Revenge of the Newt: South Carolina responds to dog whistle politics

Posted by AzBlueMeanie:

After the Super PACs backing Willard "Mittens" Romney purportedly destroyed disgraced former House Speaker Newt Gingrich in Iowa, Stephen Colbert did a segment of his show in which he quipped:

“Oh, Mitt. You have made a fatal mistake. You may have wounded Newt — but you left him alive. And alone with his first love: Hate."

As a native son of South Carolina, Colbert understood what anyone familiar with South Carolina politics understood: Newt would play the victimhood card of conservative grievance and he would blow the dog whistle of GOP Southern strategy racial politics. Newt’s Southern Strategy – NYTimes.com (Charles Blow).

The GOP establishment and the conservative media noise machine came together and tried to bestow on Willard "Mittens" Romney the cloak of inevitability. Two weeks ago, polling in South Carolina had "Mittens" up by double digits after New Hampshire. I scoffed at these polls. This was Carolinians just messing with the hated media pollsters. There was simply no way that the ultra-conservative end-times Christian Reconstructionist and Dominionist voters that comprise the GOP base in South Carolina were ever going to vote for what Gingrich labeled the "Massachusetts moderate" and a Mormon.

I will concede that I misread this voting block. I thought that after Rick "man on dog" Santorum won the Iowa Caucus and received the endorsement of the Evangelical right leaders last week that this voting block would coalesce around him. But it turns out that Santorum has a fatal flaw in GOP politics: he is somewhat reluctant to blow the dog whistle of GOP Southern strategy racial politics. Newt Gingrich embraces it.

Last night, Newt Gingrich got his revenge against Willard "Mittens" Romney in South Carolina. What had been a purported double digit lead for "Mittens" in South Carolina two weeks ago turned into a double-digit route. His poll numbers collapsed. Newt has taken away the cloak of inevitability bestowed on "Mittens" by the GOP establishment and the conservative media noise machine. And on the question of "electability" (can defeat Obama) Gingrich beat Romney 51-37%. Primaries – Exit/Entrance Polls – from CNN.com.

This is a remarkable result. As GOP strategist Steve Schmidt commented last night, Newt Gingrich has 100% name I.D. and has consistently scored over 60% unfavorabe ratings in poll numbers for years. He is toxic. Yet South Carolina voters would rather vote for the devil than vote for "Mittens," and lucky for them the devil was on the ballot. Schmidt predicted that if Gingrich can carry his momentum to a win in Florida at the end of the month, the GOP establishment is going to go into full panic mode. UPDATE: Steve Schmidt: Gingrich Win in Florida Will Lead to Panic and Meltdown of Republican Establishment. 

It is now a two man race between Romney and Gingrich. Rick "man on dog" Santorum will stay in for now only because Newt Gingrich is wearing a suicide bomb vest and may blow himself up at any moment as he has been known to do over the years, leaving Santorum as the only "Not-the-Romney" alternative. Failing that, Santorum is hoping to cement his status for the VP nomination.

Every media villager will trot out the trope today that "Since it was first held 32 years ago, the South Carolina Republican primary has been won by the party’s eventual nominee." Does this mean that Newt Gingrich is now the eventual GOP nominee for president? Not necessarily in one of the most unpredictable GOP primary seasons in many years.