The so-called “Rising American Electorate” (unmarried women, young voters, minorities) are key constituencies to Democratic electoral success in presidential election years.
But for some unexplored reasons these voters behave as if they only need to vote every four years, and fail to appear during mid-term elections. As Samuel L. Jackson said in his now famous video ad from 2012, “WAKE THE FUCK UP!”
Stan Greenberg of Democracy Corps for Women’s Voices Women Vote has a new poll out today that illustrated the mid-term dropoff from 2012 in turnout among key voter groups. Greg Sargent breaks it down in today’s Morning Plum:
The poll — which was done by Stan Greenberg of Democracy Corps for Women’s Voices Women Vote — finds that voters nationwide in the Rising American Electorate (unmarried women, young voters, minorities) are significantly less likely to vote in 2014 than other voters (non-RAE voters) are.
This is the core of the Dem dilemma: RAE voters are increasingly key to the victorious Dem coalition in national elections, thanks to the diversifying electorate. But they are among the least likely to turn out in midterms, unlike more GOP-aligned non-RAE voters, such as middle-aged and older white males and married women.
But the poll also suggests Dems may be able to offset this problem with a focus on concrete economic policies for working and middle class Americans — particularly women — such as equal pay and a minimum wage hike.
The poll finds:
– 64 percent of RAE voters who voted in 2012 say they are “almost certain” to vote in 2014. Meanwhile, 79 percent of non-RAE voters from 2012 say they are almost certain to vote this year, a 15 point edge. (See slide seven.)
– Among RAE voters who say they are “likely” to vote in 2014, Dems hold a 25 point edge in the generic ballot matchup, 57-32. But that is down 10 points from the edge Dems held among these voters in 2012, when it was 35 points, 67-32. (See slide five.) That’s a substantial drop-off among voters Dems will absolutely need to offset their disadvantages on a map concentrated in states carried by Mitt Romney.
– Among those voters who will drop off from 2012 and not vote in 2014, Dems hold a big edge of 16 points, 49-33. In other words, the voters who are more likely to stay home are overwhelmingly Democratic voters. (See slide eight.)
The good news for Dems: Their issues are overwhelmingly popular with unmarried women (who are emerging as a key RAE constituency in these Senate races, because they tend to drop off faster than married women), particularly when economic proposals are packaged together into a broader agenda:
– 94 percent of unmarried women favor a combination of pay equity and protections ensuring insurance companies no longer charge women more than men, as Obamacare does, with 82 percent favoring it strongly. (See slide 13.)
– 75 percent of unmarried women favor a combination of pay equity and increasing the minimum wage, with 55 percent favoring it strongly.
“The turnout and support of unmarried women and the rest of the Rising American Electorate will determine the 2014 elections,” Page Gardner, president of Women’s Voices Women Vote, tells me. “This survey is a roadmap showing candidates how to succeed, by speaking about equal pay and an economic agenda that benefits women and their families. Our poll make clear that raising the minimum wage, ensuring equal pay for women and guaranteeing paid sick leave for working women are popular policies that will win elections.”
All elections are base voter elections. The party that wins an election is the party that turns out its base voters. There are more Democrats and Democratic “leaners” nationally than there are Republicans and Republican “leaners.” Republicans only win when Democrats stay home and do not turn out to vote. Period.
Yes, the GOP works hard to suppress Democratic voter turnout, but their voter suppression efforts can be overwhelmed by voter turnout, as it was in 2008 and 2012. You really have no one to blame but yourselves and your lame-ass excuses for not voting in mid-term elections. No more excuses!
If you want to end the dysfunctional less-than-do-nothing Congress, the worst Congress in American history; if you want to end the far-right radical extremist control of the Arizona legislature — then Democrats have to get off their asses and organize, mobilize and VOTE! The future is in your hands.
Cited at: ‘People for the American Way’ and many others. . )
“Fischer blamed a deadly attack by a grizzly bear in Yellowstone Park on the fact that American “culture has jettisoned a biblical view” of animals, and called it a sign that God is punishing America: “God said a curse would fall on a land which turned its back on him, and one consequence would be more tragic deaths at the hands of predatory animals. The truly sad thing here is that we are bringing this curse upon ourselves.”
He later called for an open season on grizzlies in order to end the divine curse: “If it’s a choice between grizzlies and humans, the grizzlies have to go. And it’s time…God makes it clear in Scripture that deaths of people and livestock at the hands of savage beasts is a sign that the land is under a curse. The tragic thing here is that we are bringing this curse upon ourselves.”
After the gray wolf was taken off the endangered species list, Fischer ecstatically tweeted that it was time to finish off the species: “Great news for all who want to reverse the biblical curse of predators: can now hunt wolves in Idaho!”
For the last 40 years, Democrats have continued to act as if Safire and Agnew were right and there is a ‘Silent Majority’ out there that hates Progressive ideas and will crucify any Democrat who does not hide his ideas behind a protective wall of pink fuzz. Meanwhile, they also assume they don’t have to appeal to a constituency that has ‘noplace else to go.’
When they DO run hard and Progressive, they run against A Republican — the Republicans run against the Democratic party. And they are far, far, far too gentlemanly or ladylike to call a bigot a bigot or a liar a liar.
Meanwhile, Republicans are walking around with “Kick Me” signs on them and we ignore them. Now I am not saying we should go ‘hard Left all the way,’ that would be disastrous.
But we don’t HAVE to. Merely running a few strategic candidates, a few strategic campaigns, and we will create the sort of news stories that will make our issues central to the campaign across the board — the way Republicans do, but we don’t have to lie about them.
Let’s run a couple of openly gay candidates in conservative district against homophobes. Let’s run a few ethnic candidates against those candidates who make their career on bigotry. Lets *shudder* dare to run a woman who admits she has had an abortion against a prime pregnancy forcer (ideally a female one, like Virginia Foxx).
We’ll lose — elections we would have lost anyway, elections we seem more likely to concede by default, without running anyone. But we’ll send a message to OUR base that we will fight for them where it counts. We’ll encourage blue dots in red states, convince progressives they are not alone in their district, and give us pivots to work toward the future. And we will get us extra votes that will affect races up and down the ballot.
And let’s start a campaign that will punish Republicans for appearing on a show like Brian Fisher’s. We have to put up with the Limbaughs and Hannitys, and should, but Fisher is over the edge, and every prominent Republican appears with him, despite his homophobia, Muslimophobia, misogyny, birtherism, Commie-calling, and even anti-bear statements (really! Wish I had the cite handy.) We should make a Republican ashamed to vote for someone who appears on a show where there is such a record of viciousness.
We blew 2010. It wasn’t the Republicans, it wasn’t Obamacare, it was simply running bad candidates and not fighting where we could, and defending rather than attacking things that deserved to be attacked.
We can actually pick up seats this year, if we stop thinking our assets are liabilities. (And maybe if we get a couple of candidates for 2016 that are not the poster child for ‘triangulation.’)