Quick takes on recent poll numbers

Here are some recent poll numbers that you may not have seen, but that effect voter behavior. Consumer Confidence Up in August to Highest Level in a Year:

economy“Consumer confidence improved in August to its highest level in nearly a year, after a marginal decline in July,” said Lynn Franco, director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board. “Consumers’ assessment of both current business and labor market conditions was considerably more favorable than last month. Short-term expectations regarding business and employment conditions, as well as personal income prospects, also improved, suggesting the possibility of a moderate pick-up in growth in the coming months.”

Americans are feeling the best about the U.S. economy that they have since before the 2008 economic collapse, a CNN/ORC poll released Friday has found. Poll: Economic outlook best in 9 years:

In a reflection of rising optimism, 53% of Americans say economic conditions in the US are good, up from the 45% who felt that way in June. It’s the highest number since September 2007, before the 2008 economic collapse.

The poll also showed that President Barack Obama continues to have majority approval ratings, at 51%. His approval rating has been at or above 50% since February, the longest stretch of his presidency since his first year in office.

The new Washington Post-ABC News poll finds 58 percent of Americans overall approve of President Obama’s job performance, the highest since July 2009 and continuing the positive movement since December when he stood at 45 percent. Obama’s soaring approval numbers are very good news for Hillary Clinton:

We’ll start by noting that Obama’s approval rating in our survey is quite a bit higher than in other recent polls. Earlier this month, CNN-ORC had him at 51 percent. At the end of August, Fox had him at 54. But even in Gallup’s weekly averages, Obama has been over 50 percent for most of this year.

In the past, we’ve seen a good correlation between final vote share and Post-ABC approval polling — even when the approval rating was tested in August or September of the same year. The line on the graphs below shows that correlation for years that we have data: As presidential approval improves, so does the vote share of the president’s party.

In other words, there’s a strong correlation between how people feel about Obama and how they feel about Clinton . . . If the link between support for Clinton and approval for Obama doesn’t change, an increase in his approval numbers means an increase in her support.

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[I]f you’re running for president to succeed your party’s incumbent, history would suggest that such a task is much easier with Obama’s 2016 ratings than Obama’s 2014 numbers.

So Americans are feeling optimistic about the economy and job growth, and approve of President Obama. This is all excellent news for Democrats.

The same Washington Post-ABC News poll finds:

Clinton holds a 46 percent to 41 percent edge over Trump among likely voters, followed by Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson at 9 percent and the Green Party’s Jill Stein at 2 percent.

Clinton’s lead swells to 10 percentage points among the wider swath of registered voters, 45 percent to 35 percent, similar to her 45 percent to 37 percent edge last month.

The Post-ABC poll finds 58 percent of Americans expect Clinton will prevail, though only 18 percent think she will do so easily.

A new NBC News/Wall Street Journal Poll for Arizona finds the race essentially tied. Clinton, Trump Deadlocked in Battleground States: Polls:

In Arizona, which Republicans have carried in every presidential election since 2000, Trump leads Clinton among likely voters by one point, 42 percent to 41 percent. (Among the larger group of all registered voters, it’s Clinton 41 percent, Trump 40 percent.)


The key to winning Arizona is turning out all those voters who are registered to vote, but who do not typically vote. With a marijuana initiative and a minimum wage initiative, and the xenophobic nativist and racist Donald Trump and Joe Arpaio on the ballot, along with their acolytes, this should turn out Democratic base voters and hopefully awaken the slumbering giant of the Latino vote this year.

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