The new US. Census reapportionment data tells us that Arizona will not gain in Congressional representation for another ten years until the next Census in 2030. Ten years! It happened because Governor Ducey pursued a campaign of intimidation against marginalized communities in Arizona to prevent the chance that an additional Congressional seat might turn Blue.
We’ve all seen the growth in AZ’s population – from snowbirds moving here permanently, from Californians fleeing the state’s economy, taxes, and wildfires, and from new housing developments in the West and East Valleys. By the numbers, Arizona added more than 767,000 residents, and its population grew by 12 percent to more than 7,158,000 since 2010.
Why is the loss of a much-anticipated Congressional seat significant? It goes beyond the political calculations of potential candidates jockeying for a Congressional seat in Maricopa County, the fastest growing and largest battleground county in the US.
Arizona lost $62 million per 1% of undercount
According to David Lujan, President of the Children’s Action Alliance, for every one percent of “undercount” in the actual population – individuals not answering or completing the Census forms – “our state stands to lose $62 million per year.” In 2010, that undercount was estimated by the US Census to be 22 percent in Arizona. If the undercount in 2020 turns out to be 10 percent again, that would be a loss of $620 million each year in revenue for the state. For the next ten years!
This loss of revenue will reduce Arizona’s federal grants in 55 programs including:
- Infrastructure
- Emergency management
- Veteran’s care
- Child health programs
Federal funds are currently 40 percent of the state’s budget. The Republicans’ conservative agenda is to overlook the needs of our most vulnerable citizens while giving tax breaks to millionaires and reduce Prop 208 voter-approved public education funds. Thus we know those lost federal funds won’t be made up by our current Republican Legislature or Governor.
So, how did Ducey’s and Trump’s political calculations factor into Arizona losing billions in additional revenue for the state? Before the census-taking took place, Trump and the Republicans calculated that if they “undercounted” the poor, Hispanic, Black and Indigenous populations, it would decrease the number of Congressional districts in AZ that could potentially turn Blue in 2022, thus reducing Democrat majorities in the US House of Representatives.
To that end, and with the support of Ducey, Trump’s administration sought an “are you a citizen question” to be included in the Census questionnaire – for the first time. It was a cynical effort to further intimidate Latinos and others from answering that question and filling out their census documents. It was SB 1070’s “show me your papers” all over again.
The damaging undercount campaign
Fortunately, the US Supreme Court ruled the “citizen question” illegal. But the damage was done in holding up the actual start of the census counting by Republicans in Congress underfunding the Census from prior decades, and in publicity designed to intimidate large segments of our population. Along with the difficulty of conducting the Census in a pandemic, state-by-state comparisons show that Arizona’s response rate was near the bottom.
Despite a vast surplus in the state’s rainy day fund, Ducey spent only $1.9 million in state funds and left it to the localities to encourage participation in the Census. In contrast, California spent $180 million in a statewide campaign to urge census participation. While they ended up losing a seat, their calculation was, “we’ll spend a little to gain a lot.”
Ducey’s calculation? To gain billions of dollars in federal funding over the next decade by adding a Congressional district, he could have spent a proportional amount of the state’s surplus in Arizona’s self-interest to promote full participation in the US Census. Instead, he pursued the intimidation and suppression of marginalized communities in Arizona to prevent their attaining equal representation in Congress. All on the chance that an additional Congressional seat might turn Blue.
Governor Doug Ducey served as his party leader for Trump. He served his party by supporting failed Republican attempts to regain control of the US House of Representatives. He served his own political ambition for higher visibility in the MAGA universe for a likely run for President.
What he did not serve were the citizens of Arizona, all the citizens. Shameful!
Discover more from Blog for Arizona
Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.
I lived in Colorado at the time of the redistricting following the 2000 census. I was Chair of the Jefferson County Democratic Party and a Professor of Statistics so managed to be heavily involved in the State Party’s role in the redistricting. Perhaps the biggest single thing we did that put us in a good position was to pay the price and have a forecasting capability. We were able to see what was going to happen in any proposed district in the years to follow. We could have a few districts that weren’t majority Dem. in 2010 but would be turning our way. That enabled the Party to recruit candidates for future runs with some assurance that they would have a good chance. At the time I thought it would take several years for the plan to pay off but it happened earlier than I thought it would. It would be wise for the Arizona Democratic Party to include a forecasting capability in whatever software package they use to evaluate proposals.
Even right wingers should understand what this means.
Thanks to Ducey, the Federal government will be sending Arizonan’s tax money to other states instead of back to Arizona
Arizonan’s money may even go to the Biden’s Communist Comrades in the People’s Republic of Californicommunism.
Can the courts block the seat loss?
Very well explained. Article Should be picked up nationally.
Lynn: thanks for the positive feedback and response. Not sure about the legal question. But if it can be, someone is probably exploring all options.
I certainly agree with the basic premise here but we do need to be more carful with the arithmetic. For the sake of making a point let’s suppose Arizona is 50% white and 10% black. The 4% undercount of whites is 2% of the population. The 10% undercount of blacks is 1% of the population. Undercounting at the rates presented above has a big impact on the state because of undercounting whites.