Perhaps the strongest indication yet that Arizona’s 11 Electoral College votes are in play next year came today, when a major political ad-tracking firm noted that $249M worth of TV, radio and digital ads will bombard Arizona between now and November 3. 2020. Only two states will see more ad spending for the Presidential and Senate general election campaigns.*
Advertising Analytics predicts that $6B will be spent on advertising nationwide for the Presidential, Congressional and gubernatorial races.
Arizonans can expect to see $141M spent on the Presidential race after the nominees are picked. Only Florida ($339M) and Pennsylvania ($288M) will see more.
Add in that Advertising Analytics reports that Arizona will likely see $108M worth of ads in the most heavily-advertised Senate race in the nation – for the special election to serve out the rest of the late John McCain’s term – and Arizona two major TV markets will nearly match those in Florida and Pennsylvania (on a per-market average).
Arizona also has three House seats listed as somewhat competitive (“Likely”) and approximately $10M of video advertising for those is expected.
*If you factor in spending for the Presidential primary election campaign, New Hampshire and Nevada may see more total spending (and, earlier).