By Craig McDermott, cross-posted from Random Musings

Note to BfA readers: This is a “survey” post, not an “analysis” piece.  Also, other BfA writers will cover southern AZ races in greater depth than I did here.


Maricopa County results, courtesy the website of the Maricopa County Recorder, as of 10:20 p.m.(some of these races are close enough that they could flip :

CD9 – D incumbent Kyrsten Sinema ahead of R perennial candidate Wendy Rogers by >11%, 97% reporting.  Sinema’s going to win.  Not a surprise.  Early on, she was seen as vulnerable, but nobody from the Republican “A” team stepped up.


Legislative races:

No big surprises, but one disappointment:  In LD23, Republican John Kavanagh is cruising to winning the Senate seat there over Democrat Paula Pennypacker by more than 25 percentage points.

On the plus side: In LD28, Democratic State Representative Eric Meyer looks to be withstanding a challenge from Republican Shawnna Bolick, wife of Goldwater Institute bigwig Clint Bolick, and the beneficiary of lots of IE money.


County races:

Biggest surprise – In a non-partisan race for a seat on the Maricopa County Community College District (MCCCD) governing board, Republican former legislator Jean McGrath trounced incumbent Randolph Lumm by nearly 40 percentage points.  The highlight of her legislative career: proposing a bill that would have barred opposite sex visitors in the dorms of the state’s universities.  Wonder if anyone has informed her that Maricopa County’s community colleges don’t have dorms?


Ballot questions:

Proposition 480, Maricopa Integrated Health System bond question (funding for rebuilding the county hospital system):  Passing by more than 160K votes.

Proposition 487, City of Phoenix question, gutting public employee pensions: Falling by nearly 26K votes.


State results (and a smattering of races that aren’t statewide, but are outside of Maricopa County), mostly courtesy the website of the Arizona Secretary of State, as of 11:45 p.m. :

CD1: Democratic incumbent Ann Kirkpatrick ahead of Republican challenger Andy Tobin by just over 5K votes, 211 of 327 precincts reporting.  Kirkpatrick will win.

CD2; Democratic incumbent Ron Barber ahead of Republican challenger Martha McSally by 247 votes, 136 of 194 precincts reporting.  Too close to call.

AZGov:  Republican Doug Ducey ahead of Democrat Fred Duval by ~141K votes, 1319 of 1566 precincts reporting.  Ducey will win. 🙁

AZSOS: Republican Michelle Reagan ahead of Democrat Terry Goddard by ~53K votes, 1319 of 1566 precincts reporting.  Likely Reagan win.

AZAG: Republican Mark Brnovich ahead of Democrat Felecia Rotellini by ~75K votes, 1319 of 1566 precincts reporting.  Likely Brnovich win.

AZ Superintendent of Public Instruction: Republican Diane Douglas ahead of Democrat David Garcia by ~26K votes, 1319 of 1566 precincts reporting.  Considering that Douglas basically hid from the public during the campaign, this one will be an embarrassment if it holds up.

LD2 State Representative:  Upset in the making as Republican John Ackerley is ahead of Democratic incumbent Demion Clinco by ~2K votes for the second spot there, 55 of 57 precincts reporting (two are elected; Democrat Rosanna Gabaldon is easily holding on to the other seat).

LD4 State Representative:  Another upset in the making with Republican Richard Hopkins ahead of Democrat Charlene Fernandez by ~600 votes for the second spot there, 56 of 59 precincts reporting (two are elected; Democrat Lisa Otondo is holding on to the other seat).

LD6 State Senate:  In a race that could determine the presidency of the state senate, Independent Tom O’Halleran is ahead of Republican Sylvia Allen by ~450 votes.  Word is that if O’Halleran wins, current Senate president Andy Biggs will be replaced by former Senate president Steve Pierce, and that if Allen wins, the status quo will be maintained.

LD9 State Representative: Too close to call.  250 separate the three candidate for two spots.  Currently incumbent faux moderate Republican Ethan Orr trails Democrats Randy Friese and Victoria Steele, 53 of 57 precincts reporting.

Proposition 122, the neo-secessionist “nullification” measure:  Ahead by ~22K votes, 1319 of 1566 precincts reporting.

Proposition 303, called the “Right to Try Act” (would allow drug companies to sell untested drugs to desperate terminally ill patients):  Ahead by ~600K votes, 1319 of 1566 precincts reporting.

Proposition 304, legislative pay raise:  Falling by a margin of more than 2 to 1.

Pima County Proposition 415, bonds to fund improvements to Pima County’s Animal Care facility: Passing easily.


Nationally, Tuesday sucked for Democrats (mostly).  There will be time for a full recap on Wednesday, but here’s a bit of a preview:

Dear Massachusetts Democrats, never, EVER, again nominate Martha Coakley for anything.