Posted by Bob Lord I received an email blast from a friend and staunch supporter of Proposition 121 yesterday. She's a moderate Republican turned Independent, so I can understand why the "top two primary" system is attractive to her. But it's hard not to be suspicious. The Proposition is glaringly flawed in a way that … Read more
by David Safier I've gotten to know author Jeff Biggers through our mutual concern about Mexican American Studies. We've emailed, facebooked and phoned. I even read his enlightening book, "Reckoning at Eagle Creek," about the devastation caused by coal mining in Southern Illinois. But I've never met the guy. I plan to correct that Friday … Read more
by Pamela Powers Hannley Undoubtedly one of the more contentious local races this election season is the non-partisan 12-person race for three unpaid positions on the Tucson Unified School District's (TUSD) Governing Board. In this race, there are two University of Arizona professors, a call center supervisor, a Sunnyside School District employee, a self-employed landscaper, a … Read more
Posted by AzBlueMeanie:
The GOP "house effect" pollster Rasmussen Reports is out with a new poll today, Arizona Senate – Rasmussen Reports™:
The latest statewide telephone survey of Likely Arizona Voters shows Republican Congressman Jeff Flake with 47% of the vote to Democrat Richard Carmona’s 41%. Three percent (3%) prefer some other candidate, and nine percent (9%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)
The survey of 500 Likely Voters in Arizona was conducted on September 25, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percent.
Rasmussen Reports has consistently demonstrated a GOP "house effect" and GOP bias in past elections. Nate Silver's analysis of all pollsters after the 2010 election found that Rasmussen Polls Were Biased and Inaccurate; Quinnipiac, SurveyUSA Performed Strongly – NYTimes.com:
It did not make much difference whether the polls were branded as Rasmussen Reports surveys, or instead, were commissioned for Fox News by its subsidiary Pulse Opinion Research. (Both sets of surveys used an essentially identical methodology.) Polls branded as Rasmussen Reports missed by an average of 5.9 points and had a 3.9 point bias. The polls it commissioned on behalf of Fox News [Pulse Opinion Research] had a 5.1 point error, and a 3.6 point bias.
In short, the alleged six point Flake lead is entirely Rasmussen "house effect" and likely a statistical tie.
A second poll released today was conducted by Anzalone Liszt Research for the Carmona campaign and is also statistical tie. Press release from the Carmona for U.S. Senate campaign:
New poll shows Arizona U.S. Senate race tied
Anzalone Liszt Research poll shows growth potential for Carmona, ceiling for Flake
A new poll conducted by Anzalone Liszt Research shows Dr. Richard Carmona in a statistical tie with less than 6 weeks until Election Day. The poll, commissioned by the Carmona campaign, demonstrates Dr. Carmona still has significant growth potential, while Congressman Jeff Flake has only lukewarm support.
Currently, 44 percent support Flake, 43 percent choose Carmona and 3 percent back Libertarian Marc Victor. You can view the Anzalone Liszt Research memo on the poll and methodology here.
Posted by AzBlueMeanie:
The LD 8 Citizens Clean Elections Debate was held on September 12. Video replay below the fold.