Ron Barber to run for CD 2 congressional seat

Posted by AzBlueMeanie:

I'll put in my two cents to what David Safier posted.

I had more than one Democratic candidate tell me that Ron Barber would not run for the CD 2 congressional seat this November. Their plans to run for Congress were premised, at least in part, on the belief that Ron Barber would not be a candidate for CD 2.

I can't say that promises were made and broken. I think there were a lot of assumptions made that turned out to be wrong.

The Arizona Daily Star reports Barber to seek permanent seat in Congress:

In somewhat of a surprise announcement, Democrat Ron Barber said Monday he will run for office in the newly drawn Congressional District 2 later this year.

Barber, Rep. Gabrielle Giffords’ long time district director, is already running to complete his former boss’ term in the Congressional District 8 special election. He is running unopposed in the Democratic primary and will face one of four Republicans vying for that party’s spot in the June 12 special election.

When Barber, 66, announced on Feb. 9 he would run in the special election, he didn’t close the door on competing in the CD2 election. But it was widely speculated that Barber, who has never run for public office, would choose only to complete Giffords’ term and then return to his career behind the scenes.

After five weeks on the campaign trail, however, Barber came to the conclusion he wanted to become a full time U.S. congressman.

The question now becomes if the four other Democrats who have already committed to running in CD2 will stay in the race: state Rep. Steve Farley; state Sen. Paula Aboud; state Rep. Matt Heinz; and Nomiki Konst, a former University of Arizona student.

The candidate announcement from Nan Stockholm Walden expected last week also did not occur.

Here is the problem: if Ron Barber wins the special election for CD 8, he would be an incumbent and other Democrats would be under pressure to clear the field in a Democratic primary for CD 2. The special election is not until June, but the filing deadline for the CD 2 primary is in May. If these candidates were to drop out now to run for other offices and Ron Barber were to lose the CD 8 special election in June, a distinct possibility, the Democrats could be left with only Ron Barber with the taint of having just lost the CD 8 special election. There could be a write-in candidate for the August primary.

If the announced candidates stay in, there will be a Democratic primary against an incumbent if Barber wins the CD 8 special election, something Democrats try to discourage in a swing district. If Barber loses the CD 8 special election, however, it could be a wide open Democratic primary.

Representatives Steve Farley and Matt Heinz will have a tough decision to make. This could set off musical chairs in legislative district races.

UPDATE: Well that didn't take long. The Tucson Weekly reports:

Barber Reax: Heinz Says He'll Stay in CD2 Race State Rep. Matt Heinz says he plans to continue running for Congress, even though Ron Barber, the former Giffords' aide, announced today that he plans to run in Congressional District 2 in the fall.

Barber Reax: Farley Abandons Congressional Run, Now Running for State Senate State Rep. Steve Farley says "I'm going to focus back on the Senate race in District 9 and see if we can retake that majority."

Expect some candidates to change their plans in LD 9.