Tag Archives: AZ attorney general

Arizona became a purple state in 2018

Despite all the gloom and doom post-election day reporting here in Arizona about Democrats having squandered their voter enthusiasm and record turnout, as we approach all the votes finally being counted it appears that Democrats had a very good night after all in turning Arizona purple.

Democratic Rep. Kyrsten Sinema has won the U.S. Senate seat for Democrats for the first time in almost 30 years, and becomes the first woman to serve Arizona in the U.S. Senate.

Former Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick took back CD 2 for the Democrats, giving Democrats a 5-4 lead in Arizona’s congressional delegation.

Nationally, Democrats have currently picked up 31 seats to take back the Congress, with a number of races still to be counted in which Democrats lead in most of those races. See, FiveThirtyEight, We’re Tracking The Unresolved Midterm Races. Yes, there was a “blue wave” election. Democrats could win 40 House seats, the most since Watergate.

UPDATE: As of  November 14, the Democratic lead in the U.S. House popular vote stood at 7.1%, though it may yet inch higher. For comparison purposes, note that in 2010 — which was widely seen as a GOP “wave” cycle — Republicans won the U.S. House popular vote by 6.6%. (h/t Maddow Blog).

While there remain votes to be counted, it is increasingly apparent that Democratic state senator Katie Hobbs will be elected Secretary of State. She currently leads political neophyte and Trumpster Steve Gaynor by 5,667 votes. Hobbs’s vote total has increased with each day of vote counting since election day, and that trend is likely to continue.

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Preliminary Results Arizona State Candidates 2018

It appears that GOP tribalism coupled with a statewide GOP voter registration edge of over a 100,000 registrants is still all it takes to win statewide races in Arizona.

Well, that and massive amounts of “dark money” from out of state anonymous sources.

Republicans appear to have won all the statewide offices, but the Superintendent of Public Instruction race remains too close to call.

Democrats appear to have picked up some seats in the Arizona House. Several races remain too close to call, and there are reportedly over 500,000 ballots yet to be be verified and counted.

Democrats may have narrowed the GOP margin in the legislature, which could force the GOP leadership to negotiate and compromise with the Democratic leadership to pass legislation, instead of simply ignoring Democrats and the constituents they represent. This is a good thing.

Current estimated voter turnout is 46.67%. When more than half of registered voters cannot take the time to fill out a ballot — not including the large number of eligible voting age persons not registered to vote — the health of our democracy is in serious jeopardy. You have to do better Arizona!

(These are the overnight numbers).

Governor

Doug Ducey (R)               57.8%
David Garcia (D)             40.2%

Secretary of State

Steve Gaynor (R)             51.3%
Katie Hobbs (D)              48.7%

Attorney General

Mark Brnovich (R)          53.4%
January Contreras (D)   46.6%

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Democrats arrive late, but ‘blue wave’ momentum is building

Anyone who has ever been active in Democratic Party politics knows that Democrats always arrive late and no event ever starts on time.

After a slow start in early mail-in ballot returns in the first couple of weeks of early voting, for which I chastised you, Democrats finally started showing up late in the final week of early voting. Keep it up through Election Day.

Arizona Democrats have seen a massive surge in early voting over the past week, bolstering predictions for a “blue wave” in Tuesday’s elections. ‘The blue wave is real’: Arizona Democrats see major surge in early voting turnout:

Early ballot returns released Friday [Secretary of State Early Ballot Statistics] show Democrats are on track to narrow the voter-participation gap with Republicans to its lowest level in any midterm election in recent history.

That surge in Democratic participation could help the party flip close races or win contests for the U.S. Senate, secretary of state and superintendent of public instruction.

Democrats had significantly lagged Republicans when early ballot returns started coming in three weeks ago, leading some to speculate that the blue wave had crested.

Screen Shot 2018-11-03 at 7.20.33 AM

But that changed over the past week as Democrats shaved the GOP’s early-vote advantage to less than 8 percentage points. Republicans typically have a 12 percentage-point turnout edge in midterm elections.

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The Arizona Republic inexplicably endorses Mark Brnovich for Attorney General

Some of the nastiest campaign ads running on television have been those airing against Democratic candidate January Contreras for Attorney General. Arizona’s attorney general race has drawn national attention. Here’s why:

January Contreras

Spending on attorney-general races nationally could top $100 million this year, according to the Washington Post, with the Republican Attorney General Association investing heavily in defending its incumbents.

“The Democratic Attorney General Association is involved, too, but DAGA just does not have as much money,” said Bernie Nash, co-chair of Cozen O’Connor’s State Attorneys General practice.

The firm analyzes attorney-general races and has rated Arizona’s contest as “Leans Republican.”

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Arizona Attorney General Mark Brnovich has taken heat for involving Arizona in divisive national fights, such as the 20-state effort to repeal part of the Affordable Care Act. Here is the Complaint (.pdf). January Contreras argues that what Brnovich calls an issue of constitutionality is a dangerous move that would hurt vulnerable Arizonans with pre-existing health conditions.

Keep in mind that the Attorney General cannot join this lawsuit without the tacit approval of the Governor. So both Governor Doug Ducey and Attorney General Mark Brnovich have signed off on the Texas lawsuit that seeks to hold the Affordable Care Act unconstitutional, which would invalidate all of its patient  protections including those prohibiting discrimination against persons with preexisting conditions. Polling suggests that this is the top political issue for voters in this election. They are both on the wrong side of this issue.

January Contreras “said that ‘on Day One,’ she would remove Arizona from that lawsuit and join a concurrent one [by Democratic Attorneys General] that aims to keep protections for people with pre-existing conditions in place.”

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Preliminary Primary Results: State Offices

 Votes are still being counted, but the primary election is mostly over. Some races are still as yet too close to call.

According to the Secretary of State, voter turnout was a shamefully pathetic 25.82%. You are an embarrassment to democracy, Arizona. You have to start doing better.

Incumbent Secretary of State Michelle Reagan, incumbent Corporation Commissioner Tom Forese, and apparently incumbent Superintendent of Public Instruction Dianne Douglas, three highly controversial figures, have been defeated in their GOP primary.

Citizens Clean Elections candidate (CCE).

Arizona Legislature

District 1

Jo Craycraft (D) Senate (CCE)
Karen Fann (R) Senate

Ed Gogek (D) House (CCE)
Jan Manolis (D) House (CCE)
Noel Campbell (R) House
David Stringer (R) House

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