Part of the claimed justification for Trump’s war of choice in Iran is that he’s determined to prevent Iran from ever having a nuclear weapon. He says it all the time, and when he’s sundowning and hasn’t the cognitive bandwidth to say more, it’s the ONLY reason he gives for his illegal, unauthorized, war-criminogenic, and strategically disastrous war on Iran.
Left unexamined, and without informed context, his claim even seems plausible. Most Americans view Iran’s regime as obdurately hostile to US interests, and thus don’t examine the justification very skeptically. Iran = Enemy, Enemy with Nukes = Bad, Iran with Nukes = Badder Bad. But when you do question closely the facts and the Trump Regime’s claims, it is revealed as mere propaganda for a war of choice, and one which may even be counter to the stated purpose of preventing and detering Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon.
As I aim to explore in this post, Trump’s claim is undermined severely by his own policies on Iran, and belied by the simple fact that Iran IS already able build a nuclear weapon (or perhaps several) and may already have a primitive nuke, just from a purely technological evaluation of their known capabilities and IAEA-reported refining results. If that is true, then threatening the regime with destruction might be the best possible way to ensure they build, and even use, such a device on us or our allies.
I believe, and will grant, that Trump truly has a horror of nuclear weapons, and that preventing Iran from having a deployable nuke is a genuine concern to him. However, in the light of the real strategic facts on the ground, Trump is pursuing perhaps the most reckless, feckless, and counter-productive methods by which a President might pursue those goals – which is wholly consistent with Trump’s mental capacity, character, political acumen in the international context, and the three-ring circus which makes up his clown car of advisors and hangers-on.
Let’s look first at Iran’s acknowledged uranium stockpile and technological capability to build a working – if crude – nuclear weapon.
Iran already possesses enough enriched uranium to build a primitive nuclear weapon, and they can theoretically do so even without further enrichment. [1, 2]
According to International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) estimates, Iran’s stockpile includes approximately 440 kilograms (972 pounds) of uranium enriched to 60% purity. While 90% enrichment is the standard for modern, missile-ready warheads, nuclear physicists and weapons experts agree that a crude, heavy, first-generation atomic bomb can function using a 60% enriched core. [1, 2, 3, 4]
So, provided that the technical challenges of creating a weapon (Phase 2, see below) are overcome, Iran ALREADY can build a nuclear weapon, though not one deliverable by missile (the resulting device would need to be airlifted and dropped, like the Hiroshima & Nagasaki bombs, or by ground or sea transport). However, possessing the raw material is likely only the first step. To actually produce a modern, potentially missile-borne, functioning weapon, Iran must overcome both of two distinct technical phases. [1]
Phase 1: Material Readiness (Days to Weeks)
While Iran’s existing 60% stockpile can form a primitive core, or even a few, security analysts generally expect Iran would perform a rapid “breakout” to further purify the material to 90% weapons-grade. Because the physics of uranium enrichment is non-linear, nearly 99% of the work required has already been completed in reaching 60%. [1, 2, 3, 4, 5] Despite the Trump Regime’s claims, Iran’s stockpiles, and the centifuges required (probably thousands), have NOT been destroyed – Trump’s stupid blustering gave plenty of time for them to be moved and safeguarded according to intelligence assessments.
- The Final Step: Upgrading the 440 kg from 60% to 90% purity would take the US Defense Intelligence Agency’s estimate of less than a week using advanced centrifuges. [1, 2]
- The Yield: Once fully enriched to 90%, this specific stockpile would yield enough fissile material for 9 to 12 nuclear weapons. [1, 2]
- Gas to Metal: The uranium is currently stored as a gas (uranium hexafluoride). Iran would need to spend several days chemically converting it into a solid metal and machining it into a bomb core. [1, 2, 3, 4]
Phase 2: Weaponization (Zero to Months)
Manufacturing the core is a separate challenge from making a practical bomb. To detonate the material, Iran must finalize its weaponization engineering. [1, 2]
- The Trigger Mechanism: They must assemble an implosion system using high explosives to perfectly compress the uranium core to initiate a chain reaction. Historical IAEA data indicates Iran mastered much of this technology during its pre-2003 “Amad” weapons program. [1, 2, 3, 4]
- Delivery Limitations: If Iran builds a primitive bomb using their current 60% material, or a hurried 90% design, the resulting device will be massive and heavy. It would be far too large to fit on top of Iran’s ballistic missiles. Instead, it would have to be delivered via a heavy transport plane, a ship, or a truck. [1, 2, 3, 5]
Western intelligence and the IAEA maintain that while Iran has actively accumulated the necessary material and built deep underground facilities to protect it, there is no definitive evidence proving the former Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, had issued the final order to execute the technical assembly of a weapon. In fact, Ali Khamenei was known to personally and publicly oppose the final creation of an Iranian nuclear weapon on religious and strategic grounds, and actively leveraged both political and religious arguments to limit Iran’s nuclear program, including issuing a Fatwa against nuclear weapons.
Now that Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei (with his father having been killed in the current war) has been appointed, there is no evidence that he opposes nuclear weapons development, and no evidence that he will be similarly inclined as his father. The new Ayatollah may have already green-lit the very short fuse to Iran actually building either a crude 60% weapon, or the very slightly longer fuse to a more modern 90% weapon. Given the circumstances, it would be entirely rational for him to do so.
The strategic picture has changed so radically with Israel and America both actively bombing Iran that the Iranian regime now is actively seeking strategic leverage points as a result of the current war (including the Straight of Hormuz and, now, through Houthi proxies, the Bab al-Mandab Strait). With the strategic balance so in flux, one can be sure that the Iranian regime is at least considering carefully whether and how to create a nuclear deterrent. In short, Trump may have blundered into forcing the Iranian Regime’s hand toward grabbing a nuke to counter and deter our, and Israel’s, further aggression.
Of course, if Trump had not had a racist snit and torn up Obama’s multi-lateral agreement with Iran that has IAEA inspectors crawling over Iranian facilities for years, we wouldn’t be in this position at all – and he wouldn’t have had a pretext for his jolly little war party with Bibi.
What does all this mean for the security of Americans and our allies, and global security? Nothing positive. Trump may spout nostrums about preventing an Iranian nuke, but Iran already has EVERTHING it needs for a nuclear breakout, and now every incentive to create a nuclear weapon as a strategic deterrent, and Trump has done ALL OF THE HARD WORK to make it so.
So, if Iran were to make a nuclear weapon, how would the world learn about it? It might be a claim in the press by the regime, but why invite speculation that they are lying? Most of those who have joined the nuclear club have made the news public with a test detonation. But if you can test a device, you can also do a test deployment of that weapon instead. The announcement might well be a deniable unconventional strike in a port, or even inside an allied – and hated – enemy’s territory that doesn’t have its own nuclear weapons: Riyadh, perhaps? Ukraine proved pretty convincingly that a major weapons system can be positioned and deployed on the territory of even an active combatant with a little planning and creativity. And who can deny that positioning such a weapon in or near a major American port and detonating it might even be a doomsday scenario for the Iranian regime?
Trump’s war over an ‘Iranian Nuke’ is making the world far less safe, not more safe, in a vast number of ways, but this might be the most consequential.
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