force. Also, like Finchem, Lyon’s plain spoken nuts and bolts know how of government affairs is a cultural match with Arizona’s LD 11. Lyon ran against Finchem before – in 2014 – coming up only 5% short when the district as a whole voted overwhelmingly republican.
Given the political winds at the back of dems nationwide, and the movement of women joining the political fray with much success, One would have supposed that Finchem and Lyon were well positioned to glide to victory in 2018.
Juxtaposed to these two quality candidates are two neophytes to the state political sphere – Brett Roberts (R) and Marcela Quiroz (D). Both have experience in government – Roberts as a sheriff and Quiroz as a teacher in the small city of Maricopa. Neither performed particularly well in the debates. With education of concern this election, Roberts was about as inarticulate as one can be about this hot button issue (and everything else, for that matter), while Quiroz could only speak in generalities to this issue and really nothing else. Quiroz has a social media presence of 256 followers; Roberts didn’t even have a website for his campaign.
The dearth of evidence to the contrary, Roberts and Quiroz should have been early outs. But that’s not what happened. Roberts got about the exact same number of votes as Finchem, with Lyon and Quiroz, themselves basically tied too, on the outside looking in.
When there is a gap this large between all other factors and partisanship, we have entered the domain of political thunderdome. Fight it out – no political malfeasance barred. All that matters is who has the bigger stick.