Veterans upset with Jeff Flake’s attack on veteran Richard Carmona
May 14, 2012
Posted by AzBlueMeanie: Last week Alexis Tameron from the Dr. Richard Carmona for U.S. Senate campaign sent out a memo to the media on the state of the race and predicted a long hot summer for Rep. Flake in his GOP primary contest with Richie Rich Wil Cardon. AZ/DC Blog – Carmona campaign predicts 'miserable' summer … Read more
Fact Check: Jesse Kelly’s ‘pants on fire’ – ‘saving’ social security and Medicare through increased domestic energy production
May 13, 2012
Posted by AzBlueMeanie:
One of the statements from Jesse Kelly that is a sort of "six degrees of Kevin Bacon" kind of analysis is when he claims that he is going to "save" social security and Medicare through increased domestic energy production in the United States. It is an attempt to connect together the two focus group tested issues that his campaign wants to run on.
No part of mineral severance, or royalties, or energy taxes, etc. are used for social security and Medicare. These programs are funded through payroll tax deductions from workers.
So unless Kelly' is proposing new taxes on energy producers to be dedicated to social security and Medicare — rest assured he is not — his statement requires some explanation: Kelly is arguing that producing more domestic energy –> creates more jobs –> creates more payroll tax deductions for social security and Medicare.
Have you noticed that he never estimates how many new jobs (from a credible source)?
For April, the Bureau of Labor Statisitics estimates there are 12.5 million unemployed actively seeking work. There are another 7.9 milliom who are considered involuntary part-time workers. And another 2.4 million who are marginally attached to the work force — persons who want and are available to work, but who have looke for work marginally in the past year, many of whom have given up hope. The Employment Situation – April 2012 – US Bureau of Labor Statistics (.pdf).
That's 22.8 million Americans who are either unemployed or underemployed. The Bush years were a "lost decade" of job creation compounded by the catastrophic job losses of the Bush Great Recession. Repost: The Bush Years Were a Lost Decade. The U.S. is still digging out of the unemployment hole that GOP economic policies produced in the last decade, let alone creating enough jobs for new workers entering the work force today. (If the Bush tax cuts actually encouraged the so-called "job creators" to create jobs, "Mr. Boehner, where are the jobs?")
The one energy production project that has received the most attention this year is the Keystone Pipeline. TransCanada, the company that wants to build the pipeline, says Keystone would create 20,000 "direct" jobs. That includes 13,000 construction jobs and 7,000 jobs making stuff like pump houses and the pipe itself. It also projects nearly 120,000 "indirect" jobs — think restaurant workers and hotel employees to support the construction. Keystone pipeline: How many jobs it would really create – CNN Money:
But TransCanada numbers count each job on a yearly basis. If the pipeline employs 10,000 people working for two years, that's 20,000 jobs by the company's count.
The estimates also include jobs in Canada, where about a third of the $7 billion pipeline would be constructed.
The U.S. State Department, which must green light the project, forecasts just 5,000 direct U.S. jobs over a two year construction period.
Even according to TransCanada, the amount of permanent jobs created would be only in the hundreds.
Another study from Cornell University said the pipeline could actually lead to a decline in jobs in the long run. One reason is that the pipeline would lead to higher fuel prices in the Midwest, the study said, and that would slow consumer spending and cost jobs.
So TransCanada says only "hundreds" of permanent new jobs. When we have 22.8 million Americans who are either unemployed or underemployed. This is only one project, but it is illustrative of the fact that increased domestic energy production is not going to create anywhere near the millions of new jobs needed –> to create more payroll taxes for social security and Medicare –> or substantially reduce the unemployment rate. Massive numbers of new jobs in domestic energy production is a "pipe dream."
The Real Impact of Obama’s Same Sex Marriage Stance
May 13, 2012
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Posted by Bob Lord As AZBlueMeanie has pointed out, this was quite a week in the Presidential campaign. I found the analysis of the “thinking right” particularly interesting. The Wall Street Journal noted the political risk that Obama was taking, especially in North Carolina, where voters adopted a constitutional same sex marriage ban on a … Read more
Barber-Kelly article in the Star: Textbook false equivalence
May 13, 2012
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by David Safier
Before carefully and accurately taking apart Brady McCombs' front page article in the Sunday Star, "Seniors' benefits dominate CD 8 race" (print edition only), AZ Blue Meanie accuses me of being a soft old teacher, always looking for the good in people. Guilty as charged. See, the high school English teacher in me saw a marked improvement in McCombs' article on the Kelly press conference in the print edition over the earlier online version. It went from a C- online to a B+ in print. But then he didn't write a similar article, online or in the print edition, covering the Barber press conference the next week even though he was there taking notes. That's a double F for failure to turn in required work. And as the Meanie demonstrates in detail, today's article creates a false equivalence between the truth and falsehood of a number of assertions made by the Barber and Kelly campaigns.
Grading today's article is bit of a stumper for this old teacher. I'll have give it a B+ for style and readability over a D for giving readers the information they need to separate fact from fiction. Since I prize content over style, the overall grade is a C-.
Eight paragraphs into the article, there's nothing but a simplistic "He said, He said" recitation of the way the two sides portray each other on Social Security and Medicare. Since most readers won't get much farther than that, the takeaway is: Both sides are spinning equally, so when you vote, choose the guy whose looks you like the best.
[Note: I understand this is how articles are structured, moving from the general to the specific. But instead of wasting the sidebar with a list of mind-numbing figures, the space could have been used to summarize the arguments on both sides and to rate their validity.]
Jeff Flake’s anti-science amendment
May 13, 2012
Posted by AzBlueMeanie: The anti-science agenda of the GOP now extends to political science as well. Ezra Klein writes at his WonkBlog, Jeff Flake’s plan to politicize the National Science Foundation: On Thursday, on a mostly party-line vote, the House passed an amendment by Rep. Jeff Flake (R-Ariz.) to prohibit the National Science Foundation from … Read more
Statistical literacy
May 13, 2012
Posted by AzBlueMeanie: Kathleen Geier at the Political Animal blog has this important post for anyone who has ever had to suffer through analyzing the "research" (sic) produced by right-wing billionaire-funded think tanks like the Goldwater Institute. On the importance of statistical literacy: Over at Ten Miles Square, my blogging colleague Kevin Carey recently argued … Read more
The Star’s Brady McCombs: ‘You’re Fired!’
May 13, 2012
Posted by AzBlueMeanie:
The Arizona Daily Star's replacement political reporter for veteran political report Rhonda Bodfield, who had the good sense to jump a sinking ship, is Brady McCombs.
McCombs' political reporting during the GOP Special Election primary was pure stenography. He never asked a penetrating question, and never got the "balance" quote from the Barber campaign in response to the GOP. And fact checking? Fuhgettaboutit!
David Safier, whose patience as a classroom teacher shows, has bent over backwards for this guy, arguing that McCombs was thrown into a difficult situation having to take over the political reporting assignment just as Congresswoman Giffords resigned and a Special Election was getting under way. David has argued that McCombs was in over his head and just needed some time and encouragement to catch up and to do a better job of reporting — always the teacher, that David.
Well school's out, son. Welcome to the real world of work. I have done employment law for over 20 years. I have reviewed the hiring and firing and disciplinary actions of well over a thousand employees (I've lost count) during that time. Your probationary period is over, Mr. McCombs. Time for your performance review.
In today's print edition only exclusive in the Sunday Star captioned 'Senior's benefits dominate CD 8 race," Brady McCombs ventures outside of his comfort zone of "strictly stenography" and into political commentary in what is supposed to be a hard news story — a sin common in the modern corporate media. When he ventures into commentary, it exposes the fact that he is either: (a) incompetent, or (b) uninformed, or (c) purposefully misleading. McCombs demonstrates that he lacks the knowledge and experience in policy matters and politics necessary to be a good political reporter. Probation is over. As Donald Trump would say, "You''re fired!"
In his opening lede, McCombs asserts "The race to replace Rep. Gabrielle Giffords in Congress has been hijacked by Social Security and Medicare" to the detriment of other pressing issues. This is because the NRCC has chosen to run the same campaign that it ran in 2010 against Democratic candidates across the country. This is a deliberate strategy by the NRCC, nothing has been "hijacked" — the NRCC wants to narrow the issues down to a single issue and pound home its $500 billion lie that will not die. Fact Check: The NRCC's 'pants on fire' – the $500 billion lie that will not die and Fact Check: Jesse Kelly's 'pants on fire' – the $500 billion lie that will not die.
Reminder: PCDP Hello / Goodbye Party
May 13, 2012
Posted by AzBlueMeanie: Event announcement from the Pima County Democratic Party: Hello / Goodbye Party SPECIAL EVENT! Pima Dems Invites you to say… Hello / Goodbye Thursday, May 17, 20125:00pmLobby at Hotel Congress311 East Congress(Public Parking Garage Available at Congress and 4th Ave.) Join the Pima County Democratic Party as we say “Goodbye” to our … Read more
