Tag Archives: special election

CD 8: ‘There’s something happening here …’

Taegan Goddard at the Political Wire uses rounding to make the argument that Lesko’s Margin Shrinks to Just 4 Points in the CD8 special election:

Although early results showed that Debbie Lesko (R) beat Hiral Tipirneni (R) in Arizona’s special House election by six points, 53% to 47%, the Republican’s winning margin decreased after new votes were counted: Lesko 52%, Tipirneni 48%.

Current Spread: 4.8%

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Martin Longman at the Political Animal Blog has an insightful analysis of this special election:

Harry Enten of CNN makes three important observations about the results in yesterday’s special election for Arizona’s Eighth Congressional District. Debbie Lesko, a Republican state senator, appears to have defeated Democrat Hiral Tipirneni, a physician, by five or six points [now under 5].  But it’s a district that preferred Mitt Romney to Barack Obama by 25 points and Donald Trump to Hillary Clinton by 21 points.  Overall, AZ-08 is twenty-five points more Republican than the nation as a whole. This Republican underperformance isn’t new; it’s part of a pattern we’ve seen this year and last in special elections where the Democrats are consistently doing much better than they have in the recent past.

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Enten notes that “Including Arizona 8, the average improvement for the Democrats has been 17 percentage points versus the partisan baseline. That’s better than any party out of power has done in the lead-up to a midterm cycle since at least 1994.”

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CD 8 Special Election Day

The CD 8 special election today is just the first in a “two-fer” election this year. November is the grand prize. Close counts in horseshoes and hand grenades, and “two-fer” special elections.

Donald Trump won this district by 21 points. A single digit finish for Democrat Hiral Tipirneni is still a “win” because it will attract DNC and outside group money this fall that she has not received in this special election.

The New York Times takes notice today, Special Election: Republicans Are Dominant But Still Nervous:

We’re watching Tuesday’s special election in Arizona closely, not because we expect the Democrats to stage an upset (the congressional district is solidly Republican), but because Republicans are showing concern over the outcome. Here’s what makes this House race interesting.

The district is deeply red.

Debbie Lesko, a former Republican state senator, is facing the Democrat Hiral Tipirneni, a doctor, in the race for the Phoenix-area seat that is reliably Republican.

After the district lines were redrawn in 2012, the district has voted Republican in the past three elections, and it has supported Republican presidential nominees by large margins.

Donald J. Trump won the district by more than 20 percentage points in 2016. Four years earlier, Mitt Romney had won it by almost 25 points.

The Eighth District seat was vacated by Representative Trent Franks, a Republican who resigned after he was revealed to have offered $5 million to an aide in exchange for carrying his child.

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Tea-Publicans are trying to change the vacancy in office law to protect Senator John McCain’s seat

Tea-Publicans in the Arizona legislature are trying to change the long-established law on vacancies occurring in office for U.S. Senate in the event that Senator John McCain steps down or dies early, triggering a special election for his Senate seat this year.

The Arizona Capitol Times reports Arizona Senate moves to change rules for replacing McCain:

The Republican-controlled Arizona Legislature is moving to ensure that ailing Sen. John McCain’s seat isn’t on the November ballot if he leaves office, but Democrats plan to block the effort.

The effort emerged Tuesday as the state Senate put an emergency clause on a bill, HB 2538, changing how members of Congress who die or resign are replaced.

U.S. Senate vacancies are filled by a governor’s appointee, with the seat on the next general election ballot. The secretary of state has interpreted that to mean that if McCain’s seat is vacated by May 31, it would be on the August primary and November general election ballot. The new proposal changes that to 150 days before the primary, or March 31 of this year. That takes McCain’s seat out of play.

McCain was diagnosed with brain cancer last summer and has been recovering in Arizona since before Christmas. He was hospitalized over the weekend for intestinal surgery needed to stem an infection and remains in a Phoenix hospital in stable condition.

The emergency clause requires a two-thirds vote, and Democratic Sen. Steve Farley said that won’t happen.

“They’re trying to make it really easy to appoint someone to two and a half years without an election to a U.S. Senate seat should the current holder of that Senate seat resign or no longer be able to hold office,” Farley said. “The thing is, we’re all going to vote against it as Democrats, so they won’t get their emergency. It’s silly for them to put it on and think we won’t notice.”

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CD 8 special election update

Well this is interesting. In the CD 8 special election to replace the disgraced Trent Franks, first-time Democratic candidate Hiral Tipirneni has more popular support from small donors than the GOP candidate bought and paid for by the “Kochtopus,” Debbie Lesko. Hiral Tipirneni outraises Debbie Lesko as Arizona’s CD8 race enters final stage:

Democrat Hiral Tipirneni outraised Republican Debbie Lesko as their race for a vacant Arizona congressional seat entered its final stage, campaign finance records show.

Tipirneni built her modest financial advantage on the strength of small-dollar donors, who collectively provided her with more money than Lesko took in from all individuals.

Lesko closed much of the financial gap by raking in significantly more money from political-action committees and other special interests than Tipirneni, but had relatively little cash as of April 4, the cutoff for the report.

Overall, Tipirneni raised $434,000 from all sources between Feb. 8 and April 4. Lesko raised $367,000 from all sources in the same period. Tipirneni ended the period with $125,000 on hand compared to $54,000 for Lesko.

But Republican groups, who have seen recent GOP losses in Alabama and rural Pennsylvania, have kicked in about $700,000 in outside spending to help boost Lesko in the conservative-leaning district.

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POLITICO looks at the CD 8 Special Election

POLITICO reports on the CD 8 Special Election, and you gotta laugh at the headline: GOP scrambles to avert another election dumpster fire:

National Republicans are moving to head off another special election fiasco — this time in a deep-red Arizona congressional district teeming with retirees that would never register as even remotely competitive in a normal election year.

Two weeks after the party’s stunning defeat in a conservative district in southwestern Pennsylvania, Republicans are funneling hundreds of thousands of dollars into Arizona’s 8th District, which President Donald Trump won by more than 20 percentage points in 2016.

The National Republican Congressional Committee on Monday launched a coordinated, $170,000 TV buy with the campaign of candidate Debbie Lesko, according to a source familiar with the purchase. The Congressional Leadership Fund, a deep-pocketed GOP super PAC, is planning to spend about $100,000 on a phone and digital effort aimed at turning out conservative voters. Early voting starts on Wednesday.

The Republican National Committee, meanwhile, is spending about $280,000 on a field operation to bolster Lesko. She’s running to replace GOP Rep. Trent Franks, an eight-term congressman who resigned from his seat last year after reports that he pressed female aides to serve as a surrogate mother. Trump’s political team is also considering a range of options for getting involved in the race.

Republicans insist the efforts are precautionary and that they fully expect to prevail in an April 24 special election. Two senior party officials who’ve reviewed polling in recent days said Lesko held a double-digit lead.

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Conor Lamb poised to win PA 18 special congressional election

Democrat Conor Lamb, a 33-year-old former federal prosecutor who served as a lawyer in the Marine Corps and a moderate Democrat, is poised to win the special election In Pennsivania’s 18th congressional district, a solid Republican district that Democrats did not even challenge in 2014 and 2016, and that Donald Trump carried by 20 points.

Republicans spent almost 11 million dollars trying to defend this seat, and sent the President, Vice President, and Donny Jr. to campaign for Rick Sacone.

Conor Lamb leads by 579 votes this morning, with only a handful of absentee ballots yet to be counted from sparsely populated Greene County (only 4,663 ballots cast, which Rick Scaccone carried 57-41%).

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Last Updated Time: Mar 14, 2018 7:32:52 AM

The Pittsburgh Post-Gazzette reports Too close to call: More absentee ballots being counted for Lamb, Saccone in District 18 special election:

They said it was going to be close, and it was. The race between Republican Rick Saccone and Democrat Conor Lamb for the 18th District was in a near tie Tuesday night, but with absentee ballots still out Mr. Lamb told his supporters, “We did it.”

Mr. Saccone, of Elizabeth Township, and Mr. Lamb, of Mt. Lebanon, had a hard-fought special election campaign flooded with money and national attention.

With 100 percent of the vote count in, Mr. Lamb was ahead by more than 600 votes. However, absentee and provisional ballots were still being counted overnight. Washington County finished tallying early Wednesday morning, showing Lamb with 609 votes and Saccone, 547.

Greene County absentee votes were still out.

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