Link: Tucson Weekly Blog: CD 8 Poll: Giffords Leads Graf.
Yet further confirmation of the stability and magnitude of Giffords’ lead over Graf. This Wick poll was taken between Sept 20th and 23rd and has an MOE of 4.3%.
This Wick poll shows an 18 point lead for Giffords, at 52% to 34% with 10% undecided. As I pointed out in an earlier post, the Zimmerman (often cited by right wings as the Clinton) poll numbers which showed a drop off for Giffords were just a statistically predicted blip, well within the Margin of Error of the two prior polls. I suggested that the true support for Gabby was between 50 and 52%. This poll simply reaffirms the findings of the other two and confirms that likely level of support.
This is the third poll which has shown Graf consistently stuck at or below 36%. There is no doubt in my mind that this is Graf’s base. There is also no doubt in my mind that he’s going to have significant diffuculty expanding that as long as he contnues to avow support for Bush’s plan to privatize social security. He reaffirmed his support for the Bush plan just recently on talk radio when asked by Paul Eckerstrom, former Chairman of the Pima County Democratic party, whether he continued to support the plan.
I don’t know if it would be possible for Graf to redefine himself with voters at this point, or even that he’d want to if he could; what I do know is that someone with his track record, no matter how stridently he hammers on the immigration issue, is far too extreme in his views even for a significant minority of Republicans in the district. And without those moderate Republican and Independent voters, Randy isn’t going to move much beyond that 36% he’s already got.
The only chance he’s got, in my view, is to trash the hell out of Gabby in the hopes of keeping her voters home this November. I’m expecting to see a viciously negative campaign from Graf. Graf’s base may well tolerate a predominantly negative campaign better than Gabby’s will. They certainly sustained Graf while on the receiving end. My guess is that they’ll not only stick, but relish it, when he’s doing the dishing.
This poll also puts to rest the idiotic notion that Graf’s campaign manager floated that they would be pulling ahead soon based on polling trends. "I’m really looking forward to seeing what your poll does, because in
every poll, we get closer and closer," Gregg said. "We’ll have this
thing won by next week." Guess that didn’t work out so well. Dream on Mr. Gregg. BTW, do you need any help getting your foot out of your mouth?