Donald Trump rolled over his GOP competitors in the Nevada Caucus on Tuesday for his third consecutive win.
This sets up “Super Tuesday” aka the “SEC Primary” on Tuesday, March 1.
According to the RealClearPolitics averaging of state polls, Donald Trump currently leads in Alabama, Georgia, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Virginia, and Vermont. Ted “Calgary” Cruz has a narrow lead in his home state of Texas, and in Arkansas. The caucuses in Alaska, Colorado. and North Dakota do not have any recent polling.
“Calgary” Cruz, who has been fading since his “disputed” (by Donald Trump) win in the Iowa Caucus faces his Alamo by needing to win his home state of Texas big on Tuesday. The Washington Post’s wingnut blogger Jennifer Rubin (who is no fan of “Calgary” Cruz) speculates, Could Cruz suffer the unkindest cut of all — losing Texas?
In the latest poll, Cruz is a mere 8 points ahead of Donald Trump — in his own state of Texas. And that poll was taken Feb. 12-19, before Cruz’s collapse in South Carolina. Is it conceivable that Cruz could not only fail to win the rest of the so-called SEC primary states, but also lose Texas?
I was stunned in talking to longtime Texas political watchers and insiders, not aligned with any candidate, that they were not in the least dismissive of the notion Cruz could lose there. Essentially, they told me it is quite possible that the tea party darling will be rejected by his own constituents. There is certainly a substantial risk that will occur. Moreover, Cruz’s campaign has said he has to not only win, but also win big there.
If Trump can beat “Calgary” Cruz on his home turf, or even embarrass him with a narrow loss that leaves them with essentially an equal number of delegates awarded, it will be lights out for the Cruz campaign.
Rubio Roboto faces his own moment of truth in the Florida primary on March 15. According to the RealClearPolitics averaging of state polls, Donald Trump has a 21 point lead over media darling Rubio Roboto in his home state of Florida. If Rubio loses his home state by that kind of margin, it will be lights out for the Rubio campaign.
That only leaves former FAUX News host and Governor of Ohio, John Kasich. The Ohio Primary is also on March 15. According to the most recent Quinnipiac Poll, Donald Trump holds a 5 point lead over Ohio’s governor.
The GOP contest could essentially be over after March 15. Trump would hold a commanding delegate lead that his competitors cannot hope to overcome. It is just a matter of running out the clock in the remaining contests and racking up enough delegates to win on the first ballot.
This is not your father’s GOP. The carcass of the Republican Party has been hollowed-out by the parasitic radical extremist fringe elements of the far-right. These are the “double high authoritarians” that John Dean warned you about in his 2007 book, Conservatives Without Conscience.
A new set of public opinion survey results asking atypical questions has shed some light on the Trump coalition. The results suggest how Donald Trump has upended the contemporary divide in the party and built a significant part of his coalition of voters on people who are responsive to religious, social and racial intolerance. Measuring Donald Trump’s Supporters for Intolerance. And then there is this, Donald Trump loves the ‘poorly educated’ — and they love him.
All of this has the GOP establishment beside itself. The Washington Post editorializes, Republican leaders’ silence on Trump is inexcusable — and irrational:
On Sunday, ABC’s George Stephanopoulos asked Republican National Committee Chairman Reince Priebus whether the party would back Donald Trump should he win the GOP nomination. “Yes, we will support the nominee,” the Republican chairman replied. “To me, it’s a no-brainer.” Mr. Stephanopoulos asked if a Trump nomination would split the party. “Winning is the antidote to a lot of things,” Mr. Priebus responded.
Winning can quiet many complaints, it is true. But it cannot and will not be an antidote to the moral poison of Mr. Trump’s campaign. Party leaders who support and celebrate his victory will be accomplices to an attack on the fundamental values of American democracy. Winning will not wash away the stain.
Mr. Trump’s campaign is based on suspicion and unreason. He revels in policy proposals that make no sense. He stirs bigotry against Muslims, Hispanics, Jews, people with disabilities and more. He demeans war heroes. His latest turn is indirectly questioning Sen. Marco Rubio’s (R-Fla.) eligibility to be president, a suspicion rooted in pure prejudice.
Mr. Trump appears to have turned illogic into a virtue for his supporters, asking his audiences, “Who’s going to pay for the wall?” The reply is as enthusiastic as it is bizarre: “Mexico!” How might that happen? The answer, or rather the absence of one, is irrelevant to the candidate. How will he respond when, having reached the Oval Office, his simplistic promises proved unachievable, he encounters opposition in the form of legitimate checks and balances from the courts and Congress? Which ethnic group will he pick on to explain away his failures to deliver? What actions would he take to distract people from his lack of substance?
Like many GOP leaders, Mr. Priebus has shown that he knows that Mr. Trump is a problem. He condemned Mr. Trump’s plan to ban Muslims from entering the United States. But, also like many top Republicans, the party chairman has nevertheless given Mr. Trump a wide berth to run a flamboyant insult of a campaign.
There are several pretexts Republican officials might offer to avoid giving Mr. Trump the public thrashing he deserves: condemnations from “establishment” politicians might only make him stronger; the results of the GOP nominating process deserve some respect, and Republicans must abide by the rules; maybe Mr. Trump would beat the Democrats in November.
None of these excuse silence. Particularly not the third. The argument that any Republican would be better than any Democrat is a depressing reflection of irrational partisanship. Mr. Priebus and everyone else “leading” the GOP are Americans before they are Republicans. They should act like it.
Will the GOP-friendly media in Arizona also condemn Donald Trump as strongly as the Post above in the days leading up to the Arizona Presidential Preference Election on March 22? Or will they, like Arizona’s Tea-Publican office holders, pledge to support whomever the GOP nominee is, even if it is the fascist Donald Trump, out of political tribalism?