Tag Archives: Kyrsten Sinema

New Poll: Sinema and McSally in Statistical Tie in US Senate Race

  • Sinema leads McSally, 48-44 percent, an improvement for McSally from 48-42 percent in June, but still behind for a red state. This is within the 4% margin of error of the poll.
  • Sinema leads Arpaio by a huge margin at 54-36 percent (+18). Sinema also has a double-digit lead against Ward; 51-41 percent (+10).
  • McSally holds an eight-point lead over Ward; 20-point lead over Arpaio.

A new poll from OH Predictive Insights of Phoenix, Arizona has put Representative Martha McSally in the lead of the Republican primary, but continuing to trail in the general election to Representative Kyrsten Sinema. The poll also finds that Republicans struggle with moderate voters and their disapproval of President Donald Trump. They believe this continues to hurt their chances in the Senate race as opinions of the President become more polarized.

Arizona’s OH Predictive Insights and ABC15 Arizona (OHPI/ABC15) teamed up to find out who is currently winning the Senate race and why.

“The Arizona Senate contest is tightening and expect the attacks to ramp up as we head closer to election day,” said Mike Noble, managing partner and chief pollster at OH Predictive Insights, a Phoenix-based research polling company. “We have a better chance of finding a photo of Sheriff Joe Arpaio wearing pink underwear and eating green bologna than to see him as the next elected Senator of Arizona.” Continue reading

Arizona Will Have a Democratic US Senator, So Long As…

Martha McShifty, Kooki Ward, Evil Joe and Congress member Kyrsten Sinema

Martha McShifty, Kooki Ward, Evil Joe and Congress member Kyrsten Sinema

Two new polls show that Arizona will have a Democratic US Senator — but that depends if Democrats actually become politically active and work for a candidate. And we know from the 2016 election how accurate polls can be.

✪ “In a GOP state that President Trump carried by not quite four points, the Democrats are positioned to pick up a Senate seat in their efforts to gain the majority of the upper chamber,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of the Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.

When the GOP candidates are matched against Democrat Kyrsten Sinema in hypothetical general election contests, Sinema leads all three. Sinema (57%) is strongest against Arpaio (32%) where she is ahead by 25 points. Sinema’s (49%) lead narrows against McSally (38%) to 11 points. Sinema is also ahead of Ward by 10 points, 48% to 38%.

✪ Echoing this projection, a new Emerson College ePoll finds Rep. Kyrsten Sinema in the lead for the Democratic nomination and also ahead of her three Republican rivals in hypothetical head to head match ups.

In the head-to-head matchup, Sinema leads all her Republican challengers. McSally appears to be the strongest competition (trailing Sinema 40% to 32%), while Arpaio (trailing 54% to 30%), and would most likely have the most difficult time defending the seat for the Republican Party if he was to receive the nomination.
Continue reading

John C. Scott Radio: Who will be the Winners in US Senate, Governor and Tucson’s CD2 Congress Races

The John C. Scott Political Forum - 1030 KVOI AM

The John C. Scott Political Forum – 1030 KVOI AM

Click below to hear broadcaster John C. Scott interview writer Larry Bodine of the Blog for Arizona on a recent radio program covering the Arizona race for US Senate, the race for Governor and the Democratic primary for Congress in Tucson’s CD2.

Topics covered:

US Senate:

    Subscribe to my weekly Getting Active in Local Politics newsletter at http://eepurl.com/dmzvUb. Then go to a meeting and Get Active in Local Politics!
  • Kyrsten Sinema — she’s now running ads as if she’s in the general election. She running on three winning issues: access to healthcare, better education and creating jobs that pay well.
  • Republicans are running on losing issues: fear of immigrants, the Second Amendment and repealing Obamacare.
  • Martha McSally: a new poll shows her in the lead against Kelli Ward and evil Joe Arpaio. McSally is running anti-immigrant ads, but this will doom her in general election. She’s known as “Marty McShifty.” She flip-flopped on immigration and on supporting Trump. Now she brags, “I get invited to the White House all the time.”
  • Joe Arpaio is a disgrace, embarrassing even Republicans.
  • Kelli Ward is pro-war, anti-immigration and pro-guns in schools — kissing up to the tea party.
  • On YouTube, McSally’s top recent video got 880 views. In comparison Sinema’s announcement for running got 25,000 views, her video on affordable healthcare got 6,000 views, and video about her brother Paul got 9,000 views.
  • 7 Democrats running for Congress in CD2: Continue reading

Congress attempts a discharge petition for DACA and the DREAMers

There is a move afoot in Congress by a handful of Republicans worried about losing in November to use a discharge petition to force a vote on DACA and the DREAMers that GOP Congressional leadership pushed aside during the continuing resolution (CR) budget battles earlier this year. House Republicans, Defying Leaders, Move to Force Immigration Votes:

More than a dozen House Republicans defied Speaker Paul D. Ryan on Wednesday and moved to force a vote on immigration in the House, aiming to settle the uncertain futures of so-called Dreamers, young immigrants who were brought to this country illegally as children.

The group is gathering signatures for a so-called discharge petition, a parliamentary maneuver that could be used to circumvent Mr. Ryan by bringing legislation to the House floor with the support of a majority of members. The party out of power often uses such petitions, but they rarely succeed because a signature from a member of the party in power is seen as a betrayal of leadership.

This time around, 17 Republicans had signed as of Wednesday afternoon.

“We are well aware that the speaker’s preference was not to have this process,” said Representative Carlos Curbelo, Republican of Florida, who introduced the petition Wednesday morning. “I’ve made the argument to the speaker personally that this process actually empowers him.”

If nine more Republicans sign on, along with all House Democrats, the group will be able to revive an immigration debate that had appeared all but dead. Its goal is to force debate on four immigration-related measures, including one of the speaker’s choosing.

Under a little-used rule known as Queen of the Hill, the measure that received the most votes would be adopted, and advance to the Senate, so long as a majority of the House voted in favor. Representative Jeff Denham, Republican of California and the architect of the strategy, said such a rule could be brought up on the first and third Monday of every month. The next opportunity to do so, he said, would be June 11.

Continue reading

New Poll: Sinema Beats McSally, Ward or Arpaio in US Senate Race

Sinema vs McSally, Ward, Arpaio

Regardless who the Republicans choose as their candidate for the Arizona US Senate seat, a new poll shows Democratic Congress member Kyrsten Sinema winning against them.

The survey by OH Predictive Insights and ABC15 says that the key reason is independent voters, who have a very negative view of GOP leader President Trump, and the negative view that voters in general have of Republicans Kelli Ward, Joe Arpaio, and Martha McSally.

And this is despite the 12% advantage that the GOP has (1,223,219 registered Republicans) over Democrats (1,090,310 registered Democrats) in Arizona. The survey sample reflected the Republican +12-point advantage over Democrats.

Democrats are unified

“The issue we are consistently seeing in the numbers is that Democrats are unified, Republicans are less united, and the all-important Independent voters are trending anti-Republican/Trump” said Mike Noble, managing partner at OH Predictive Insights of Phoenix. “The factors to look for will be if there are enough voters that do not view Trump favorably that still vote the Republican party.”

The survey did not mention Democrat Deedra Abboud, an attorney and Muslim-American community activist, whom Sinema faces in the August 28 primary.

Continue reading

GOP Strategist Says Republicans May Lose in Races Across Arizona

Republican Strategist Sam Stone

Republican Strategist Sam Stone

Speaking on KVOI radio 1030 in Tucson, Republican strategist Sam Stone says there may be statewide losses for Republican candidates in the mid-term elections.

“I do think we’re heading into something of a [blue] wave. … If you’re in Wisconsin and other states, Democrats have been undervoting in the last three cycles now and they’re going to come out, absolutely. The question is, are Republicans? So far, the answer in the special elections has been ‘no.’ We’re fat and happy with the presidency,” he said. 

Stone is Chief of staff of Republican City Councilman Sal DiCiccio in Phoenix and a former campaign advisor to Martha McSally. He was interviewed on the John C. Scott political forum, which is now on the radio Saturdays 4 to 6 pm.

Asked if there will be a “blue wave” in Arizona, he said, “potentially a little bit.” He said Democrats may win the races for Secretary of State and Superintendent of Public Instruction.

The race for in Tucson’s CD2

He foresees a Republican defeat in Tucson’s Congressional District 2, even as he sneered, “the Democratic bench that is running in CD2 is pretty pathetically weak. You’ve got a carpetbagger and a bunch of people who Lea Marquez Peterson would normally slaughter. Whoever comes out of that may well win that race.”

The leading Republican contender is Lea Marquez-Peterson, the CEO of several Hispanic chambers of commerce and owner of bankrupt gas stations. See Fear Dominates Secret Tucson GOP CD 2 Congressional Candidate Forum.

Though people disagree, former congresswoman Ann Kirkpatrick is seen as the Democratic front-runner in a primary contest with Mary Matiella, Billy Kovacs, Bruce Wheeler, Matt Heinz, Babara Sherry and others.

Stone said president Trump’s “waned popularity” is a problem for Marquez-Peterson. “Lea has the advantage of clarity that didn’t exist for Martha McSally in the last three years. … The electorate that first elected Martha McSally [in 2014], both in both the Republican primary and general election, is not the electorate that is enamored of Trump. You can run away from him. The electorate that is enamored of him is about 40% of the Republican primary base. She [Marquez-Peterson] has a relatively open primary, she really is not contested very much. So for her, doesn’t need to stray into Trump territory.”

President Trump’s base is “30% of the Republican primary base, and it incredibly strong with him. The rest of the folks who went along [with Trump] voted against Hillary Clinton and for Neil Gorsuch and for a conservative majority supreme court. If he continues to ignore and really inflame larger swaths of the country, those folks aren’t necessarily with him, that voted for him,” Stone said.

Continue reading