The GOP still in search of the perfect ‘Not-the-Romney’ candidate

Posted by AzBlueMeanie:

The corporate media villagers and Beltway bloviators will all say tonight that, should Willard "Mittens" Romney win in New Hampshire as expected, it will be an historical first for a GOP candidate to win both the Iowa Caucus and the New Hampshire primary ("historical" is a relative term: it's only since 1976).

First of all, only the media villagers have declared Romney the "unofficial winner" in Iowa. The "official results" have yet to be posted, and there is a legitimate question as to whether A typo may have led to 'Mittens' Romney's win in Iowa. Not that this matters a wit to the media narrative of the corporate media villagers. "We decide who wins."

Even if Romney is the winner in Iowa, a win in New Hampshire means little. He is the only GOP candidate from neighboring Massachusetts to run in the New Hampshire primary. When he lost to John McCain four years ago, that was news. Romney is expected to win, just as Massachusetts Democrats Sen. Paul Tsongas and Governor Michael Dukakis did. This is known as the "Massachusetts discount" in New Hampshire — yeah you won, but you're our neighbor who lives next door. BFD.

The media villagers will make much ado about nothing tonight. The corporate media villagers are trying to close the deal for Willard "Mittens" Romney who has been unable to close the deal himself by bestowing on him an aura of inevitability. Once again, the media villagers will say "We decide who wins."

But that is not how Tea-Publican voters see it. They are still in search of the perfect "Not-the-Romney" candidate according to the recent CBS News poll. Poll: 58% of Republicans want more presidential choices – Political Hotsheet:

The survey finds that 58 percent of Republican primary voters want more presidential choices, while just 37 percent say they are satisfied with the current field. The percentage of Republican primary voters that wants more choices has increased 12 percentage points since October.

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In this national survey, taken after Romney's narrow victory in the Iowa caucuses, the former Massachusetts governor leads the field – though he holds just 19 percent support. Only 28 percent of GOP primary voters say they've made up their mind, and just 20 percent who've made a choice strongly favor their candidate. 

It's mathematically possible for another candidate to enter the race as late as early February and still win enough delegates to take the nomination, though some deadlines for candidates to get on state ballots have already passed[.]

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There is no candidate in the GOP field who more than one third of Republican primary voters say they would enthusiastically support if he were the nominee. Rick Santorum does best in terms of enthusiasm, with 33 percent saying they would enthusiastically support him. (Roughly one in two say their support for Santorum would either come with reservations or simply result from the fact that he is the GOP nominee.) Santorum is followed by Newt Gingrich, whom 29 percent would enthusiastically support, and Romney, whom 27 percent would enthusiastically support. They're followed by Rick Perry at 17 percent, Ron Paul at 15 percent and Jon Huntsman at 12 percent.

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Santorum is the most popular candidate among white evangelicals, who make up 39 percent of Republican primary voters nationwide. He is also most popular among Republicans who call themselves very conservative, 26 percent of whom support him. 

Romney dominates among self described moderate Republican primary voters, who make up one third of the GOP electorate. Twenty-five percent back him, compared to just 8 percent for Gingrich and 5 percent for Santorum. Romney also holds a double-digit lead among GOP primary voters unaffiliated with the Tea Party movement, while Gingrich and Santorum split support among the roughly half of GOP primary voters who align themselves with the Tea Party.

Given the lateness of the date, someone jumping into the race now is a non-starter. Conservatives who want to stop Romney have to settle on one of the "Not-the-Romney" candidates and the others need to be forced out. There is still only a slight chance that this would divide the delegate totals enough to deprive either candidate of enough delegates and lead to a brokered convention — at which time a dark horse candidate could be drafted by the delegates at the convention and this primary season will have been all for naught.

The far more likely scenario is that the dissatisfied Tea Party will break with the GOP establishment for selecting Romney and run one of their own as an independent candidate. The Tea Party keeps saying they are all about principles and not party loyalty, so it's time to put up or shut up.