Joe Arpaio

Arizona Will Have a Democratic US Senator, So Long As…

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Martha McShifty, Kooki Ward, Evil Joe and Congress member Kyrsten Sinema
Martha McShifty, Kooki Ward, Evil Joe and Congress member Kyrsten Sinema

Two new polls show that Arizona will have a Democratic US Senator — but that depends if Democrats actually become politically active and work for a candidate. And we know from the 2016 election how accurate polls can be.

✪ “In a GOP state that President Trump carried by not quite four points, the Democrats are positioned to pick up a Senate seat in their efforts to gain the majority of the upper chamber,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of the Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.

When the GOP candidates are matched against Democrat Kyrsten Sinema in hypothetical general election contests, Sinema leads all three. Sinema (57%) is strongest against Arpaio (32%) where she is ahead by 25 points. Sinema’s (49%) lead narrows against McSally (38%) to 11 points. Sinema is also ahead of Ward by 10 points, 48% to 38%.

✪ Echoing this projection, a new Emerson College ePoll finds Rep. Kyrsten Sinema in the lead for the Democratic nomination and also ahead of her three Republican rivals in hypothetical head to head match ups.

In the head-to-head matchup, Sinema leads all her Republican challengers. McSally appears to be the strongest competition (trailing Sinema 40% to 32%), while Arpaio (trailing 54% to 30%), and would most likely have the most difficult time defending the seat for the Republican Party if he was to receive the nomination.

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The John C. Scott Political Forum - 1030 KVOI AM

John C. Scott Radio: Who will be the Winners in US Senate, Governor and Tucson’s CD2 Congress Races

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The John C. Scott Political Forum - 1030 KVOI AM
The John C. Scott Political Forum – 1030 KVOI AM

Click below to hear broadcaster John C. Scott interview writer Larry Bodine of the Blog for Arizona on a recent radio program covering the Arizona race for US Senate, the race for Governor and the Democratic primary for Congress in Tucson’s CD2.

Topics covered:

US Senate:

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  • Kyrsten Sinema — she’s now running ads as if she’s in the general election. She running on three winning issues: access to healthcare, better education and creating jobs that pay well.
  • Republicans are running on losing issues: fear of immigrants, the Second Amendment and repealing Obamacare.
  • Martha McSally: a new poll shows her in the lead against Kelli Ward and evil Joe Arpaio. McSally is running anti-immigrant ads, but this will doom her in general election. She’s known as “Marty McShifty.” She flip-flopped on immigration and on supporting Trump. Now she brags, “I get invited to the White House all the time.”
  • Joe Arpaio is a disgrace, embarrassing even Republicans.
  • Kelli Ward is pro-war, anti-immigration and pro-guns in schools — kissing up to the tea party.
  • On YouTube, McSally’s top recent video got 880 views. In comparison Sinema’s announcement for running got 25,000 views, her video on affordable healthcare got 6,000 views, and video about her brother Paul got 9,000 views.
  • 7 Democrats running for Congress in CD2:

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GOP Congress Candidate Lea “Chapter 7” Peterson Squirms on Trump Question

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Lea Marquez Peterson filed for a Chapter 7 bankruptcy to unload $3.2 million in debt, tax liens and a judgment.
Lea Marquez Peterson filed for a Chapter 7 bankruptcy to unload $3.2 million in debt, tax liens, and a judgment.

Lea “Chapter 7” Marquez-Peterson spent most of a recent MSNBC interview ducking questions — at first disavowing Trump because she is a “local candidate,” then later saying she would be “honored” to have him visit Tucson.

Peterson is a Republican candidate for Congress in Tucson’s CD2. There are 7 Democratic candidates vying for the chance to run against her.

No criticism of anti-Hispanic ex-sheriff

She played dumb when it came to Trump’s pardon of convicted ex-sheriff Joe Arpaio. “I really don’t have a position on President Trump’s pardoning of Sheriff Joe.”

REALLY? Arpaio was convicted of criminal contempt of court for refusing to obey court orders to stop his immigration roundups based on racially profiling Hispanic people.

She runs a ring of Hispanic chambers of commerce that she says has 1,800 members, but they serve as platforms for Governor Ducey and other Republican officials.

She said she’d likely support a discharge effort in House of Representatives to force a vote on legislation to support Dreamers. She defended Trump’s calling immigrants as “animals,” because she said he was referring to gang members from Mexico.

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Martha McSally Exposed as the Worst Kind of Politician

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Martha McSally video
Even among the hard right, McSally’s announcement video ad was received as confusing, weird, and ultra-Trumpian.

On a beautiful day in January, retired Air Force Colonel Martha McSally, the elusive Arizona Republican Congresswoman from Tucson, who has incredibly not held a Town Hall in close to three years, stood in front of a small crowd of VIPs congregated in a private airplane hangar (east of Tucson) and declared her candidacy for Arizona Senate. Her rally was an over the top, hyper-nationalistic “barn burner” of an occasion, where McSally told the crowd that she was ready to – as they say in the Air Force: Fly, Fight and Win.

McSally dressed up in her old A-10 flight suit, awkwardly rattled off some sort of racist stuff about the Mexican-American border, Sharia Law, and Trump’s Wall – then hopped in the back seat of a shiny WWII T-6 vintage trainer plane. She was then flown, by another pilot to Phoenix and Prescott for further campaign rallies – it was over-the-top self-aggrandizement.

U.S. Rep Martha McSally, a two-term Republican from Tucson and a former Air Force combat pilot is running for the same Senate seat which U.S. Senator Jeff Flake will retire from following his fiery rebuke of President Trump’s fascist tendencies on the Senate floor. The three-candidate, dogfight of a primary pits McSally, (the clear choice of the GOP establishment), against pardoned Sheriff Arpaio of Fountain Hills and conspiracy theorist Kelli Ward, a former state senator from Lake Havasu City, both of whom will be battling to win the party’s conservative base. Just last week, McSally was endorsed by our state’s former governor, Jan Brewer.

Confusing and weird

In the digital ad that accompanied her “Fly, Fight, Win” campaign rallies, McSally walks among aircraft and bizarrely declares:

“I refused to bow down to Sharia Law, and like our president, I am tired of DC politicians and their BS excuses – I am a fighter pilot and I talk like one. That’s why I told Washington Republicans to grown a pair of ovaries and get the job done.”

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New Poll: Sinema Beats McSally, Ward or Arpaio in US Senate Race

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Sinema vs McSally, Ward, Arpaio

Regardless who the Republicans choose as their candidate for the Arizona US Senate seat, a new poll shows Democratic Congress member Kyrsten Sinema winning against them.

The survey by OH Predictive Insights and ABC15 says that the key reason is independent voters, who have a very negative view of GOP leader President Trump, and the negative view that voters in general have of Republicans Kelli Ward, Joe Arpaio, and Martha McSally.

And this is despite the 12% advantage that the GOP has (1,223,219 registered Republicans) over Democrats (1,090,310 registered Democrats) in Arizona. The survey sample reflected the Republican +12-point advantage over Democrats.

Democrats are unified

“The issue we are consistently seeing in the numbers is that Democrats are unified, Republicans are less united, and the all-important Independent voters are trending anti-Republican/Trump” said Mike Noble, managing partner at OH Predictive Insights of Phoenix. “The factors to look for will be if there are enough voters that do not view Trump favorably that still vote the Republican party.”

The survey did not mention Democrat Deedra Abboud, an attorney and Muslim-American community activist, whom Sinema faces in the August 28 primary.

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