The U.S. economy added 209,000 jobs in July, according to government data released Friday morning, surpassing economists’ expectations. U.S job growth surges in July, as U.S. fully regains jobs lost in recession:
The unemployment rate ticked down to 4.3 percent, compared with 4.4 percent in June, and wages rose by 2.5 percent from the year before to $26.36 in July.
“It was pretty solid across the board,” said Michael Feroli, chief U.S. economist at JP Morgan. “It suggests there is really no slowing in the momentum of the labor market.”
President Trump greeted the report as evidence of his administration’s success, tweeting Friday morning, “Excellent Jobs Numbers just released – and I have only just begun.”
Remember when this carnival barker con man dismissed the official unemployment rate published by the Labor Department as “such a phony number,” “one of the biggest hoaxes in American modern politics” and “the biggest joke there is”? He variously described the real rate as 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 24, 25, 28, 29, 30 and 35 percent. In August 2016, he told Time magazine that the “real unemployment rate is 42 percent.” Trump called the government’s job numbers ‘phony.’ What happens now that he’s in charge of them? The man is a shameless liar who frequently takes credit for things he has had nothing to do with. Trump says he created 600,000 jobs. Not true.
Yet average monthly jobs gains this year, which are now at 184,000, are basically in line with the average monthly gains of 187,000 in 2016.
“We’re looking at job growth that was pretty similar to what we were getting a year ago or two years ago. I just don’t think at a business cycle frequency these things respond to political developments,” Feroli said.
Steve Benen makes this same point in his monthly jobs report. U.S. job growth remains steady and strong in July:
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported this morning that the U.S. economy added 209,000 jobs in July, which is down a bit from June, but which is nevertheless further evidence of a health job market. The unemployment rate, meanwhile, inched a little lower to 4.3%.
As for the revisions, the totals for May were revised down, while June were revised up, and combined they show a net gain of about 2,000 jobs.
All told, if current averages keep up, we’re on track to see the U.S. economy add about 2.2 million jobs this calendar year, which would be roughly in line with what we saw last year.
Above you’ll find the chart I run every month, showing monthly job losses since the start of the Great Recession. The image makes a distinction: red columns point to monthly job totals under the Bush and Trump administrations, while blue columns point to job totals under the Obama administration.
Here’s another chart, this one showing monthly job losses/gains in just the private sector since the start of the Great Recession.
The Post report continues:
July’s additions also signify a notable turning point for the U.S. economy: After accounting for shifts in population, the level of employment has returned to what it was at in November 2007, before the recession decimated the job market, according to new research by the Brooking Institution’s Hamilton project.
“It does not mean there’s no slack in the economy, [or] that we’re at full employment. But it does mean the job losses from the great recession are behind us,” said Diane Whitmore Schanzenbach, one of the report’s authors.
So it took a decade to dig out of the hole that George W. Bush and his GOP controlled Congress dug for the economy, followed by the scorched earth obstructionism of evil GOP bastard Mitch McConnell and a Tea-Publican Congress to every economic recovery plan put forward by President Barack Obama. Ol’ Mitch wanted President Obama “to fail” rather than to do anything to help the economy recover and put people back to work. And this came after the Aughts were a lost decade for U.S. economy, workers:
For most of the past 70 years, the U.S. economy has grown at a steady clip, generating perpetually higher incomes and wealth for American households. But since 2000, the story is starkly different.
The past decade was the worst for the U.S. economy in modern times, a sharp reversal from a long period of prosperity that is leading economists and policymakers to fundamentally rethink the underpinnings of the nation’s growth.
It was, according to a wide range of data, a lost decade for American workers.
* * *
There has been zero net job creation since December 1999. No previous decade going back to the 1940s had job growth of less than 20 percent. Economic output rose at its slowest rate of any decade since the 1930s as well.
Middle-income households made less in 2008, when adjusted for inflation, than they did in 1999 — and the number is sure to have declined further during a difficult 2009. The Aughts were the first decade of falling median incomes since figures were first compiled in the 1960s.
And the net worth of American households — the value of their houses, retirement funds and other assets minus debts — has also declined when adjusted for inflation, compared with sharp gains in every previous decade since data were initially collected in the 1950s.
The key finding: “[B]eyond these dramatic ups and downs lies an even more sobering reality: long-term economic stagnation.”
This economic stagnation has continued as a result of Republican policies, and is the source of Americans economic insecurity and discontent (and yet they continue to vote for their oppressors out of some kind of Stockholm syndrome).
Now, this is where a certain blog troll who seems to think that the stock market is the U.S. economy — it is not, it is only a slice of publicly traded companies in a much larger and far more complex economy — will extol the so-called “Trump rally” that has led the stock market to a record closing over 22,000 this week.
This would be the same stock market rally that Donald Trump “assailed as a mirage and mused about a potential conspiracy that was being plotted between Janet L. Yellen, the Federal Reserve chairwoman, and President Barack Obama.” Trump Praises the Stock Market at 22,000 That He Said Was a Bubble at 18,000:
Before the Iowa caucuses, Mr. Trump decided to dispense some financial advice. The recent dip in stocks was a harbinger of worse things to come, he warned, and he hoped that the coming crash did not happen after Mr. Obama left office.
“Remember the word bubble? You heard it here first. I don’t want to sound rude, but I hope if it explodes, it’s going to be now, rather than two months into another administration,” Mr. Trump said in December 2015.
Although he was feeling confident about locking up the Republican nomination in April 2016, Mr. Trump was feeling increasingly bearish about stocks. He told The Washington Post that they were overvalued and that the strong data that showed a healthy economy were essentially phony.
“I think we’re sitting on an economic bubble. A financial bubble,” Mr. Trump said.
By September, he was arguing that the Federal Reserve was propping up a “false economy” that is actually weak.
“The only thing that is strong is the artificial stock market,” Mr. Trump told Reuters.
Mr. Trump saved his most brutal assessment of the stock market, and the economy, for his first presidential debate with Hillary Clinton. In response to her criticism of his economic proposals, he said that the recovery was the worst since the Great Depression and that it would come crashing down the moment that interest rates rise.
When compared in context, the so-called “Trump rally” is not as significant as those for George H.W. Bush, who inherited a growing economy, or Barack Obama, who inherited the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression. Trump stock market performance eclipsed by Obama and Bush:
President Trump regularly boasts about the stock market’s strong performance since his inauguration, including how the Dow Jones Industrial Average is at a record high. What Trump hasn’t noted, however, is that Barack Obama and George H.W. Bush oversaw greater stock market expansion during their first six months in office, as judged by percentage growth of the S&P 500.
Context: Obama took office in the midst of an economic recession, so much of his S&P 500 increase was a rebound from the depths. Trump, on the other hand, inherited an already-growing market that has accelerated since his inauguration.
Data: Samuel H. Williamson, MeasuringWorth; Chart: Andrew Witherspoon / Axios.