UPDATE 11/2/24: With early vote distribution and the latest polling coming in I am leaning a bit more optimistic about the strength of Harris’ victory. I would now reduce the probability of my most likely scenario (Harris gets 270-276 EC votes) to 60% and next most likely (Harris by 277 to 320 EC votes) up … Read more
There are very few places where the battle for control of the Presidency, the U.S. Congress, and for control of a state legislature overlap more tightly than in Tucson’s northern suburbs and exurbs. That makes the jurisdictions in and around the Southern Arizona region, such as Arizona’s 6th Congressional District (CD6), and the 16th and … Read more
You need to know who Juan Ciscomani REALLY is: Many independent Arizona voters here in Southern Arizona voted in good faith for a moderate Republican in 2022. That’s not what they got. They got a religious fanatic intent on forcing his religious views onto the women of Arizona and America. That is not what the … Read more