Posted by AzBlueMeanie:
The national polling data has been remarkably stable for well over a month now, with most of the major polls showing Obama fluctuating in a range of 49-53% and McCain fluctuating in a range of 40-46%. The daily tracker polls show some statistical noise with occasional movement of a point or two on any given day, but over the long-term it has averaged out and remained stable. McCain has not demonstrated any momentum to close the gap.
From Talking Points Memo TPM Track Composite (10/27/08):
• Gallup: Obama 53%, McCain 43%, with a ±2% margin of error, compared to a 52%-43% Obama lead from yesterday.
• Rasmussen: Obama 51%, McCain 46%, with a ±2% margin of error, compared to a 52%-44% Obama lead from yesterday.
• ABC/Washington Post: Obama 52%, McCain 45%, with a ±3% margin of error, unchanged from yesterday.
• Hotline/Diageo: Obama 50%, McCain 42%, with a ±3.6% margin of error, unchanged from yesterday.
• Research 2000: Obama 50%, McCain 42%, with a ±3% margin of error, compared to a 51%-40% Obama lead yesterday.
• Zogby: Obama 50%, McCain 45%, with a ±2.9% margin of error, compared to a 49%-44% Obama lead from yesterday.
Adding these polls together and weighting them by the square roots of their sample sizes, Obama is ahead 51.2%-44.0%, a lead of 7.2 points, compared to the 51.2%-43.1% Obama lead from yesterday.
The new Pew Research Center Poll is out today (10/28/08) showing McCain's Support Continues Downward Spiral:
Barack Obama leads John McCain by a 52% to 36% margin… This is the fourth consecutive survey that has found support for the Republican candidate edging down. In contrast, since early October weekly Pew surveys have shown about the same number of respondents saying they back Obama. When the sample is narrowed to those most likely to vote, Obama leads by 53% to 38%.
The new Pew Research Center Poll also shows Obama Now Leading McCain In Red Swing States:
Barack Obama is now narrowly leading John McCain among voters in the 10 battleground states that voted for George W. Bush in 2004.
The poll finds that among those voters, Obama is now up 47%-43%, which is within the margin of error, but still noteworthy. In the past few weeks Obama has steadily gained, and now passed, McCain among these voters.
These battleground state results are confirmed in the latest Rasmussen (GOP leaning) Swing-States Poll Rasmussen Reports™.
• Colorado: Obama 50%, McCain 46%, compared to a 51%-46% Obama lead last week.
• Florida: Obama 51%, McCain 47%, compared to a 49%-48% McCain edge last week.
• Missouri: Obama 48%, McCain 47%, compared to a 49%-44% Obama lead last week.
• North Carolina: McCain 49%, Obama 48%, compared to a 50%-48% McCain lead from late last week.
• Ohio: Obama 49%, McCain 45%, compared to a 49%-47% McCain lead last week.
• Virginia: Obama 51%, McCain 47%, compared to a 54%-44% Obama lead from last week.
These polls all have a ±3% margin of error.
American elections are decided by the Electoral College, however (just ask President Al Gore). It takes 270 electoral votes to win. So where do the electoral vote projections stand with one week to go?
Nate Silver, the preeminent baseball statitician who has turned his number crunching skills to analyzing poll data at www.fivethirtyeight.com currently projects Obama at 351.1 and McCain at 186.9.
Chris Cilizza of The Fix blog Pick Your President – 2008 Election Contest at the Washington Post similarly projects Obama 349 and McCain 189.
The RealClearPolitics – Electoral Map currently projects Obama 306, McCain 157, and toss-up states 75. The Pollster.com – 2008 Electoral Map projects Obama 306, McCain 142 and toss-up states 90.
Chuck Todd at the First Read blog at MSNBC McCain's map blues is the most conservative prognosticator in his electoral projections, writing that "One week before the election, Obama leads McCain 286-163, up from his 264-163 advantage a week ago. As we pointed out on Friday, the significance of moving Colorado and Virginia into Obama’s column is this: If Obama wins those two states, plus Nevada, he can still get to 270 — even if he loses Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania."
No candidate this far down this late in an election has ever come back to win. Moreover, unlike Ronald Reagan in 1980, there is no apparent surge (sweet irony) of momentum to McCain late in the campaign. All the momentum is with Barack Obama in the battleground states, all of which were red states in 2004. Obama is playing offense. It is only a question of how big his final electoral vote margin will be, not whether Obama will win. He will.
There is evidence that the McCain-Palin ticket has proven to be a drag on GOP house and senate candidates in the battle of their lives. There is no coattail effect from McCain, but more importantly, there is no bottom-up support for GOP house and senate candidates aiding McCain. The numbers are beginning to gel into a wave election landslide for the Democrats.