Trump Recession is Coming in June

You know the economy is bad when people are even skimping on McDonald’s value meals. Sales at the fast food chain dropped 3.6 percent in the United States in the first quarter of the year, a stark contrast to a 2.5 percent rise in sales during the same period last year.

Also, some Trump administration officials are hoarding toilet paper and other goods in anticipation of tariffs jacking up prices. Asked why they’re prepping like it’s Armageddon, a Trump aide explained: “Because it would be stupid not to!”

Capping off the grim outlook, Apollo Global Management predicts in a report, backed up with 40 economic charts, that a recession caused by Trump will start late June.

Torsten Slok, chief economist at Apollo, laid out a timeline in a presentation for clients that showed when the impact of Trump tariffs could hit the U.S. economy.

We consumers could start to notice trade-related shortages in our local stores next month, according to the presentation.

The consequence will be empty shelves in US stores in a few weeks and Covid-like shortages for consumers and widespread layoffs, he said.

And the blame lies with Trump.

Tariff to recession timeline:

• April 2: Trump tariffs announced, containership departures from China to U.S. slowing.
• Early-to-mid May: Container ships to U.S. ports come to a stop.
• Mid-to-late May: Trucking demand comes to a halt, leading to empty shelves and lower sales for companies.
• Late May to early June: Layoffs in trucking and retail industries.
• Summer 2025: recession caused by Trump.

To support the idea that the U.S. economy is on the verge of recession, the presentation also included data that shows new orders for business, earnings outlooks and capital spending plans have all fallen sharply in recent weeks.

The Trump administration has paused some of the tariffs, but has hiked duties even higher on China. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent admitted that the current tariff standoff with Beijing is “unsustainable.” Levies on goods from China are now subject to a 145% rate.

China has a large role in the U.S. economy. The U.S. imported $438.9 billion of goods from China in 2024, according to the US Trade Representative, putting it right behind Mexico and above Canada.

J.P.Morgan ratcheted up its odds for a U.S. and global recession to 60%, as analysts scrambled to revise their forecasts.

“Don’t expect empty shelves yet — (year to date) stock is still up, and demand is slowing,” Bernstein analyst Aneesha Sherman said in a note to clients Monday.

Anecdotes from this past week:

Southwest Airlines: “I don’t care if you call it a recession or not, in this industry that’s a recession,” said CEO Robert Jordan.

Chipotle: “Saving money because of concerns around the economy was the overwhelming reason consumers were reducing the frequency of restaurant visits,” saidCEO Scott Boatwright.

PepsiCo: “Relative to where we were three months ago, we
probably aren’t feeling as good about consumer (spending) now,” said Jamie Caulfield, the chief financial officer of PepsiCo.