(Update) Arizona’s lost decade due to GOP magical thinking and fiscal mismanagement of the state


Screenshot-14I previously posted about Arizona’s lost decade due to GOP magical thinking and fiscal mismanagement of the state.

Today there is a new economics report that makes this case, complete with charts! Matthew Hendley at the Phoenix New Times reports, ASU Professors: Arizona Still Two Years Away From Full Economic Recovery:

It’s 2014, and some professors at Arizona State University say the state is still two years away from recovering from the economic crisis.

Professors from ASU’s W.P. Carey School of Business held their 2014 Annual Economic Outlook Luncheon, which included a discussion about Arizona’s slow recovery.


(Check out the W.P. Carey school’s highlights and the presentations from the luncheon on its website.)

For example, nationwide, the number of jobs in the national labor market lost during the recession have essentially all been regained. In Arizona, only 56 percent of the jobs lost have been regained.

According to professor Lee McPheters’ presentation, this is the eighth consecutive “lean” year of “subpar economic growth.”

Generally, the jobs market is trending upward. There have also been concerns that the jobs being added kind of suck, and don’t pay well, but that’s apparently not the case:


Mike Orr, director of the real estate department of the school — and author of the monthly real estate reports — said demand for homes is extraordinarily low right now, which is hurting the real estate market badly, but rising rents might help that.

The key here is that nationally the country has regained the jobs lost during the Bush Great Recession. Arizona, due to GOP magical thinking and fiscal mismanagement of the state, has only regained 56% of the jobs lost and is projected to be at least two years away from a recovery — a lost decade.


  1. Two questions:

    Why do highly intelligent people feel the need to respond to deluded subhuman morons?

    Why is there no Democrat running for State Treasurer of Arizona?

  2. Wow, you guys are really flaming out. Yes, we now know that FDR did cause the great depression. Increasing income tax rates to 93% from 25%, throwing thousands of tenant farmers into unemployment by paying farmers to take land out of production, all while people are starving to death, creating business cartels to regulate and reduce production to increase prices. Yes, we do know that FDR turned a garden variety recession into the great depression. I guess we should be grateful, on the other side of the world, marxists took over the Soviet Union, economic production dropped 80% and 40 million people starved to death.

  3. Well, ill give you points for politeness. But, it takes more than a sneer to win the day. We know that Lucas’s Nobel prize gives validity to the concept of rational expectations. So what were the rational expectations of Obama? Lucas thought Obama was just kidding when he gave all those speeches on single payor health systems and shutting down coal plants and ending the Bush tax cuts. I know, because i talked to him about it.
    But, now we know that he wasnt kidding, he was dead serious and those ideas wiped out 10 trillion dollars of economic activity. When would the stock market rationally have been able first expect the reality we now live in? That date was October of 2008 when he gained the political upper hand. That is precisely the moment the stock market collapsed.

  4. I wouldnt disrespect intrade predictions of political outcomes. The intrade predictions of Obamas electoral votes and percentage vote were more accurate than any poll. Romney should have been using them, his internal polling had him winning because his turnout model underpredicted minority turnout.

    Bottom line: an extremely accurate predictor of future results had Obama moving from 45 percent probability of winning in September 2008 to 70 percent in October and the economy collapsed.

  5. I didnt give Robert Lucas a Nobel prize for his work on rational expectations, but I know its significance for analytic thought. Likely future events have current consequences. This great recession was a predictable outclme of Obamas policies. Once something, Yes, all of AIGs insurance policies on real estate instantly became huge liabilities in an Obama future.

    • Really? Then why was AIG hemorrhaging money in 2007, when Obama wasn’t even favored to win the nomination, let alone the Presidency?

      Why did John Paulson, who predicted and made billions off the crash, support Republicans? So he could get clobbered if they won?

      The creash was years in the making. Read The Big Short, by Michael Lewis, and you can see this easily, while being entertained.

      The Meanie is right — you’re an imbecile.

  6. Seriously? That insane preemptive Depression based upon Intrade election projections conspiracy theory is still floating around in the right-wing blogosphere? You are an imbecile, troll.

  7. Great Bush recession? Really? Economists have a concept called rational expectations. If you are on a train and see it the tracks going over the cliff 4 months down the road, you get off now, not four months from now. The crash of October, 2008 happened as Intrade markets placed the odds of Obama winning at over 70%. Crash. The market instantly knew that a $500,000 home would only be worth $250,000 in an Obama economy growing at 1.5%. No, this is an Obama great recession from end to end.
    We have to reverse all of his policies to get this nation moving again.

    Great research paper on what fairness did to Cuba. They have a maximum wage of …. $20 per month. Very fair, very destructive to the poor. All of their housing is falling apart. No MRI’s. Very fair to everyone except the party elite. They live in the exception zone. Brazil has an exception zone too. Only it is occumpied by people who don’t have the skills needed to earn the minimum wage. Locked out of the economy they spend their days earning a subsistence at the landfill digging through garbage.

    • You’re hilarious. Lehman Brothers went bankrupt because of Obama. AIG lost its ass on derivatives because of Obama. Wall Street sold trillions of dollars worth of junk mortgage-backed securities becuase of Obama.

      But wait. If the economy was reacting to the expectation that Obama would raise growth only to 1.5% (remember, it was negative throughout 2008), why did oil prices rise?

      And why did housing prices start sliding in 2006, causing an implosion in the financial markets? Was the market anticipating Obama back then?

      You’re beyond clueless.

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