Wisconsin Update: Total Recall Primary on Tuesday

Posted by AzBlueMeanie:

The Wisconsin State Journal in Madison has a roundup of the latest news going into the Total Recall primary this Tuesday. Few are undecided about governor as recall primary approaches (highlights):

– The campaigns and special interests have spent about $40 million on a political blitz that has penetrated every household.

– Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett, who lost to Walker by five percentage points in the 2010 election, is expected to win the chance in Tuesday's Democratic primary to face Walker in the June 5 general election. Polls show him leading former Dane County Executive Kathleen Falk, who has received heavy union backing; Secretary of State Doug La Follette; and state Sen. Kathleen Vinehout.

– The state elections board predicts a voter turnout of 30 percent to 35 percent, or between 1.3 million and 1.5 million people, for Tuesday's primary, which would be the highest for a partisan Wisconsin primary in 60 years. Turnout is also expected to be high in June, and the race now appears to be roughly even.

Walker, Barrett in dead heat, poll says:

Gov. Scott Walker and Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett, one of the Democratic candidates hoping to face him in the June 5 recall election, are in a virtual dead heat in the days leading up to Tuesday's recall primary, according to a poll released Wednesday.

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[Barrett] has a 47 percent to 46 percent lead on the governor among registered voters, the poll said. But among likely voters, the situation flips, and Walker leads by 1 percentage point, or 48 percent to 47 percent.

Both results are well within the [Marquette University Law School] poll's margin of error.

The Marquette poll was released less than 48 hours after the candidates' deadlines to file campaign finance reports, which showed Walker with an eye-popping cash advantage.

But the Marquette poll indicates the millions spent by Walker haven't led to him pulling ahead in the polls. These recent results are even closer than Marquette's March poll, when Walker led Barrett by 2 percentage points.

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"Despite Barrett's late entry into the race, he has improved his position both among Democratic primary voters and in the general recall contest against Walker," said political science professor Charles Franklin, who is a visiting professor at Marquette and director of the law school poll. "The contest is now essentially a tie."

The poll interviewed 705 registered Wisconsin voters by both land line and cellphone and was conducted April 26-29. It has a margin of error of plus or minus about four percentage points.

Given the polling, Barrett's primary opponents are pulling their punches to keep the focus on beating Scott Walker. Dems in governor recall race make their case at final debate:

The Democratic gubernatorial hopefuls were careful not to jab each other too hard Friday and risk alienating each other's supporters; the nominee will need a united front going into June. Instead they spent most of the evening trotting out well-rehearsed talking points against Walker.

Barrett and Falk, who have emerged as the two front-runners in the Democratic race, kicked off the proceedings by taking the governor to task over a U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics report released last week that found Wisconsin lost the most jobs of any state in the country between March 2011 and March 2012.

Scott Walker promised in the 2010 campaign to create 250,000 jobs in his first term. Now, Scott Walker is talking a lot less now about his pledge to create 250,000 new jobs.

Then there is the corruption scandal swirling around Scott Walker. Barrett: Walker needs to answer about legal defense fund:

[Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett] called Wednesday for Walker to clarify why he has been allowed to set up a legal defense fund to pay expenses related to an ongoing investigation that has so far led to criminal charges against five former close aides and associates.

Barrett sought to highlight the investigation, which centers on people who served during Walker's time leading Milwaukee County before he was elected governor in 2010, as a potential recall campaign issue. Allegations ranging from campaigning on county time to embezzling money from a veterans program have ensnared people close to Walker, but the governor himself has not been charged with any wrongdoing and he has said he's cooperating with the investigation.

Under state law, officeholders may only set up such a fund in one of two cases: if they've been charged with, or are under investigation for, violations connected to campaign finance laws; or with violations connected to election laws.

Barrett. . . said Walker owes it to voters to make clear which situation applies to him. The mayor honed in on revelations this week that Walker's campaign has transferred $60,000 to the legal fund to pay for attorneys.

"I think it's only fair to ask him why he set that up," Barrett said.

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Barrett said Walker needs to disclose who his donors are and prove they have provided that consent.

"The state deserves to know who's paying his bills," the mayor said.

The ongoing investigation already has led to charges against five people who worked for or were associated with Walker's county executive office in Milwaukee before he was elected governor in 2010.

The Governor's recall has entirely overshadowed the additional recall elections for Lt. Governor Rebecca Kleefisch and four state Senate Tea-Publicans: Scott Fitzgerald (Dist. 13), Van Wanggaard (Dist. 21), Terry Moulton (Dist 23), and Pam Galloway (Dist. 29).

There are two Democrats running for Lt. Governor, and Democrats have a candidate for each senate seat, but just as they did with the earlier recall elections, the Tea-Publicans have put up "fake Democrats" in the Democratic primary, what they refer to as "recall protest" candidates.

This kind of dirty politics can have consequences in Wisconsin, which is an open primary state — Tea-Publicans can vote in the Democratic primary to protect their recalled incumbents. Cross-over voting in the Wisconsin primary has rarely ever worked in the past. The "fake Democrats" in the earlier recall primary election were all soundly defeated. But given the polarized electorate in Wisconsin right now, anything is possible.