July jobs report is below expectations

Steve Benen has the July jobs report. American job growth falls short of expectations in July:

Ahead of this morning’s new jobs report, most projections said the U.S. economy added roughly 190,000 jobs in July. Apparently, we didn’t do quite that well.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported this morning that the economy added 157,000 jobs in July, while the unemployment rate inched lower, going from to 4% to 3.9%. It’s the second lowest monthly jobs total of the year.

That said, the revisions for the two previous months – May and June – looked very good, with a combined gain of 59,000 jobs as compared to previous BLS reports.

JulyJobs

In terms of the larger context, this morning’s data points to 1.5 million jobs created so far in 2018, which is evidence of a healthy job market, and which is an improvement on the totals from the first seven months of 2016 and 2017. That said, this year’s tally is still short of the totals from the first seven months of 2014 and 2015.

Here is another chart, this one showing monthly job losses/gains in just the private sector since the start of the Great Recession.

JulyPrivate

The Washington Post points out that wage growth remains stagnant (so much for the GOP tax cut scam):

The U.S. economy has added jobs for 94 consecutive months, a record streak that shows no signs of waning despite President Trump’s escalating trade war. Many business leaders have warned the standoffs with China, the European Union and other major trading partners could cause layoffs if tariffs stay in place for an extended period of time.

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CD6 Candidate Garrick McFadden Knows How Democrats Can Beat Schweikert & Gosar

Paying another visit to the Coffee Bean on Indian School and Miller in Scottsdale, Congressional District Six candidate Garrick McFadden offered his perspective (while I devoured a Volcano Brownie) on how Democrats can win in CD 6 and other state offices and local and congressional districts while improving their party infrastructure. Saying “demographics is destiny,” … Read more

New Poll: Sinema and McSally in Statistical Tie in US Senate Race

  • Sinema leads McSally, 48-44 percent, an improvement for McSally from 48-42 percent in June, but still behind for a red state. This is within the 4% margin of error of the poll.
  • Sinema leads Arpaio by a huge margin at 54-36 percent (+18). Sinema also has a double-digit lead against Ward; 51-41 percent (+10).
  • McSally holds an eight-point lead over Ward; 20-point lead over Arpaio.

A new poll from OH Predictive Insights of Phoenix, Arizona has put Representative Martha McSally in the lead of the Republican primary, but continuing to trail in the general election to Representative Kyrsten Sinema. The poll also finds that Republicans struggle with moderate voters and their disapproval of President Donald Trump. They believe this continues to hurt their chances in the Senate race as opinions of the President become more polarized.

Arizona’s OH Predictive Insights and ABC15 Arizona (OHPI/ABC15) teamed up to find out who is currently winning the Senate race and why.

“The Arizona Senate contest is tightening and expect the attacks to ramp up as we head closer to election day,” said Mike Noble, managing partner and chief pollster at OH Predictive Insights, a Phoenix-based research polling company. “We have a better chance of finding a photo of Sheriff Joe Arpaio wearing pink underwear and eating green bologna than to see him as the next elected Senator of Arizona.”

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The Truth Behind Second Amendment Activism

By Michael Bryan Consider for a moment what you would want as a manufacturer and merchant of firearms: to sell lots and lots of guns, as many as you can, to anyone who can pay for them. That’s simply what every business wants. I claim that, at base, all the behavior of “gun rights” activists … Read more