Rasmussen Reports is out with a new poll today Arizona Governor – Rasmussen Reports™:
The race to be Arizona’s next governor is a dead heat.
Arizona is rated a Toss-Up on the Rasmussen Reports 2014 Gubernatorial Scorecard. The race will determine the successor to Republican Jan Brewer who is term-limited. (To see survey question wording, click here.)
Dicey Ducey has reason to be worried. After correcting for the Rasmussen “house effect,” a dead heat means that Dicey Ducey is actually trailing Democrat Fred DuVal, based upon the historical performance of Rasmussen Reports polls over the years.
I have explained to readers over the years with links to numbers guru Nate Silver, formerly at fivethirtyeight.com, why the Rasmussen Reports poll has a “house effect” GOP bias, and is effectively a GOP “narrative” poll.
Here is Nate Silver during the 2010 midterm election. House Effects Render Poll-Reading Difficult | FiveThirtyEight:
Here, in fact, is a demonstration of the house effect that my model is identifying for each of the five most prolific pollsters so far this year — those that have produced at least 15 separate surveys for head-to-head Senate race matchups. (Our methodology for calculating these is described here.)
Rasmussen, thus far, has a Republican-leaning house effect of about 5 and 1/2 points. So if Rasmussen, for example, has a Republican leading by 7 points in a particular race, an average pollster would have the Republican ahead by only 1 or 2 points.
Here the Rasmussen GOP “narrative” is that Dicey Ducey is tied, which is supposed to be good news for him that he is not trailing. Rasmussen could not show Dicey Ducey leading this race even after padding his numbers. A tie is the best they could do.
This means Democrat Fed Duval must be leading.