Talking Baseball

Posted by AzBlueMeanie:

Back in the good old days, one popular belief for forecasting teams that would finish in first place centered on Memorial Day. The teams in first place on the morning of Memorial Day, the belief held, would end the season in first place.

Murray Chass writes Memorial Day Madness:

Perhaps at one time the Memorial Day guideline made sense, especially in the days of two leagues and no divisions. But narrowing the statistical sample to the current era of six divisions [and wild card teams], the Memorial Day barometer barely prevails.

According to Elias Sports Bureau, since 1995, the forecast formula has worked only 58 percent of the time, where 56 of 97 teams in sole possession of first place on Memorial Day morning have ended the season as division winners.

Last season only half of the Memorial Day division leaders were division leaders at the end. Texas, Philadelphia and Arizona made it; Boston, Cleveland and St. Louis did not.

The Cardinals nevertheless crept into the post-season as the National League wild card and won the World Series.

The most surprising and unlikely team in first place this Memorial Day is the Washington Nationals (aka the "Nats").

The original Washington Nationals (aka the "Senators") played in the American League from 1905-1960, and their motto was "Washington first in war, first in peace, last in the American League." For many years that was true. The Washington Nationals won only one World Series behind "The Big Train" Walter Johnson in the latter part of his career, defeating the New York Giants in 1924. The Nationals had a chance to repeat as world champions in 1925, but they became the first team to blow a 3-1 World Series lead to lose to the Pittsburgh Pirates. The Nationals best season was in 1933, making the World Series for the last time, but losing to the New York Giants.

In 1960, the renamed Washington Senators moved to Minnesota to become my Minnesota Twins, who this year on Memorial Day are competing with the Chicago Cubs for the worst record in baseball. Oy!

The current Washington Nationals team is the old Montreal Expos so maybe the old motto does not apply. Although the Expos only made the post season once in the split season strike year of 1981. The Expos had the best record in baseball in 1994 when, again, a strike ended the baseball season in August. Lucky for the "Nats" there is no player strike this year.

The other surprising and unlikely team this year is the Batimore Orioles, who have not had a winning season since 1997. The Orioles have not been in the World Series since 1983 when Cal Ripkin led them to a world championship over the Philadelphia Phillies.

I am not sure that there has ever been a time that the Maryland -D.C. area has had both the Washington Nationals and Baltimore Orioles in first place at the same time. This may be an historic first.

So who is in first place this Memorial Day?

National League

East – Washington Nationals (1), New York Mets (2), Miami Marlins (3)

Central – Cincinnati Reds (1), St. Louis Cardinals (2), Pittsburgh Pirates (3)

West – Los Angeles Dodgers (1), San Francisco Giants (2), Arizona Diamondbacks (3)

American League

East – Baltimore Orioles (T-1), Tampa Bay Rays (T-1), New York Yankees (3)

Central – Cleveland Indians (1), Chicago White Sox (2), Detroit Tigers (3)

West – Texas Rangers (1), Los Angeles (Anaheim) Angels (2), Oakland Athletics (3)

If recent history holds true, there will be at least one wild card team playing in the World Series in October. Which means that finishing first no longer means what it used to mean.