UPDATE 4/27: Looks like Renzi is putting up a fight. This should be entertaining and embarrassing for the GOP. Every day Renzi hangs on is another day of negative press that helps CD 1’s voters decide that a Democrat might better represent their interests.
Tedski at Rum, Romanism and Rebellion is predicting Renzi’s resignation by tomorrow. I don’t know if it will happen quite that soon, but I wouldn’t be surprised. The signs are all flashing red. The GOP leadership has completely shut Renzi down, allowing him to save face by resigning from his committee positions and caucus funding programs instead of stripping him outright. Renzi is essentially under House arrest (little pun).
I believe the whispers of Renzi’s impending resignation are largely accurate not only because my schaudenfruede runneth over, but because Renzi has made himself a major liability to the GOP’s capo di tuti capo: President Bush. Renzi is focusing yet more light on the Administration’s biggest headache, Attorneygate. The GOP leadership has got to want him out of Congress to minimize his press profile and get ahead of the inevitable calls for his resignation. The GOP leadership’s tolerance for ethical and legal troubles has taken a steep dive since losing their majority, largely on that issue.
If the FBI hadn’t raided the Renzis’ Patriot Insurance Co., there wouldn’t be nearly this pressure: compare Renzi’s dilemma to Wilson and Dominici in NM, who are guilty of much more naked pressure on their USA than is Renzi. Unfortunately for Renzi, the appearance of an attempt to improperly influence a USA combined with a genuine underlying crime that the FBI is serving warrants on and Federal Grand Jury is sitting on equals a get out of Congress free card.
So, our Governor will need to set a special election to replace Renzi, since we are more than 6 months out from a general election and Renzi is not going to survive until next month, let alone the middle of next year. Within 105 days of the resignation, when it comes, there will be primary elections. Given the extremely short time horizon, only those with existing name recognition, political reputation, and lots of friends with money need apply. My money is on Kirkpatrick or Simon for the Democrats.
I think the Republicans are irrelevant unless the national and state parties throw major bank on a candidate, which is certainly possible. Even then, the likelihood of the GOP retaining the seat, as Renzi’s shame unravels in the midst of the special election, seems slim unless the GOP candidate can steer clear of any bruising in the primary and has a compelling story as to why he’s not more of the same.
Within 45 days of the primaries, a general election must be held. If the predictions of a early resignation by Renzi are correct, we could be in general election in CD 1 by September. At that point, Arizona’s Congressional delegation will most likely turn blue as we pick up CD 1, which we should have won 2008, for a 5D/3R delegation.
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Ya! Steve Owens. He’s conservative for a Democrat, he’s the highest profile member of Napolitano’s cabinet, he was Al Gore’s (…money bags) chief of staff when Al was in the Senate, he’s run and won in the areas of this configured district. He has maintained a political machine that he can get up and running in no time.
He is literally going to be a juggernaut when and if he decides to run.
I agree with you LBJ on all counts when it comes to Simon. It wasn’t Renzi’s race to win, it was Simon’s to lose and she blew it! She stunk as a candidate.
The NAMBLA candidate would lose against Renzi even if recent developments had taken place prior to the election. She is stiff, is weak on the issues, and simply can’t win this largely impoverished, rural district – the candidate needs to be a white male, conservative on social issues and able to raise a ton of money. Any ideas?…
AZ-01: Ellen Simon is in!
Ellen Simon formally filed papers with the FEC to run for the tainted Rick Renzi seat. Simon got into the race late in 2006 and still gave the incumbent a scare. Renzi outspent her almost two to one and ran what Campaigns and Elections magazine called the “nastiest campaign” of the year. He still only won with 52% of the vote.
It looks like Renzi will have to step down, leading to a special election. Arizona law requires an election 3 to 5 months from the time the seat is vacated. In a district the size of the state of PA, Ellen would be the obvious front runner with name recognition, an organization and a strong fundraising base.
Now that it’s obvious that the seat can be taken however, everybody wants a piece and the establishment is lining up behind their own. The monied players want a conservative Democrat who will tow the party line and they’re not worried what the voters in the district think.
Ellen jumped into the race against Renzi in 2006 to make sure that the Republicans would have to fight to hold the seat. She got in too late to build the type of network needed in a district as large as this, but she made significant progress. If we start over from scratch with a new candidate, we’ll be throwing away the work that Ellen and her volunteers put in last year.
We can’t afford to move backwards on this district. Ellen is running and she’s our best bet to win.
Nice one, Zelph!
HAVE YOU HEARD OF THE McLIE PARTY?
McCAIN – LIEBERMAN 2008
IT’S YOUR KIND OF PARTY, DWIGHT!
The DEMOCRATIC V REPUBLICAN party thing in 2008 may be just that IF a THIRD Party emerges with a Candidate that can TRUMP BOTH ; because of the Voters being FED UP WITH BOTH!!
Talking to the people on the streets about both Democrats and Republicans it IS possible a third Party could win the White House with a Democratic Presidential Candidate who VOTED FOR THE WAR; and a Republican Presidential Candidate who SUPPORTS THE WAR!
He said today that he won’t resign……maybe he is hoping that AG Gonzo can forestall the investigation for a while longer…. (how many prosecutors can be fired in the next 1-1/2 years, I wonder)
A few quibbles.
Renzi didn’t just “resign” from the Intelligance Comm. Committee rules required that he at least suspend his participation—-in other words he was “fired”.
Renzi, like Gonzalez, may be kept around on the “Don’t throw the punching bag out of the gym” theory.
I would wager he intends to finish out his term, Keeping in mind he is as corrupt as the summer is hot, What personal benefit does he gain in resignation? even a store front lawyer can delay any civil or criminal process till the next election.
while I do not see him seeking another term I imagine he will simply hold up in his office and collect his salary, build up his pension and enjoy the perks.