New Poll: Sinema Beats McSally, Ward or Arpaio in US Senate Race


Sinema vs McSally, Ward, Arpaio

Regardless who the Republicans choose as their candidate for the Arizona US Senate seat, a new poll shows Democratic Congress member Kyrsten Sinema winning against them.

The survey by OH Predictive Insights and ABC15 says that the key reason is independent voters, who have a very negative view of GOP leader President Trump, and the negative view that voters in general have of Republicans Kelli Ward, Joe Arpaio, and Martha McSally.

And this is despite the 12% advantage that the GOP has (1,223,219 registered Republicans) over Democrats (1,090,310 registered Democrats) in Arizona. The survey sample reflected the Republican +12-point advantage over Democrats.

Democrats are unified

“The issue we are consistently seeing in the numbers is that Democrats are unified, Republicans are less united, and the all-important Independent voters are trending anti-Republican/Trump” said Mike Noble, managing partner at OH Predictive Insights of Phoenix. “The factors to look for will be if there are enough voters that do not view Trump favorably that still vote the Republican party.”

The survey did not mention Democrat Deedra Abboud, an attorney and Muslim-American community activist, whom Sinema faces in the August 28 primary.

Voters dislike Trump

One of the most important factors in any mid-term election is the voters’ perception of the president affecting other races. Despite the 12-point GOP advantage in the poll, the President’s favorability is in the red. Currently, Trump’s image is underwater by 13-points.

Importantly, independents view Trump even more unfavorably – by a staggering 49-point margin.

The poll found that crazy Kelli ward was best-known in Maricopa County, where 41% view her unfavorably. Seldom-seen McSally is best-known in Pima County, but a majority of Pima County voters (51%) have a negative view of her. Mean Joe Arpaio is best known in Maricopa Countyy, where 68% of voters view him unfavorably.

In contrast, Sinema is best known in Maricopa County where 53% view her favorably and only 27% view her unfavorably.

The poll finds that if the primary were held today, Kelly Ward would win the Republican nomination with 36% of the votes, compared with 27% of the votes for McSally and 22% of the votes for Arpaio.

“Unless Donald Trump can turn his approval numbers around, it may prove to be a problem for any Republican candidate who needs that support to win the primary as they pivot to the general election,” Noble said.

For further reading see:

Kyrsten Sinema is the Democrat who can Beat McSally for US Senate

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Larry Bodine is President of Democrats of Greater Tucson. He began writing for the Blog for Arizona in June, 2017. He is an active Democratic Party precinct committeeman, and teaches “Getting Active in Local Politics” at the University of Arizona-OLLI program. He attends many live political events and reports on them for the Blog For Arizona — See His 44-year career includes reporting for the New York Daily News, which was then the largest-circulation US newspaper, at a time when he won 7 awards for investigative journalism. Bodine is an attorney and is a member in good standing of the Wisconsin State Bar. Previously Bodine served as editor of several legal publications, including the American Bar Association Journal,, and the National Law Journal.


  1. Could Ms. Ward really be first in the AZ GOP clown car?

    Kelli Ward Takes Commanding Lead in Arizona GOP Primary

    Tempe, AZ – A new statewide survey shows Dr. Kelli Ward building momentum and establishing a lead over her two GOP primary opponents. The ABC15/OHPI poll, conducted April 10-11 by Arizona’s OH Predictive Insights and ABC15, found that Dr. Ward leads her closest primary opponent, Martha McSally, by a 9-point margin.

  2. I suppose a half-Democrat is better than a fringe Republican for Flake’s seat (like Doug Jones in Alabama?), but it’s still very annoying that Sinema is even being considered to be the Dem candidate.

  3. I called Kyrsten Sinema’s office for a second time suggesting that she explain her vote in favor of the Balanced Budget Amendment that would decimate the Social Security Trust Fund currently at 2.9 trillion dollars. They were more receptive this time, perhaps being aware that many people are asking the same question.

    We know, of course, that the BBA was never going to pass in the House. But it sends a very worrisome message from Ms. Sinema to her constituents which she hopes will include the whole state after the next election.

    And it’s not just Social Security that would suffer negative consequences. Ms. Sinema needs to clear this up. It is not a small issue to be swept under the rug. If she “reaches across the aisle” too many times and votes with Trump and the GOP too often (currently at 57.4 percent of the time), maybe she needs to sit over there with them.

    I think the Democrats have a real shot at taking a Senate seat. And Ms. Sinema’s “independent” strategy may work to her advantage. But she needs to make a commitment to protect the social safety net and she needs to do it soon now that the spotlight is on her.

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