Public Policy Polling: Carmona trails Flake by just 2 points

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Posted by AzBlueMeanie:

The Arizona Republic reports at its AZ/DC Blog – azdc – Poll shows Carmona trailing Flake by just 2 points:

A new poll out out Tuesday shows Democratic former U.S. Surgeon General Richard Carmona in a dead heat with U.S. Rep. Jeff Flake, R-Ariz., in the race for retiring U.S. Sen. Jon Kyl's seat.

Republicans are sure to be skeptical of the survey of 791 likely Arizona voters, which was conducted June 4 and June 5 by the Democratic firm Public Policy Polling for the liberal organization Project New America. The pollsters said they oversampled registered independents.

The poll shows Flake leading Carmona by a narrow 43 percent to 41 percent. The poll's margin of error is plus or minus 3.5 percent, making the match-up a statistical tie.

[PPP was not polling the GOP primary between Jeff Flake and three Republican opponents including self-funded millionaire Wil Cardon.]

The survey also indicates that President Barack Obama is behind Republican nominee-in-waiting Mitt Romney by a similarly close 3 percentage points, 49 percent to 46 percent.

Both races are within the poll’s +/-3.5% margin of error.

From the poll release http://projectnewamerica.com/PNAAZPollJune2012.pdf:

Strong support from independent voters has Democratic candidates within striking distance of Republicans in Arizona.

* * *

“Moderate independent voters make up a substantial portion of the Arizona electorate, and it’s very difficult to win elections without their support,” said Jill Hanauer, President of Project New America.

“This poll shows that Democrats are gaining ground among independent voters. If this trend continues, we should expect Arizona to remain competitive through November.”

PNA also conducted an oversample of 529 self-identified independent voters. The oversample made clear that the Republican brand is unpopular among this critical group.

The 23% of voters who describe themselves as independent from either political party have decidedly negative opinions of prominent GOP officials. Just 35% of these voters have a positive opinion of Mitt Romney, compared to 53% who have a negative opinion of him. Republican Governor Jan Brewer has a similar 36-54 approve-disapprove rating among independents.

Obama, meanwhile, has a positive 51-43 approval rating among independent voters, who prefer the President over Romney by 51-39.

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8 thoughts on “Public Policy Polling: Carmona trails Flake by just 2 points”

  3. I think people are just sick and tired and all the hair on fire antics. These people are SUPPOSED to work FOR US, and they do everything but. When jobs was supposed to be the focus, we have had everything BUT that be on the agenda here. Lawsuits and stripping away of rights,immigration lies,abortion,cronies working together to screw over the people of AZ for their personal benefit. I think that Arizonans are sick of it, I think they want a state govt that works for the people and we’re just about done with the RW screw job. Maybe people are beginning to pay attention…I want to know what the hell took so long!

    Thanks for the inside data…people need to wake up and get to work so that we can move the state out of the Dark Ages and start doing for the people. Not corporations, not cronies.I know I’m LONG PAST DONE with these incompetent idiots.

  4. While the focus thus far has been on the U.S. Senate race, there is another interesting data set in this survey.

    It shows that the Legislature is unpopular – no surprise there. Sadly it shows the Legislative Dems are just as unpopular as the Rs.

    BUT, in a generic matchup, voters said there just about as ready to vote for an unnamed D as they are an unnamed R. The spread is only three points. Get busy, Dems!

  6. Tawnie, sometimes ya’ just gotta put on the big kid underwear and vote for who you consider the least worst. But in this case, I think Dr. Carmona is heads above any of the other choices we’ve had recently R or Dem (ah yes, Rodney Glassman of the formerly R registration whose poppa donated so freely to McCain). I welcome ANYONE in DC who is as intelligent as Carmona with his background and resume.

  7. well, Tawnie, you may not have preferred Dr. Carmona, but I’m pretty damn sure you’ll HATE the RW nut job! Would like to see Dr. Carmona represent AZ in Washington, because right now, NO ONE there even comes CLOSE to representing me.I hope that he will have your vote, regardless of whether or not he was your first choice.

  8. There is no difference between them. Carmona is a blue dog and not even close to being a democrat. The stupid DCCC made the real democrat drop out

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