Stop Worrying About Polls & Just Pay Attention to the ‘Keys to White House’

Watch this interview with Allen Lichtman before reading:

I don’t fully buy into Lichtman’s Keys theory, but it has proven a very effective predictive tool. We should pay attention to results. Polls this far out predict exactly NOTHING. The fundamental nature of such national races, however, does matter and does have predictive power. Lichtman is slated to issue his final prediction in August following the party conventions.

Here is how Litchman’s model predicted Trump’s defeat in 2020:

Lichtman’s keys model tells us what REALLY matters to determining the Presidential election, and why the “replace Biden” nonsense is the stupidest idea in the world. We would have to give up Litchman’s incumbency key to replace Biden. That would be strategically insane.

The real money betting markets, which I find to be much more reliable predictors than costless hot-air from pundits and poll interpreters are also trending toward Biden now.

The Keys are now pointing to an incumbent victory in 2024. Things could go wrong for Biden, of course, but several of the keys would have to drastically shift between now and the election according to Litchman.

I could argue with Litchman regarding the party mandate Key based on Dem overperformance in 2022 and the steady erosion and implosion of the GOP’s House majority and its utter ineffectuality, but I’ll leave that one alone.

I think Biden is already winning both the short and long-term economy keys by a landslide and the narrative of ‘economic sentiment’ is the way the GOP and media are working to undermine that key. There are signs that Americans are having a very different experience of this economy based on their income level, however, and we Democrats need to be cognizant of that reality and work to ameliorate it with Presidential action that can help lower income citizens. Hence Biden’s war on fees. He and his team are well aware and taking steps.

Litchman identifies several Shakey Keys for Biden in his analysis of the model this year, the outcome of which will determine the result in November, in his view:

1. Third-Party Bids: Litchman sees a possibility of a serious third-party challenge, specifically from (wormbrain) RFK Jr., as a possible chaos factor. If RFK Jr. were to take off and capture around 10% of the vote, this key for Biden could be imperiled. I think that despite a few polls having RFK Jr. polling that high, he is a self-discrediting joke candidate who hurts Trump more than Biden, despite his storied Democratic name.
2. Social Unrest (Gaza Palestinian Protests): Litchman thinks this Key could still be destabilizing for Biden. I think that very few liberal progressives are going to stay home and not vote, or vote for Trump or a third party to spite Biden over his Israel/Palestine policy. Signs are clear that Biden is listening to those who want him to pursue a more balanced policy that recognizes that BiBi is actually harming Israel’s long-term interests with his reckless war strategy, and is really serving only his own personal political survival. I suspect that we will have a permanent cease-fire before Ramadan ends and Gaza will recede in importance and volatility in domestic politics.
3. (and 4) Foreign Policy Success / Failure (Middle East and Ukraine): These Keys and the Social Unrest Key are closely linked this year. As stated above, I think Biden’s experience and political acumen will bring us to a safe harbor in Gaza. The GOP will never be satisfied – even if Biden brokered a permanent peace in Israel/Palestine tomorrow, they would criticize and demonize the result – their opinion is therefore irrelevant. I think Biden can and will resolve this crisis successfully before the election, most likely by withdrawing all support for BiBi’s government in favor of new leadership – Biden’s maneuvers to abandon the ‘bear hug’ policy are already in train. As to Ukraine, the President has steered a course around Congressional gridlock on this issue by unlocking Mike Johnson’s opposition to further funding of Ukrainian defense. This does not assure that his Ukraine policy will be an unqualified success, but it likely puts off any catastrophic collapse of Ukrainian resistance until after the election. With certain NATO members starting to step up in major ways financially and militarily, I judge Biden’s Ukraine policy a victory for the President, or at least not a failure. Slava Ukrainii!

All four of these Keys would have to go against Biden for him to lose to Trump under the Keys model. I think there is very little sign of that happening, and I feel very confident about the Democratic position vis-a-vis that of the GOP for a great number of reasons: general candidate quality at the top and down-ballot, Americans being fed up with election denialism and alarmed over the GOP’s radicalism, likely Trump convictions and ongoing trial coverage, fundraising trends, mid-term and irregular election performance, policy victories for Democrats, the disastrous result of overturning Roe, and Trump’s continual efforts to narrow rather than expand his base of support, all leave me definitively preferring our position over that of the opposition heading into the election.

Don’t get lazy. Work your heart out for candidates you believe in. And feel confident that this generation of Americans will stand firm against all enemies foreign and domestic, as we have done throughout our history. We shall prevail against this madness of fascism in the MAGA movement that has consumed the GOP.