Weather

Balance is the key

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Cross-posted from RestoreReason.com.

I just listened to “The Coming Storm”, by Michael Lewis. I didn’t carefully read the description before diving in, and thought it would inform me about the increasing violence of weather. Rather, I learned about the privatization of weather, or at least the reporting of it, and the Department of Commerce.

Turns out, the Department of Commerce has little to do with commerce and is actually forbidden by law from engaging in business. Rather, it runs the U.S. Census, the Patent and Trademark Office, and the National Institute of Standards and Technology. Over half of its $9B budget though, is spent by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) to figure out the weather. And figuring out the weather, is largely about collecting data. “Each and every day, NOAA collects twice as much data as is contained in the entire book collection of the Library of Congress.” One senior policy adviser from the George W. Bush administration, said the Department of Commerce should really be called the Department of Science and Technology. When he mentioned this to Wilbur Ross, Trump’s appointee to lead the Department, Ross said, “Yeah, I don’t think I want to be focusing on that.” Unfortunately for all of us, Ross also wasn’t interested in finding someone who would do it for him.

In October 2017, Barry Myers, a lawyer who founded and ran AccuWeather, was nominated to serve as the head of the NOAA. This is a guy who in the 1990s, argued the NWS should be forbidden (except in cases where human life and property was at stake) from delivering any weather-related knowledge to Americans who might be a consumer of AccuWeather products. “The National Weather Service” Myers said, “does not need to have the final say on warnings…the government should get out of the forecasting business.”

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U.S. loses jobs for the first time in 7 years in September

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Steve Benen has the monthly jobs report for September. U.S. lost jobs last month for the first time in 7 years:

The job numbers were worse than anyone expected. While projections showed the U.S. economy adding about 80,000 jobs in September, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported this morning that the economy actually lost 33,000 jobs in September.

September jobs

It’s important to emphasize that these totals were heavily affected by Hurricanes Harvey and Irma, which depressed hiring. See, How Hurricanes Skewed September’s Job Numbers. [It’s also important to note that these numbers will be revised in future jobs reports, so the consecutive monthly gains streak could very well still be alive.] That said, the new job numbers still fell short of low expectations. What’s more, the combined job totals from July and August were revised down, and that can’t be attributed to hurricanes.

This is the first time the U.S. economy has lost jobs since September 2010 – seven years ago. It interrupts the longest streak on record of consecutive months in which the economy added jobs [This could change next month after revisions].

Here’s another chart, this one showing monthly job losses/gains in just the private sector since the start of the Great Recession.

September Private

Economist Jared Bernstein explains, Thanks to Harvey and Irma, payrolls fell last month, but underlying job market remains strong:

Payrolls contracted by 33,000 last month due to the impacts of hurricanes Harvey and Irma. The unemployment rate, which BLS tells us was not affected by the storms, fell to 4.2 percent, its lowest rate in over 16 years, and it fell for “good reasons” last month, i.e., not because discouraged workers left the labor force. In fact, the closely watched labor force participation rate rose to 63.1 percent, its highest level since March of 2014.

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Global warming is slowing down the circulation of the oceans

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Chris Mooney of the Washington Post reports the latest news on the climate crisis. Global warming is now slowing down the circulation of the oceans — with potentially dire consequences:

Last week, we learned about the possible destabilization of the Totten Glacier of East Antarctica, which could unleash over 11 feet of sea level rise in coming centuries.

gulf_streamAnd now this week brings news of another potential mega-scale perturbation. According to a new study just out in Nature Climate Change by Stefan Rahmstorf of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and a group of co-authors, we’re now seeing a slowdown of the great ocean circulation that, among other planetary roles, helps to partly drive the Gulf Stream off the U.S. east coast. The consequences could be dire – including significant extra sea level rise for coastal cities like New York and Boston.

A vast, powerful, and warm current, the Gulf Stream transports more water than “all the world’s rivers combined,” according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. But it’s just one part of a larger regional ocean conveyor system – scientists technically call it the “Atlantic meridional overturning circulation” — which, in turn, is just one part of the larger global “thermohaline” circulation (“thermohaline” conjoins terms meaning “temperature” and “salty”).

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Hurricane Odile could bring ‘catastrophic’ flooding to Arizona

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Remember this record rainfall in Phoenix from hurricane Norbert just last week?

PhoenixFlood

Weather forecasters predict hurricane Odile Poised to Bring Catastrophic Flooding to Southwest US:

Odile will unload tremendous rainfall over a large part of the Southwest United States that will run off the mountains and into the desert valleys and plains through the end of the week.

According to Western Weather Expert Ken Clark, “There is the potential for devastating, catastrophic and historic flooding in this scenario.”

The heaviest rainfall will hit the Southwestern states of Arizona and New Mexico where a general 3 to 6 inches will fall, but local amounts of 10 inches are possible on the slopes of the mountains. Rainfall of 1 to 2 inches per hour can occur.

Odile

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Hurricane Odile is coming to the Southwest

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Remember this record rainfall in Phoenix from hurricane Norbert just last week?

PhoenixFlood

I hope Phoenix has fixed its freeway pump stations, because it looks like you get to do it all again this week. Hurricane Odile has turned eastward and is heading up the Baja peninsula. Make your preparations now. Hurricane Odile Brings Life-Threatening Impacts to Baja:

Baja California Sur is in a dangerous situation as Odile will continue to bring life-threatening impacts, such as significant flooding and hurricane-force winds, through Tuesday.

Odile made landfall near Cabo San Lucas at 9:45 p.m. PDT on Sunday as a Category 3 hurricane. Odile had estimated winds of 200 kph (127 mph) at landfall. This ties a record for the strongest hurricane to make landfall in Baja California Sur during the satellite era, with Hurricane Olivia in 1967.

UhpO_2_640x480

Southern portions of Baja California will continue to experience hurricane-force winds and torrential rainfall on Monday as Odile tracks northward.

Storm surge will become less of a concern moving forward as Odile weakens and tracks north over Baja California through midweek.

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