Who is winning the ‘money race’ so far in Arizona’s congressional and senate races?

Successful campaigns take lots of money.  The candidate with the most money does not always win (several self-funded millionaires readily come to mind),  but a candidate who cannot raise substantial sums of money cannot win. Period.

So let’s take a look at who is winning the “money race” so far in Arizona’s congressional and senate races, as of  June 30 from the FEC candidate finance portal.

District 1

Democratic incumbent Rep. Tom O’Halleran is comfortably ahead in the money race in his district, with a substantial cash reserve for the general election. Rep. O’Halleran should be able to defend his seat this November.

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District 2

Incumbent Republican Congresswoman Martha McSally is running for the Senate. Former Democratic Congresswoman Ann Kirkpatrick, who previously represented District 1, is the Democratic Party’s “anointed” candidate for this open seat. She has attracted party insider money as a result. Dr. Matt Heinz, who previously was the Democratic candidate in CD 2, nevertheless is raising enough money to be competitive with the likely Republican Party nominee, Lea Marquez Peterson. If Heinz manages to win over Kirkpatrick the Democratic primary, the Democratic Party money will gravitate to him because CD 2 is a competitive seat and a likely Democratic Party pickup this November. The Democratic Party really wants this seat back and will spend whatever it takes to win.

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District 3

Democratic incumbent Raúl Grijalva never raises a lot of money, mostly because he never has to in this “safe” Democratic district. Rep. Grijalva is easily winning the money race on his way to another reelection.

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District 4

Republican incumbent Paul Gosar, Arizona’s most embarrassing congressman for whom even The Arizona Republic fka The Arizona Republican pleaded with voters in an editorial opinion earlier this year, Our View: Rep. Paul Gosar is a disgrace to Arizona. Somebody please unseat him, nevertheless is enjoying the power of incumbency in the money race. Democrats and Republicans alike will need to dramatically step up their financial contributions and volunteer boots on the ground for the eventual Democratic Party nominee in order to unseat this disgrace of a congressman from office.

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District 5

Republican incumbent Andy Biggs, who parlayed winning $10 million from Publisher’s Clearinghouse a couple of decades ago into a political career, is Arizona’s next most embarrassing congressman. Biggs can self-fund if he has to, but he apparently doesn’t have to, because he is well ahead in the money race.

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District 6

Republican incumbent David Schweikert is also enjoying the power of incumbency, and is far ahead in the money race. What more is there to say?

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District 7

Democratic incumbent Ruben Gallego, a rising star in the Democratic Party, is facing only a primary challenger from a blood feud rival, Catherine Miranda, who appears to have badly miscalculated. Rep. Gallego is crushing it in the money race. Rep. Gallego can aid other Democratic candidates after the primary.

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District 8

Republican “incumbent” Debbie Lesko won a special election earlier this year by a narrow margin over Democrat Hiral Tipirneni, who substantially over-performed in the special election in this previously “safe” GOP district. Lesko has since drawn a Republican primary opponent, while Tipirneni has been free to build cash reserves for November, and is leading the money race. If Democrats continue to over-perform nationally as they have done all year, a “blue wave” election could produce another Democratic Party pickup this November in CD 8. Give generously of your time and money to Hiral Tipirneni, and let’s make this happen!

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Note: Republican Sandra Dowling had not filed an FEC report by June 30, 2018.

District 9

Incumbent Democratic Congresswoman Kyrsten Sinema is running for the Senate. CD 9 is a competitive seat which nevertheless has trended Democratic. Former Phoenix mayor Greg Stanton is the Democratic candidate for this open seat, and he is currently leading in the money race. As Democrats continue to over-perform nationally, a “blue wave” election should assure that Stanton is able to hold onto this Democratic seat.

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U.S. Senate

Democratic Congresswoman Kyrsten Sinema is leading Republican Congresswoman Martha McSally in the money race. McSally, however, has and will be the beneficiary of copious amounts of “dark money” spending by outside conservative groups desperately trying to retain this Arizona Senate seat for the GOP. This may be one of the most competitive, and one of the ugliest Senate races in the country this fall. Rep. Sinema has one of the rare opportunities this election cycle for a Democrat to pick up a Senate seat. Whatever you may think about Rep. Sinema, the die is cast and this is a must-win election. I can’t bear the thought of six more years of Martha McSally. Let’s send her packing!

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13 responses to “Who is winning the ‘money race’ so far in Arizona’s congressional and senate races?

  1. So, Blog for Arizona is trying to raise money for Ann Kirkpatrick? I didn’t see anything for any of the other CD2 candidates.

    BlogForArizona
    ‏@BlogForArizona

    Join me in supporting Ann Kirkpatrick via @actblue

    4:42 PM – 7 Aug 2018

    https://twitter.com/BlogForArizona/status/1026976803934457856

    • I also see where Blog for Arizona retweets Ann Kirkpatrick but NONE of the other CD2 candidates, at least recently.

      It’s also clear from Blog for Arizona’s Twitter TL that they like Steve Farley.

      Well, one of two things is true:
      1. Blog for Arizona endorses certain primary candidates but is not upfront about it on their blog posts.
      2. Whoever is tweeting for Blog for Arizona is expressing personal preferences and shouldn’t be.

      • Okay, I went back as far as July 11 and have only seen retweets for Ann Kirkpatrick. None (0) for other CD2 candidates, Billy Kovacs, Matt Heinz, Mary Matiella, or Bruce Wheeler.

        And that fundraising tweet is a doozie.

      • AZ BlueMeanie

        Liza loves her conspiracy theories. I saw this same conspiracy nonsense during the 2016 election with Bernie Sanders.

        First of all, Blog for Arizona as a collective group of writers or an editorial board does not endorse candidates in primaries. Individual writers have done so, but they are supposed to indicate that they are expressing their own personal opinion and are not speaking on behalf of the collective group of writers or the editorial board. Liza does not have an editorial veto to decide that they “shouldn’t be.” She doesn’t work here.

        I have made clear that I despise Twitter as a communications platform, I do not have an account, and I will never post anything on Twitter. Our other writers, however, are comfortable with Twitter and do post Blog for Arizona on that platform. They do this for marketing to expand the reach of the blog to a larger readership audience, not for some nefarious reasons that live in the wild imaginations of some of our readers.

        • No, AZBlueMeanie, it’s not a conspiracy theory, it’s a link. I can’t create them and make them work.

          Everyone understands the “collective group of writers” at BfA with their range of opinions and biases especially after the discussion on that very subject that occurred last week.

          And that argument holds up when the author’s name is attached to the article or whatever they are posting. But on Twitter there is no such identification so whatever is posted on Twitter on the BfA account could reasonably be read and perceived as a “collective” opinion. The same is true of retweeting.

          This is just general knowledge. No one is trying to exercise an “editorial veto”.

          I know you that you don’t like Twitter, you’ve been clear. But if BfA is trying to “expand the reach of the blog to a larger readership audience” as you describe, perhaps those involved in this endeavor need to pay closer attention to what they’re posting on multiple social media platforms.

          As it stands, BfA donated money to Ann Kirkpatrick and has been retweeting her tweets and has not done this for other CD2 Democratic candidates. That is verifiable, it is not a conspiracy theory.

          If BfA does not endorse candidates in primaries, as you say and I certainly believe that is true, then shouldn’t it look like that across all social media platforms in which BfA participates?

  2. Just now saw the latest TV ad attacking Matt Heinz. This time it is coming from womenvoteproject.org. It doesn’t mention Ann Kirkpatrick, but the content is that same as her attack ads, and tries to make an association between Matt Heinz and the NRA. So obviously this ad was done on her behalf as Ann Kirkpatrick needs to squash her pro-NRA background and she and her supporters are projecting it onto Matt Heinz.

    We need warriors in Congress to get us through this period of unprecedented corruption.

    So, in their infinite wisdom, the DCCC handpicks an elderly 68 year old, unremarkable, less-than-mediocre, non-resident, Republican-lite MEAN GIRL who I absolutely believe will lose in November unless the CD2 voters are so pissed at Trump they’ll vote for the Devil.

    • Here’s the ad, already on YouTube but comments are disabled. If this is how ANN KIRKPATRICK and her cronies intend to win then I would say the DEMOCRATS have a real problem.

  3. Just got yesterday’s mail and what a surprise.

    ANOTHER mailer from Ann Kirkpatrick attacking Matt Heinz. I think this is the sixth one, I’m losing count.

  4. I’ve watched this for a couple of days and I am absolutely certain it is happening.

    Ann Kirkpatrick has been posting on her Facebook page, nothing controversial, just benign stuff about canvassing, getting out the vote, etc…

    AK is deleting comments, but she doesn’t delete the weird comments made by wingnuts. She deletes comments made by people who don’t like her especially her negative campaigning against Matt Heinz.

    I wonder if this is predictive of how she will respond to CD2 constituents if elected in November.

  5. For Sure Not Tom

    This is good stuff, thank you.

    Gosar, Biggs, Lesko, McSally, Ward, Arpaio, it’s like Arizona is Florida’s DUFF.

  6. Hi Az Blue Meanie

    The District Six Graph is the same as the District Five. Please correct when you get a chance. Take care.