The Battle for Baja Arizona Begins!

Posted by AzBlueMeanie:

Now that we have tentative legislative district maps from the Arizona Independent Redistricting Commission (AIRC), let's take a look at legislative races in Baja Arizona.

Legislative District 1 (Cochise Co., Graham Co., Greenlee Co., Eastern Pima Co.) This district has a 20.6% GOP advantage for competitiveness, which means it is as noncompetitive as the current District 30.

Senator Gail Griffin (R-Hereford) is the incumbent senator. Former Rep. Patricia Fleming (D-Sierra Vista) has filed to run for the Senate in the current District 25, but is now in District 1. Newcomer Robert Leach (D-Sierra Vista) has filed to run for the Senate in District 30, but is also now in District 1.

In the House are current incumbent Representatives Peggy Judd (R-Wilcox), David Gowan (R-Sierra Vista), and David Stevens (R-Sierra Vista). Brenda Barton (R-Safford) has already moved out of the district to Payson, AZ. Party representation in Arizona Legislature debated. Pick two.

Democratic challenger Mark Stonebraker (D-Sierra Vista) has filed to run for the House.

Legislative District 2 (Santa Cruz County, I-19 corridor in Pima County). This District has a 13.6% Democratic advantage for competitiveness, and is a Hispanic Voting Rights Act District. That sound you just heard are the heads of Tea-Publicans in Green Valley exploding — they are no longer part of GOP-friendly District 30, and will likely be represented by Democrats for the first time. Pobrecitos!

Senator Linda Lopez (D-Tucson) is the incumbent senator. The new district has no incumbent House members.

Legislative District 3 (South Tucson and Downtown-West Tucson). This District has a 37.4% Democratic advantage for competitiveness, and is a Hispanic Voting Rights Act District. This is a safe Democratic district.

This district will shake out over the next few months. Senator Olivia Cajero Bedford (D-Tucson) just barely got drawn into the GOP-friendly District 11, but she vows to move to a house she owns in the new District 3. Some upset with redistricting panel's new legislative lines – East Valley Tribune. That would make her the incumbent Senator.

In the House there are incumbent Representatives Macario Saldate (D-Tucson) and Sally Ann Gonzales (D-Tucson) from the current District 27, and Representatives Daniel Patterson (D-Tucson) and Dr. Matt Heinz (D-Tucson) from the current District 29. I have heard that Matt Heinz plans to move to the new District 10 to be closer to his real job at the hospital. This looks like a Democratic primary at the moment.

Legislative District 10 (City of Tucson, Northeast Tucson). This District has only a 4.4% Democratic advantage for competitiveness, making it a competitive district.

Senator "Don't make me angry" Frank Antenori (R-Tucson) is the incumbent Senator if he decides not to run for Congress. Antenori frequently says he resents the "(R-Tucson)" designation because he hates those "dirty effin' hippies in Tucson." Now that his district contains substantially more of these "dirty effin' hippies in Tucson" than the GOP-friendly District 30, they will make Antenori pay for his insolence. Sweet! Former Rep. David Bradley (D-Tucson), who represented District 28 before running for the Corporation Commission in 2010, has filed to run for the Senate.

In the House there are incumbent Representatives Ted Vogt (R-Tucson) from the current District 30, and Bruce Wheeler (D-Tucson) from the current District 28. As I indicated, Rep. Matt Heinz is rumored to be moving into the new District 10. This is a district ripe for some Democratic pick-ups.

Legislative District 9 (City of Tucson, Northwest Tucson). This District has a 7.2% Democratic advantage for competitiveness, making it a competitive district.

Senator Paula Aboud (D-Tucson) is the incumbent Senator, but is termed out in 2012. Representative Steve Farley (D-Tucson) is in the new District 9 and will run for the Senate.

In the House are incumbent Representatives Terri Proud (R-Tucson) and Vic Williams (R-Tucson). Williams has filed an exploratory committee for the Pima County Board of Supervisors. There is a crowded GOP primary for this District One Supervisor seat, so we will see which contest he chooses. Teabagger Adam Kwasman (R-Tucson) has filed to run for the House.

Democratic challengers for the House seats include Mohur Sarah Sidhwa (D-Tucson), the former Democratic Chair of District 28 who ran for a House seat in 2010, and newcomer Victoria Steele (D-Tucson), a former Tucson newscaster. This is a district ripe for some Democratic pick-ups.

Legislative District 4 (Western Pima Co., Western Pinal Co., Southern Yuma Co.) This District has a 8.4% Democratic advantage for competitiveness, and is a Hispanic Voting Rights Act District.

Senator Don "Tequila" Shooter (R-Yuma) is the incumbent senator. This Tea Party wingnut should be vulnerable in this new district to a Democratic challenger.

In the House is incumbent Representative Lynne Pancrazi (D-Yuma). This is a district ripe for some Democratic pick-ups.

[It appears that Rep. Russ Jones (R-Yuma) just barely got drawn into the new District 13 (Northern Yuma Co., Western Maricopa Co.) a safe GOP district with a 29% advantage for competitiveness.]

Legislative District 11 (Northern Pima Co., Southern Pinal Co.) This district has a 16.4% GOP advantage for competitiveness, which is likely noncompetitive.

The new District 11 pits incumbent senators Cap'n Al Melvin (R-Tucson) against Steve Smith (R-Maricopa). If they primary each other this could be entertaining.

Democratic challenger Jo Holt (D-Oro Valley) has filed to run for the Senate.

There are no House incumbents in the new District 11.

Legislative District 8 (Eastern Pinal Co., Gila Co.) This District has only a 2.2% GOP advantage for competitiveness, making it a competitive district.

Representative Frank Pratt (R-Casa Grande) is the only incumbent in this new district. I would expect to see former state senator Rebecca Rios (D-Apache Junction) to run for the Senate seat.

So there you have it. There are several opportunities for Baja Arizona Democrats to pick up seats in the next legislature and to rid ourselves of some of the most egregious Tea-Publicans in Baja Arizona who have done the bidding of their masters from the state of Maricopa. With a large number of open seats there should be competitive races.

Expect to see a rush of candidate filings in January.

UPDATE: I have been told that Dr. Matt Heinz may be looking to move to District 9 rather than District 10. This would create a Democratic primary for the House seat in District 9.

Rep. Daniel Patterson reportedly is looking to move to District 2, where there are currently no incumbent House members. This would shake out the District 3 House races.