Historical trends point to a Blue Wave election in November, according to political strategist Doug Sosnik, except that Republicans have far more money and voters view both political parties negatively.
Democrats need to flip only 3 seats to take back the House, and 37 races are considered competitive. Dems need to pick up 4 seats to take back the Senate majority, and there are 9 battleground states.
➜ Trump is a ball and chain for Republicans, because Americans overwhelmingly oppose Trump’s war in Iran, which has cost $115 Billion over 155 days.
➜ His approval rating on the economy is at the lowest point ever during his time in the White House. More than 60% of Americans are pessimistic about the economy.
➜ 59% of voters believe the country is on the wrong track—the all-time lowest approval rating.
➜ Trump’s approval rating has plummeted among women, young voters in Gen Z, Latinos and Independents since 2024.
➜ Trump will likely be impeached but not convicted, because the Senate requires a 2/3 vote to oust the overwhelmingly unpopular President.
History on the side of Democrats
“Based on previous midterm election results, Democrats should be on track for one of the largest electoral victories in the last 32 years,” Sosnik said. Since World War II, the incumbent party has lost congressional seats in all but two midterm elections (1998 & 2002).
In the 2026 primary elections, enthusiastic Democrats have:
➜ Cast more than 16 million votes, compared to Republicans’ 12.4 million votes.
➜ Increased their vote share by 40% from 2022 while Republican turnout decreased by 6%.
➜ Experienced a higher turnout in more than 90% of House primaries, compared to 2022.
Even Fox News reported that among the voters most likely to turn out, Democrats enjoy a strong margin of support over Republicans. Fox even reported that Democrats have an edge over Republicans on major issues like income inequality, healthcare, inflation and prices, the economy and foreign policy.
Here’s the problem
Americans view both political parties negatively, according to the Pew Research Center, saying this is because of gridlock and inaction, negative partisanship, polarization and extremism.
I’ll add an additional view: Congress has become a nursing home for mentally and physically disabled geriatrics. The 119th Congress is not just older than the American public; it is also one of the oldest Congresses ever.
- Chuck Grassley — Senate (R-Iowa), age 92. Grassley has been in office for 50 years. He has hearing problems; hip surgery after a fall (2023); hospitalized for an infection (2024); gallbladder/gallstone removal procedure (2026); tested positive for COVID-19 (2020).
- Eleanor Holmes Norton — House (D-DC) age 88–89. A D.C. police report from an October 2025 fraud incident described her as being in “early stages of dementia.”
- Hal Rogers — House (R-KY) age 87–88. Rogers has been in the House for 44 years, and was hospitalized after a car accident in D.C. (2024).
- Maxine Waters — House (D-CA) age ~87.
- Steny Hoyer — House (D-MD) age 86. He’s been in the House for 44 years.
- Nancy Pelosi — House (D-CA) age 85–86.
- Jim Clyburn — House (D-SC) age ~85.
- Mitch McConnell — Senate (R-KY) age 84. He was born during World War II. McConnell has been in the Senate for 40 years. He is currently hospitalized, with issues including concussions from falls in 2026 and 2023, bizarre freezing episodes in 2023, and longstanding mobility problems tied to childhood polio.
Meanwhile, Sen. Lindsey Graham died in office from a tear in his heart on July 11 at age 71. Sen. Dianne Feinstein (CA-D) died in office at age 90 in 2023 due to facial paralysis, vision and balance problems, encephalitis linked to a 2023 shingles outbreak, and falls. She missed 91 consecutive floor votes.
There is a pronounced trend of voters favoring younger, progressive primary challengers over long-time incumbents in federal election campaigns. This shift represents a growing “outsider fervor” and generational frustration with the older establishment.
Republican financial advantage
The Republican National Committee reported $128 million cash on hand with no debt. In contrast, the Democratic National Committee reported $16.3 million in cash on hand but also $18.5 million in debt.
Nevertheless, Democratic Senate candidates have raised far more money than their Republican rivals so far this year in several crucial contests, new campaign finance filings show. The cash influx could give the party out of power an edge as Democrats seek to take back the chamber.
James Talarico, the Democratic nominee for Senate in Texas, had by far the most impressive campaign haul: $54.5 million raised so far this year through his main campaign committee, compared with $3.9 million secured by his Republican opponent, Ken Paxton.
In one key election in the Texas Senate District 9 special election runoff (January 31, 2026), Republican Leigh Wambsganss raised more than six times as much as Democrat Taylor Rehmet in a deep-red Texas state Senate district—yet Rehmet won by more than 14 percentage points.
Democrat Rehmet flipped the Fort Worth-area seat the GOP had held since 1991 — a district Trump carried by roughly 17 points in 2024.
The path to a Democratic comeback is real, but it is not guaranteed. Republicans hold a massive financial edge, voters remain disgusted with both parties, and the 2026 battlefield will be shaped as much by turnout and candidate quality as by national mood. Even so, the numbers point to a Democratic Party with momentum, an energized base, plus a Republican President who is an ever-heavier liability for the GOP.
If November follows the historical pattern, the result could be the latest reminder that when Americans sour on the status quo, they usually make the party in power pay first.
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