Which pollsters were the most accurate?


Posted by AzBlueMeanie:

Dylan Matthews at Ezra Klein's Wonkblog posts Which pollsters to trust, in one chart:

One thing we’ve learned this election is that averaging polling data
gets you pretty close to an accurate prediction. But particular polls
are often badly off. According
to Fordham’s Costas Panagopoulos, some of the least accurate polls came
from surprising sources. Gallup, Rasmussen and NPR were among the
worst, whereas YouGov, PPP and Ipsos/Reuters all nailed it.

RAND also had a good night. Their poll,
which used an innovative methodology that tracked 3,500 people through
Web surveys, predicted that Obama would get 51.7 percent of the
two-party vote. He got 51.1 percent. Getting it right to within 0.6
percentage points is pretty good.


UPDATE: Nate Silver on which polls did the best (and worst) in 2012.

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The Blue Meanie is an Arizona citizen who wishes, for professional reasons, to remain anonymous when blogging about politics. Armed with a deep knowledge of the law, politics and public policy, as well as pen filled with all the colors stolen from Pepperland, the Blue Meanie’s mission is to pursue and prosecute the hypocrites, liars, and fools of politics and the media – which, in practical terms, is nearly all of them. Don’t even try to unmask him or he’ll seal you in a music-proof bubble and rendition you to Pepperland for a good face-stomping. Read blog posts by the infamous and prolific AZ Blue Meanie here.